Month: October 2022

What the 1970s Can Teach Us About Today’s Inflationary Politics

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://reason.com/2022/10/13/inflation-remixed/

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Excerpt:

American politicians had tried to control inflation before. The presidents and power brokers of the 1970s had tried price controls, public campaigns, pressure programs, blame games, and attempts to redefine basic economic terminology. The parties differed on the specifics, but both seemed to agree that the voting public and the private sector were to blame, not the bureaucrats and politicians in charge.

Inflation, in short, was a political problem, in the sense that it caused problems for politicians. But it wasn’t one America’s politicians knew how to solve.

On the contrary, America’s political class had spent the ’70s failing to fix inflation, or actively making it worse, often with policies designed to address other political and economic problems. That decade’s price hikes were prolonged and exacerbated by political decisions born of short-term thinking, outright cowardice, and technocratic hubris about policy makers’ ability to enact sweeping changes and manage the macroeconomy.

Author(s): Peter Suderman

Publication Date: November 2022

Publication Site: Reason

A colonoscopy study has some wondering if they should have the procedure. What you should know

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/10/health/colonoscopy-study-q-and-a-wellness/index.html

Excerpt:

What did this new study show about the effectiveness of colonoscopies?

In this study, about 12,000 people in Sweden, Poland and Norway got colonoscopies. They saw a 31% reduction in their risk of colon cancer and a 50% reduction in their risk of dying from colon cancer compared with people who were not invited to get a colonoscopy.

Was that about what would be expected?

Some US studies have suggested that colonoscopies are even more effective. One study followed nearly 90,000 health care professionals for 22 years. Some of them chose to receive a screening colonoscopy, and some did not. The researchers estimated that screening colonoscopy was associated with a 40% reduction in the risk of getting colon cancer and a 68% reduction in the risk of dying of colon cancer.

Why would there be different success rates in the three European countries compared with the US?

Dominitz says one reason might be that most people in the European study didn’t have sedation when they got their colonoscopies. Only 23% of the patients in the European study received sedation, but virtually everyone having a colonoscopy in the US gets it. Colonoscopies can be uncomfortable, and doctors might, without even realizing it, be less thorough if people are in pain. Thoroughness – getting the scope into the folds and crevices of the colon – is important for finding growths called polyps. The more polyps doctors are able to find, the more they can reduce the person’s risk of being diagnosed with or dying from colon cancer.

Author(s): Elizabeth Cohen

Publication Date: 11 Oct 2022

Publication Site: CNN

19 GOP Attorneys General Slam BlackRock Over ESG Investments

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.ai-cio.com/news/19-gop-attorneys-general-slam-blackrock-over-esg-investments/

Excerpt:

A group of 19 Republican state attorneys general have written a letter to BlackRock stating that the asset manager is using state pension fund assets in environmental, social and governance investments that “force the phase-out of fossil fuels, increase energy prices, drive inflation and weaken the national security of the United States.”

The eight-page letter outlines how the group believes BlackRock is using “the hard-earned money of our states’ citizens to circumvent the best possible return on investment.”

“Our states will not idly stand for our pensioners’ retirements to be sacrificed for BlackRock’s climate agenda. The time has come for BlackRock to come clean on whether it actually values our states’ most valuable stakeholders, our current and future retirees, or risk losses even more significant than those caused by BlackRock’s quixotic climate agenda,” the letter says.

The attorneys general asked BlackRock to respond by August 19.

Author(s): Amy Resnick

Publication Date: 9 Aug 2022

Publication Site: ai-CIO

The History of the Social Security COLA: A Timeline

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.thinkadvisor.com/2022/10/11/the-history-of-the-social-security-cola-a-timeline/

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Excerpt:

The first Social Security COLA — an 8% benefit increase — happened in 1975. The COLAs were effective in June of the applicable year. Since 1982, adjustments have taken effect in December, with benefit increases reflected in January payments.

Over the years, adjustments have ranged from no adjustment — in both 2009 and 2010 — to a high of 14.3% in 1980. The COLA was 5.9% in 2022.

The 2023 COLA will be 8.7%, the biggest increase since 1981. Here are some thoughts on a few notable past COLAs. Tap or hover your mouse over the graph to see the COLAs for each year.

Author(s): Roger Wohlner

Publication Date: 11 Oct 2022

Publication Site: Think Advisor

Why Aren’t More People Claiming Government Benefits?

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article/why-arent-more-people-claiming-government-benefits/

Excerpt:

When the Biden administration expanded the Child Tax Credit in 2021 with direct cash payments of up to $3,600 to alleviate child poverty, millions of the most vulnerable families never received the automatic payments because they didn’t have a digital connection with the Internal Revenue Service through a previous income tax filing online. The burden was on those families to seek out the public benefit.

To boost awareness, the government launched a messaging campaign to let families know that up to $3,600 a year was waiting for them. But months later, millions of dollars were still unclaimed.

A new study led by Wharton marketing professor Wendy De La Rosa pinpoints the reason why so many Americans left money on the table: The large amount seemed like an abstraction because people don’t think about money on a yearly basis. Through a series of experiments, the researchers found that people were more likely to collect the money if it was conveyed as a monthly or weekly amount — $300 or $69 — similar to how they budget.

Author(s): Angie Basiouny

Publication Date: 11 Oct 2022

Publication Site: Knowledge @ Wharton

Louisiana Divests Nearly $800 Million from BlackRock to Protect Fossil Fuel Industry

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.ai-cio.com/news/louisiana-divests-nearly-800-million-from-blackrock-to-protect-fossil-fuel-industry/

Excerpt:

Louisiana Treasurer John Schroder is divesting $794 million worth of state funds from BlackRock because the world’s largest asset manager’s “blatantly anti-fossil fuel policies would destroy Louisiana’s economy.”

The divestment is in response to BlackRock’s sustainable investing philosophy, and for the firm calling on other companies to embrace net zero investment strategies that would harm the fossil fuel industry, which Schroder notes is a “vital part” of Louisiana’s economy.

“This divestment is necessary to protect Louisiana from actions and policies that would actively seek to hamstring our fossil fuel sector,” Schroder said in a letter to BlackRock CEO Larry Fink. “I refuse to invest a penny of our state’s funds with a company that would take food off tables, money out of pockets and jobs away from hardworking Louisianans.”

When asked to comment, a BlackRock spokesperson said the firm’s view is captured by a line in its Sept. 7 response to a letter it received from a group of 19 Republican state attorneys general saying environmental, social, and governance  investments weaken America’s national security.

Author(s): Michael Katz

Publication Date: 10 Oct 2022

Publication Site: ai-CIO

Old Age Mortality Experience Study Report

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.soa.org/resources/experience-studies/2022/old-age-mortality/

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Excerpt:

The Society of Actuaries (SOA) Research Institute released a report that examines older age mortality (OAM) with a focus on attained ages 70 and above. The report helps determine whether refinements were needed in the 2015 Valuation Basic Tables. Analysis was performed by sex, issue age and attained age, issue year cohorts, smoking risk classification, benefit band, select vs ultimate period, and interactions.

Author(s):

Old Age Mortality Subgroup of the Individual Life Experience Committee

Publication Date: October 2022

Publication Site: Society of Actuaries

The Economic Cost of Gun Violence

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://everytownresearch.org/report/the-economic-cost-of-gun-violence/

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Excerpt:

  • Taxpayers, survivors, families, and employers pay an average of $7.79 million daily in health care costs, including immediate and long-term medical and mental health care, plus patient transportation/ambulance costs related to gun violence, and lose an estimated $147.32 million per day related to work missed due to injury or death. 
  • American taxpayers pay $30.16 million every day in police and criminal justice costs for investigation, prosecution, and incarceration. 
  • Employers lose an average of $1.47 million on a daily basis in productivity, revenue, and costs required to recruit and train replacements for victims of gun violence.
  • Society loses $1.34 billion daily in quality-of-life costs from the suffering and lost well-being of gun violence victims and their families.

Author(s):

Publication Date: 19 July 2022

Publication Site: Everytown Research

The Lending Hole at the Bottom of the Homeownership Market

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.newamerica.org/future-land-housing/reports/the-lending-hole-at-the-bottom-of-the-homeownership-market/

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Abstract:

While conventional wisdom maintains that high home prices are to blame for declining homeownership rates, there is another elusive barrier stopping millions of would-be homeowners: banks are increasingly unwilling to write small dollar mortgages. One fifth of owner-occupied homes in the United States cost less than $100,000, but due to unintended consequences of the Dodd-Frank Act, among other factors, banks are opting out of writing small dollar loans. Instead, more than three quarters of small dollar homes are purchased in cash, often by investors or well-off individuals. This lending gap locks millions of low-and-moderate income families out of homeownership, and exacerbates the racial homeownership gap as these small dollar homes are a critical source of homeownership for many first-time buyers in Black and Hispanic communities.

In this report, the Future of Land and Housing program at New America and the Center for the Study of Economic Mobility (CSEM) at Winston-Salem State University (WSSU) focus on three dimensions of this problem: 1) the unavailability of financing for small dollar loans; 2) the catch-22 of “mortgage standards”; and 3) competition with all-cash buyers at a national level and through a local case study of Winston-Salem and Forsyth County, North Carolina.

Author(s): Sabiha Zainulbhai, Zachary D. Blizard, Craig J. Richardson, Yuliya Panfil

Publication Date: 9 Nov 2021

Publication Site: New America

Successful 10-second one-legged stance performance predicts survival in middle-aged and older individuals

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://bjsm.bmj.com/content/56/17/975

Abstract:

Objectives Balance quickly diminishes after the mid-50s increasing the risk for falls and other adverse health outcomes. Our aim was to assess whether the ability to complete a 10- s one-legged stance (10-second OLS) is associated with all-cause mortality and whether it adds relevant prognostic information beyond ordinary demographic, anthropometric and clinical data.

Methods Anthropometric, clinical and vital status and 10-s OLS data were assessed in 1702 individuals (68% men) aged 51–75 years between 2008 and 2020. Log-rank and Cox modelling were used to compare survival curves and risk of death according to ability (YES) or inability (NO) to complete the 10-s OLS test.

Results Overall, 20.4% of the individuals were classified as NO. During a median follow-up of 7 years, 7.2% died, with 4.6% (YES) and 17.5% (NO) on the 10-s OLS. Survival curves were worse for NO 10-s OLS (log-rank test=85.6; p<0.001). In an adjusted model incorporating age, sex, body mass index and comorbidities, the HR of all-cause mortality was higher (1.84 (95% CI: 1.23 to 2.78) (p<0.001)) for NO individuals. Adding 10-s OLS to a model containing established risk factors was associated with significantly improved mortality risk prediction as measured by differences in −2 log likelihood and integrated discrimination improvement.

Conclusions Within the limitations of uncontrolled variables such as recent history of falls and physical activity, the ability to successfully complete the 10-s OLS is independently associated with all-cause mortality and adds relevant prognostic information beyond age, sex and several other anthropometric and clinical variables. There is potential benefit to including the 10-s OLS as part of routine physical examination in middle-aged and older adults.

Author(s): Araujo CG, de Souza e Silva CG, Laukkanen JA, et al

Publication Date:

Publication history
Accepted April 19, 2022
First published June 21, 2022.
Online issue publication
August 24, 2022

Publication Site: British Journal of Sports Medicine

Citation:

Araujo CG, de Souza e Silva CG, Laukkanen JA, et al

Successful 10-second one-legged stance performance predicts survival in middle-aged and older individuals

British Journal of Sports Medicine 2022;56:975-980.

doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bjsports-2021-105360

From the Archives: “How Dodd-Frank Locks Out the Least Affluent Homebuyers”

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://vpostrel.substack.com/p/from-the-archives-how-dodd-frank?utm_source=substack

Excerpt:

This Axios report on a JPMorgan Chase program giving black and Latino borrowers $5,000 toward down payments or home loan closing costs reminded me of a column I wrote in November [2021].  It’s about one of the most infuriating public policy fiascos I’ve run into in a very long time. Hardly anyone knows about this regulatory devastation of household wealth amog people whose inexpensive homes represented years of thrift and hard work. (The only reason I learned of it is that I happened to meet Craig Richardson at an unrelated conference.) It is absolutely heartbreaking. It reminds me of the famous quote from The Great Gatsby: “They were careless people, Tom and Daisy—they smashed up things and creatures and then retreated back into their money or their vast carelessness or whatever it was that kept them together, and let other people clean up the mess they had made.”

….

About one in five U.S. homes are valued at $100,000 or less. And despite their low prices, they’ve gotten extremely hard to sell. When they move at all, these small-dollar properties tend to go for cash. Lenders increasingly won’t write mortgages for them.

“Over the last decade, origination for mortgage loans between $10,000 and $70,000 and between $70,000 and $150,000 has dropped by 38 percent and 26 percent, respectively, while origination for loans exceeding $150,000 rose by a staggering 65 percent,” reports a new study on small-dollar mortgages from the Center for the Study of Economic Mobility at Winston-Salem State University and the Future of Land and Housing program at the New America think tank. The study is scheduled for release on Tuesday [Nov 9, 2021].

The culprits behind the disappearance of small-dollar mortgages are lending restrictions enacted with good intentions and warped by economic blind spots. Designed to protect borrowers and the financial system, the Dodd-Frank Act regulations passed in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis “increased the fixed costs and the per-loan costs of extending a mortgage,” says the study. The regulation-imposed costs made small-dollar mortgages a lousy proposition for lenders.

Compounding the problem, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau then limited the fees that lenders could charge as closing costs. For profit-oriented lenders, small-dollar mortgages are no longer worth the trouble. At best, they squeeze out the tiniest of margins. At worst, they don’t even cover the fixed cost of processing the loan.

Author(s): Virginia Postrel

Publication Date: 25 June 2022

Publication Site: Virginia’s Newsletter at substack