2020-2021 Excess Deaths in the U.S. General Population by Age and Sex

Link: https://www.soa.org/resources/research-reports/2022/excess-death-us/

Full report: https://www.soa.org/4a55a7/globalassets/assets/files/resources/research-report/2022/excess-death-us.pdf



The data used for this analysis was provided by the CDC as of August 17, 2022 and includes incurred deaths
by week, beginning on December 29, 2019 and going through July 2, 2022. For 2020, the CDC defines Week
1 as ranging from December 29, 2019 through January 4, 2020 and Week 52 as ranging from December 19,
2020 through December 26, 2020, so when reporting on 2020 results, this convention is used. The year
2021 begins on December 27, 2020 and runs through January 2, 2022. For the purposes of this analysis, the
start of the COVID-19 active period is March 22, 2020.
Due to the delay in reporting, the actual deaths have been completed based on factors that vary by age
and sex. These are shown below along with the expectations that are based on the five-year trend after
adjusting for seasonality.

These data are as of August 17, 2022 and exclude deaths that occurred after July 2, 2022. Figure 1 shows
that, for most months, the total A/E ratio is much greater than 100%, while the A/E ratio excluding COVID19 deaths is also greater than 100% by a few percent.

Author(s): Rick Leavitt, ASA, MAAA

Publication Date: August 2022

Publication Site: Society of Actuaries Research Institute

2020 Excess Deaths in the US general population by Age and Sex

Link: https://www.soa.org/resources/research-reports/2021/excess-deaths-gen-population/

Report link: https://www.soa.org/globalassets/assets/files/resources/research-report/2021/excess-deaths-gen-population.pdf



Excluding the first two and a half months of 2020 before COVID-19 deaths were prevalent, the total U.S. mortality A/E ratio ranged between 119% and 121%, with about 84% of the excess deaths identified as due to COVID-19. Considering the full year of 2020, the A/E ranged between 114% and 116%.

Deaths for people under age 15 were lower than expected, but all older ages showed excess mortality. The following table considers the A/E ratios for the period after the emergence of COVID-19 and uses a fiveyear trend on death rates by ages and sex to set the expected deaths.

Author(s): Rick Leavitt, ASA, MAAA

Publication Date: February 2021

Publication Site: Society of Actuaries