Category: Public Finance

A Huge Threat to the U.S. Budget Has Receded. And No One Is Sure Why

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/09/05/upshot/medicare-budget-threat-receded.html?smid=url-share

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Excerpt:

For decades, runaway Medicare spending was the story of the federal budget.

Now, flat Medicare spending might be a bigger one.

Something strange has been happening in this giant federal program. Instead of growing and growing, as it always had before, spending per Medicare beneficiary has nearly leveled off over more than a decade.

The trend can be a little hard to see because, as baby boomers have aged, the number of people using Medicare has grown. But it has had enormous consequences for federal spending. Budget news often sounds apocalyptic, but the Medicare trend has been unexpectedly good for federal spending, saving taxpayers a huge amount relative to projections.

….

Some of the reductions are easy to explain. Congress changed Medicare policy. The biggest such shift came with the Affordable Care Act in 2010, which reduced Medicare‘s payments to hospitals and to health insurers that offered private Medicare Advantage plans. Congress also cut Medicare payments as part of a budget deal in 2011.

But most of the savings can’t be attributed to any obvious policy shift. In a recent letter to the Senate Budget Committee, economists at the Congressional Budget Office described the huge reductions in its Medicare forecasts between 2010 and 2020. Most of those reductions came from a category the budget office calls “technical adjustments,” which it uses to describe changes to public health and the practice of medicine itself.

Older Americans appear to be having fewer heart attacks and strokes, the likely result of effective cholesterol and blood pressure medicines that became cheap and widely used in recent years, according to research from Professor Cutler and colleagues. And drug makers and surgeons haven’t developed as many new blockbuster treatments recently — there has been no new Prozac or angioplasty to drive up spending. (Medicare is currently barred by statute from covering the new class of expensive anti-obesity drugs.)

….

Medicare may even wind up saving money because of Covid-19 — because the older Americans who died from the disease tended to have other illnesses that would have been expensive to treat if they had survived, according to an analysis from the Medicare actuary.

Author(s): Sanger-Katz, Margot; Parlapiano, Alicia

Publication Date: 5 Sept 2023

Publication Site: NY Times

No Hope In Sight For Chicago’s Worst-In-The-Nation Pension Plans

Mary Pat Campbell

Link:https://www.forbes.com/sites/ebauer/2023/08/01/no-hope-in-sight-for-chicagos-worst-in-the-nation-pension-plans/?sh=4fd6218f24c2

Excerpt:

Back on July 18, the Equable Institute released the 2023 version of its annual State of Pensions report, which means that, yes, it’s time for another check-in on these infamously-poorly-funded pension plans. Among the wealth of tables is a list of the best and worst-funded of the 58 local pension plans studied, and, yes, you guessed it, the bottom five spots are Chicago plans, with the bottom three at levels far below all others:

  • Municipal employees, 21% funded,
  • Chicago police, 21.8% funded, and
  • Chicago fire, 18.8% funded.

Combined with the Chicago Laborers’ pension fund, with a 41% funded status, the pensions for which the city bears a direct responsibility have a total pension debt on a market value of assets basis of $35 billion. (This data is from the actual reports*, released in May, which doesn’t match the Equable report precisely.) Spot fifth-worst is taken up by the Chicago Teachers, at 42.4% funded, and the first non-Chicago system in their list, Dallas Police & Fire at 45.2%, is twice as well funded, percentage-point-wise, as the Terrible Trio.

…..

What’s more, Ralph Martire and his Center for Tax and Budget Accountability continue to promote what he calls “reamortization” as a solution to the problem, both through an April Chicago Sun Times commentary and through the release of a report, “Understanding – and Resolving Illinois’ Pension Funding Challenges” (which is an update of a prior proposal). This proposal, which is directed at Illinois pensions but is clearly meant based on other comments to be an all-purpose fix, sounds innocuous, as merely a sort of “refinancing” as one might with a mortgage, but it’s really much more as he proposes to

  • Reduce the funded status target from 90% to 80%, based on the claim that the GAO deems this funded status to be the right target for a “healthy” plan (whether he deliberately misleads or not, he is wrong here, the National Association of State Retirement Administrators or NASRA clearly explained more than a decade ago that 100% funding is always the right target and the only significance of an 80% level is that private sector pension law requires plans funded less than 80% to take immediate corrective action rather than have a long-term funding schedule, and the American Academy of Actuaries more explicitly calls this a “myth”);
  • Issue large sums of Pension Obligation Bonds, which were questionable already when they first began promoting this but are now a terrible idea with our current high bond rates, all the more so for a low-credit-rating city such as Chicago; and
  • Move contributions from last day of the fiscal year to the first day, which he argues would be a gain of a year’s investment return while forgetting that it requires the city to have this money on Day 1 and forgo the other uses it would have.

Author(s): Elizabeth Bauer

Publication Date: 1 Aug 2023

Publication Site: Forbes

Chicago Confronts $35B Pension Crisis, Among Nation’s Worst

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.governing.com/finance/chicago-confronts-35b-pension-crisis-among-nations-worst?utm_campaign=Newsletter%20-%20GOV%20-%20Daily&utm_medium=email&_hsmi=266392609&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-908JiZoECoiHOSFWeUAutUv8VbdD2wEgfZjFzCrsEv6iI9JACAt9QL1zdrKBCqmO35ZPGv3sCgZURy904H11nrX4AQ5RWJg5Ti63o3xBq99exXZg0&utm_content=266392609&utm_source=hs_email

Excerpt:

One of Brandon Johnson’s first moves as Chicago mayor was to buy himself time to address the city’s biggest financial problem: the more than $35 billion owed to its pension funds.

Just days after his May inauguration, Johnson persuaded state lawmakers to shelve legislation that would’ve added billions to the pension debt, while pledging to establish a working group to come up with solutions by October.

Now, the clock is ticking for the progressive Democrat to fix the worst pension crisis among major U.S. cities.

Just as Chicago reels from a spate of shootings and carjackings, inequities exacerbated by the pandemic and high-profile corporate departures, its pension gap creates a financial burden that threatens its recovery and the mayor’s agenda.

The situation makes for a cautionary tale for municipalities across the country facing long-neglected contributions and funding shortfalls. Already, the third-largest U.S. city spends roughly $1 of every $5 on pensions, while more than 80 percent of property-tax dollars go toward retirement payouts.

….

In 2022, for the first time, the city put in an actuarially calculated contribution for all four pensions funds – a step that helped it shed the junk rating.

Author(s): Shruti Date Singh, Bloomberg News, TNS

Publication Date: 14 July 2023

Publication Site: Governing

Protecting Social Security for All: Making the Wealthy Pay Their Fair Share Testimony by Stephen C. Goss, Chief Actuary, Social Security Administration United States Senate Committee on the Budget

Mary Pat Campbell

Link:https://www.budget.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/Mr.%20Stephen%20C.%20Goss%20-%20Testimony%20-%20Senate%20Budget%20Committee.pdf

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Excerpt:

First, the 1983 Amendments were an interim solution to the well-understood changing of the age distribution due to the drop in birth rate after 1965. These Amendments were expected to extend the ability to pay scheduled benefits from 1982 to the mid-2050s, with the clear understanding that further changes would be needed by then.

Second, the redistribution of earned income to the highest earners was not anticipated in 1983. This shift resulted in about 8 percent less payroll tax revenue by 2000 than had been expected, with this reduced level continuing thereafter. The severity of the 2007-09 recession was also not anticipated.

Third, with the passage of 40 years since 1983, we clearly see the shortcomings of the 1983 Amendments in achieving “sustainable solvency” for Social Security. We are now in a position to formulate further changes needed, building on the start made in 1983.

Fourth, the long-known and understood shift in the age distribution of the US population will continue to increase the aged dependency ratio until about 2040, and in turn increase the cost of the OASDI program as a percentage of taxable payroll and GDP. Once this shift, which reflects the drop in the birth rate after 1965, is complete, the cost of the program will be relatively stable at around 6 percent of GDP. The unfunded obligation for the OASDI program over the next 75 years represents 1.2 percent of GDP over the period as a whole.

Author(s): Stephen C. Goss, Chief Actuary, Social Security Administration

Publication Date: 12 July 2023

Publication Site: Senate Budget Committee

Detroit police, fire pensioners push back on bankruptcy ruling to extend payments

Mary Pat Campbell

Link:https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/local/detroit-city/2023/07/11/detroit-police-fire-pensioners-push-back-on-ruling-to-extend-payments/70401452007/

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The Police and Fire Retirement System of Detroit filed on Monday a motion for reconsideration, pushing back on a federal bankruptcy judge’s ruling in favor of the Duggan administration’s plan to extend the city’s pension payment obligations over 30 years rather than 20 years.

The city’s police and fire retirees are continuing litigation that has been ongoing since August when the city administration initially filed suit against the pension system to enforce a 30-year pay-out schedule. On June 26, Judge Thomas Tucker ruled in the city’s favor, stating that a 30-year amortization period is “indeed part of the (bankruptcy) Plan of Adjustment and that the Police Fire Retirement System cannot change it.”

The new motion seeks clarification of the court’s possible imposition of a 6.75% rate of return that was specifically set to expire after 10 years under the Plan of Adjustment, the bankruptcy exit plan. After June 30, the pension fund’s rate of return and its amortization funding policy are within the purview of the Police and Fire Retirement System’s Board of Trustees and Investment Committee, according to the pensioners’ filing.

At the 30-year determined rate, the city will complete its debt obligations in 2054. Police and fire retirees want their pension fund to be made whole sooner.

Author(s): Sarah Rahal

Publication Date: 11 July 2023

Publication Site: The Detroit News

First We Get the Money…:$12 Billion to Fund a Just Chicago

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.scribd.com/document/645874607/First-We-Get-the-Money-FINAL-v3#

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Reinstitute the big business head tax: Mayor Johnson should reinstitute the big business head tax to make large corporations pay what they owe for benefiting from the city’s public infrastructure. The head tax existed previously in Chicago, until Mayor Rahm Emanuel eliminated it as a handout to corporations.3 Reinstating the head tax at a level of $33 per employee per year would generate $106 million a year in new revenue.4

….

Institute a city income tax on high earners: Mayor Johnson should lobby Springfield to give the city the authority to institute a municipal income tax on high earners who live or work in the city. A 3.5% tax on household income above $100,000 would bring in an estimated $2.1 billion a year in new revenue, of which $1.6 billion would be from high-earning Chicagoans and $490 million from high-earning commuters.16 By way of comparison, New York and Philadelphia both have municipal income taxes with top rates above 3.7%.17 By exempting the first $100,000 of income from the tax, the city could ensure the tax is progressive without a change in the state constitution.

  Institute a luxury apartment vacancy fee: Mayor Johnson should work withstate officials to implement a vacancy fee on large, luxury apartment buildings with units that sit vacant for more than 12 months at a time. Landlords who own more than 20 units and are asking for a monthly rental price that exceeds the 75th percentile in the city (based on the number of bedrooms) must pay a fee equal to the median rental price in the city on each unit that sits vacant for more than 12 consecutive months, if more than three units in the building sit vacant for more than 12 consecutive months. This would encourage luxury developers to charge more affordable rents that can maintain higher occupancy rates. This policy is designed to encourage landlords to lower rents to avoid having to pay the fee; thus, if it works as intended, we hope that it would eventually not produce any revenue for the city but that it would increase affordable housing options.

Author(s): Saqib Bhatti, Gabriela Noa Betancourt

Publication Date: May 2023

Publication Site: Scribd

Understanding the State and Local Tax Deduction (SALT)

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.cato.org/blog/understanding-salt

Excerpt:


The SALT deduction is still distorting tax policy even in its limited form. For example, the poorly conceived temporary $4,000 bonus deduction proposed in the Tax Cuts for Working Families Act, part of the Republican economic tax package, is the result of SALT politics. The proposal attempts to give additional tax relief to taxpayers concerned by the SALT cap.

As initially proposed by House Republicans in the lead‐​up to 2017, the correct policy is to repeal the SALT deduction entirely. The $10,000 cap was a political compromise necessary to get enough votes for the bill. Raising or lifting the cap significantly reduces revenue, making it harder to extend or expand the tax cuts when they expire at the end of 2025.

Author(s): Adam N. Michel

Publication Date: 22 Jun 2023

Publication Site: Cato

Adverse Effects of Automatic Cost‐​of‐​Living Adjustments to Entitlement and Other Payments

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.cato.org/policy-analysis/adverse-effects-automatic-cost-living-adjustments-entitlement-other-payments

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COLAs for Social Security’s OASDI have had an additional significant fiscal effect. Until recently, the payroll taxes paid for Social Security each year have usually exceeded the cost of benefits paid in that year. This balance was transferred to the general fund of the U.S. Treasury, which in turn issued special Treasury bonds to the Social Security Trust Fund to be redeemed later when taxes collected were less than the benefits paid. The fund balance reached $2.9 trillion at the end of 2020. Then in 2021, the Social Security Trust Fund had to redeem $56.3 billion of those bonds to pay OASDI benefits. Social Security actuaries have calculated that increasingly larger withdrawals will continue until the Trust Fund is fully depleted in early 2035.36 Under current law, once the Trust Fund balance is fully depleted, payments to beneficiaries must be reduced to the level supported by current Social Security taxes.

If Social Security COLAs had been calculated using the combination of C‑CPI‑U and PCEPI, then the Trust Fund balance in 2020 would have been $3.5 trillion, and full depletion of the Trust Fund would have been delayed two more years to 2037. If the price indexes had also been improved to minimize new‐​item bias (the best‐​practices index), the balance in 2020 would have been $4.4 trillion, and full depletion of the fund would have been delayed until 2039 (see Figure 1).

Author(s): John F. Early

Publication Date: 22 Jun 2023

Publication Site: Cato

MBTA retirement fund is headed for a financial reckoning

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.bostonglobe.com/2023/06/19/opinion/mbta-retirement-fund-finances/

Excerpt:

The MBTA Retirement Fund is going over a cliff, and the reasons why are well known. But neither the T nor its unions are in a hurry to do anything about it.

The new MBTA Retirement Fund Actuarial Valuation Report shows the fund’s balance as of Dec. 31, 2022, was $1.62 billion — about $300 million less than what it was just 12 months earlier. Its liability — the amount it will owe current and future T retirees — is over $3.1 billion, meaning the fund is about 51 percent funded. In 2006, it was 94 percent funded. A “death spiral” generally accelerates when retirement system funding dips below 50 percent.

In April, the Pioneer Public Interest Law Center got the MBTA to hand over an August 2022 arbitration decision regarding a pension dispute between the T and its biggest union. It contained a critical win for the authority: Arbitrator Elizabeth Neumeier decided that most employees would have to work until age 65 to earn a full pension, saving the MBTA at least $12 million annually.

But the Carmen’s Union sued to invalidate that portion of the decision, and the parties returned to the bargaining table. The new pension agreement they hammered out doesn’t include the historic retirement age victory; T management negotiated it away.

….

As of Dec. 31, 2022, 5,555 active employees paid into the fund, but 6,783 retirees collected from it. The biggest reason for the mismatch is the age at which T employees retire. Those hired before December 2012 can retire with a full pension after 23 years of service, regardless of age. Those hired after December 2012 can retire with a full pension at age 55 after 25 years.

The arbitrator finally gave the MBTA the win it so desperately needed, and T management promptly gave it back. Many MBTA managers have long opposed changing the age at which employees can earn a full pension, fearing the reaction of T unions.

….

Hard as it may be to believe, the T retirement fund’s financial outlook is even worse than it appears. Financial projections assume the fund’s assets will earn 7.25 percent annually. Over time, actual returns have been more like 4 percent to 7 percent.

These misleading projections are based on other faulty assumptions. In her 2022 decision, Neumeier refused the MBTA’s request to use newer actuarial tables, ruling that changing would be costly and that there was no compelling reason to update the tables. The ones in place are from 1989 — so old that they assume all T employees are men. Since women tend to live longer, the tables materially understate the retirement fund liability.

Author(s): Mark T. Williams, Charles Chieppo 

Publication Date: 19 Jun 2023

Publication Site: Boston Globe

Opinion  How much did Congress lose by defunding the IRS? Way more than we thought.

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/interactive/2023/irs-enforcement-costs-congress-funding/

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Excerpt:

The White House and Congress recently agreed to claw back more than $20 billion earmarked for the Internal Revenue Service. This deal was, ostensibly, part of a grand bargain to reduce budget deficits.

Unfortunately, it’s likely tohave the opposite effect. Every dollar available for auditing taxpayers generates many times that amount for government coffers — and the rate of return is especially astonishing for audits of the wealthiest Americans, according to new research shared exclusively with The Post.

A team of researchers at Harvard University, the University of Sydney and the Treasury Department examined internal IRS data for approximately 710,000 in-person audits from 2010 to 2014. Here’s what they found:

Wealthy people generally have more complex tax returns, so auditing them costs more. Internal government records show that the IRS employees auditing the rich earn higher wages and spend much more time per audit; overhead costs add up, too.

Now here’s the revenue collected per audit, from additional taxes, penalties and interest. The differential for low- vs. high-income taxpayers is even bigger.

This means that while the upfront costs of auditing the wealthy are usually higher — perhaps suggesting these taxpayers aren’t worth going after — the average return on investment is much better.

Author(s):

Opinion by Catherine Rampell and graphics by
Youyou Zhou

Publication Date: 14 Jun 2023

Publication Site: Washington Post

Small Town and Rural Hospitals Are at Risk of Closing due to Funding

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://angrybearblog.com/2023/06/107367

pdf report: https://chqpr.org/downloads/Rural_Hospitals_at_Risk_of_Closing.pdf

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Excerpt:

Things are changing more rapidly. Smaller hospitals are under an attack of high costs and less revenue. As a result, many are closing leaving the small town and rural residents without medical care or having to drive long distances in emergencies. As reported by Healthcare Quality and Payment Reform:

Many people across the country could not receive hospital care in their community when the pandemic began. Over 150 rural hospitals closed between 2005 and 2019. An additional 19 rural hospitals closed in 2020, more than any year in the previous decade. The closures are not resulting from the pandemic, but by financial losses in previous years. Ten more rural hospitals closed in 2021 and 2022. The closures decreased in 2019 due to the special financial assistance hospitals received during the pandemic. The pandemic aid has ended and closures are likely to increase.

Hundreds of Hospitals are at Risk of Closing

Six hundred rural hospitals or ~ 30% of all rural hospitals in the country are at risk of closing. At risk because of the serious financial problems, they are experiencing:

Author(s): Center for Healthcare Quality and Payment Reform

Publication Date: 7 Jun 2023 on blog, accessed 14 Jun 2023

Publication Site: Angry Bear Blog

Biden Admin Implores States to Slow Medicaid Cuts After More Than 1M Enrollees Dropped

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://kffhealthnews.org/news/article/biden-administration-states-medicaid-cuts-million-dropped/

Excerpt:

Too many Americans are losing Medicaid coverage because of red tape, and states should do more to make sure eligible people keep their health insurance, the Biden administration said Monday.

More than a million Americans have lost coverage through the program for low-income and disabled Americans in the past several weeks, following the end of pandemic protections on April 1, according to the latest Medicaid renewal data from more than 20 states.

After a three-year pause, most states have now resumed checking which Medicaid recipients remain eligible and dropping those who no longer qualify or don’t complete required paperwork. About 4 in 5 people dropped so far either never returned the paperwork or omitted required documents, federal and state data show.

….

The Biden administration outlined several optional steps states can take to ensure everyone who still qualifies for the safety-net health insurance program stays covered. For instance, states can pause the cancellations to allow more time to reach people who haven’t responded. Health insurance companies that manage Medicaid plans can help their enrollees fill out the paperwork.

Author(s): Hannah Recht

Publication Date: 13 Jun 2023

Publication Site: Kaiser Health News