COVID-19 Vaccination and Non–COVID-19 Mortality Risk — Seven Integrated Health Care Organizations, United States, December 14, 2020–July 31, 2021

Link:https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7043e2.htm?s_cid=mm7043e2_w

Excerpt:

What is already known about this topic?

Although deaths after COVID-19 vaccination have been reported to the Vaccine Adverse Events Reporting System, few studies have been conducted to evaluate mortality not associated with COVID-19 among vaccinated and unvaccinated groups.

What is added by this report?

During December 2020–July 2021, COVID-19 vaccine recipients had lower rates of non–COVID-19 mortality than did unvaccinated persons after adjusting for age, sex, race and ethnicity, and study site.

What are the implications for public health practice?

There is no increased risk for mortality among COVID-19 vaccine recipients. This finding reinforces the safety profile of currently approved COVID-19 vaccines in the United States. All persons aged ≥12 years should receive a COVID-19 vaccine.

Author(s): Stanley Xu, PhD1; Runxin Huang, MS1; Lina S. Sy, MPH1; Sungching C. Glenn, MS1; Denison S. Ryan, MPH1; Kerresa Morrissette, MPH1; David K. Shay, MD2; Gabriela Vazquez-Benitez, PhD3; Jason M. Glanz, PhD4; Nicola P. Klein, MD, PhD5; David McClure, PhD6; Elizabeth G. Liles, MD7; Eric S. Weintraub, MPH8; Hung-Fu Tseng, MPH, PhD1; Lei Qian, PhD1

Publication Date: 29 October 2021

Publication Site: MMWR at CDC

Covid Mortality Update for November 2021: Before the Omicron Variant

Link:https://marypatcampbell.substack.com/p/covid-mortality-update-for-november

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Excerpt:

As noted earlier, the Hispanic excess mortality was about a level as the other non-White groups, but then spiked with Wave 2 and stayed very high.

The Asian group saw its excess mortality peak with Wave 3 — remember, that’s the large wave with the most COVID deaths. But they have been at about 30 – 35% excess mortality for the other waves.

The Black group looks like it’s slightly rising in excess mortality, but staying within a fairly narrow range of about 33% to 37% excess mortality.

The White group is definitely showing an increasing trend of excess mortality. Interesting.

Due to the White group’s increasing excess mortality, the overall population is showing an increasing trend — look, Whites have been the majority of deaths for a long time, as they’re the majority of old folks. That’s how that works.

Author(s): Mary Pat Campbell

Publication Date: 28 Nov 2021

Publication Site: STUMP at substack

Predictable country-level bias in the reporting of COVID-19 deaths

Link:https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2667319321000124

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Abstract:

We examine whether a country’s management of the COVID-19 pandemic relate to the downward biasing of the number of reported deaths from COVID-19. Using deviations from historical averages of the total number of monthly deaths within a country, we find that the probability of underreporting of COVID-related deaths for countries with the most stringent policies was 58.6%, compared to a 28.2% for countries with the least stringent policies. Countries with the lowest ex ante healthcare capacity in terms of number of available beds underreport deaths by 52.5% on average, compared to 23.1% for countries with the greatest capacity.

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jge.2021.100012

Author(s): Botir Kobilov, Ethan Rouen, George Serafeim

Publication Date: Summer 2021

Publication Site: Journal of Government and Economics

Why COVID-19 Probably Killed More People Than We Realize

Link:https://hbswk.hbs.edu/item/why-covid-19-probably-killed-more-people-than-we-realize

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Excerpt:

As the number of casualties from COVID-19 ballooned at an alarming rate last year, some feared that government officials were failing to report several coronavirus-related losses and the actual death toll was much higher worldwide.

While the official count shows more than 5 million people have died of the disease, a new study of underreported casualties in several countries indicates that COVID has actually killed hundreds of thousands more people than government records document.

….

The HBS researchers gathered the reported monthly numbers of deaths during the pandemic in each of the 51 countries from a variety of sources, including reports in the New York Times and the European Commission’s database, Eurostat. They compared that data to figures from the same months for the past three to five years to calculate excess deaths. Subtracting the number of official COVID deaths for each country helped them gauge potential underreporting.

…..

In fact, countries with more stringent policies in place did, on average, have 59 percent higher unexplained excess deaths—that is, 159 deaths for every 100 reported for COVID.

Author(s): Ethan Rouen, George Serafeim

Publication Date: 2 Nov 2021

Publication Site: Working Knowledge at Harvard Business School

Wave of COVID-19 Deaths Hit RGA Hard

Link: https://www.thinkadvisor.com/2021/11/08/wave-of-covid-19-deaths-hit-rga-hard/

Excerpt:

After the second quarter, RGA executives told analysts they were optimistic about the effects of COVID-19 vaccination programs on mortality.

Instead, “the third quarter saw increases in both COVID-19 and non-COVID-19 general population mortality,” Porter said.

In the United States and India, the typical age of people dying of COVID-19 is falling, Porter added.

That hurts life insurers because people under 65 are more likely than older people to have life insurance.

Author(s): Allison Bell

Publication Date: 8 Nov 2021

Publication Site: Think Advisor

On Covid, Excess Mortality by Race/Ethnicity, and Geographic Patterns

Link:https://marypatcampbell.substack.com/p/on-covid-excess-mortality-by-raceethnicity

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Video:

Excerpt:

And now you can see it — the blue curve for Hispanics has a summer 2020 peak much higher than that for whites, Blacks, and Asians.

I want to note the high peak for Asian deaths in winter 2020-2021.

See that there is a high spike for Asian, Hispanic, and Black in that first NYC-centered wave that we’ve known so well… but a little blip for White. And I want you to think about that a little. Because that really explains a lot of the disproportionate effects on minorities in the U.S. and it goes back to Charles Blow’s question at the top of this post.

The answer to all of this being geographic distribution.

Author(s): Mary Pat Campbell

Publication Date: 6 Nov 2021

Publication Site: STUMP at substack

Vital Statistics Rapid Release — Quarterly Provisional Estimates, Mortality Dashboard

Link:https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/mortality-dashboard.htm#

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Excerpt:

Quarterly Rates

The crude death rate for all causes in All States for the 3-month period ending with 2021 Q1 was 1118.3, which was greater than the crude death rate of 944.9 in 2020 Q1.

12-Month Ending Rates

The crude death rate for all causes in All States for the 12-month period ending with 2021 Q1 was 1069.9, which was greater than the crude death rate of 878.2 in 2020 Q1.

Publication Date: accessed 25 Oct 2021

Publication Site: CDC

5 States Where Young-Adult Deaths Are Spiking

Link:https://www.thinkadvisor.com/2021/10/15/50-states-of-mortality-spike-data-for-the-25-44-age-group/

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Excerpt:

In the first two weeks ending in September, the number of deaths of U.S. residents in the 25-44 age group spiked to 8,604.

The number of deaths of people in that age group was 22% higher than it was during the comparable period, and 57% higher than it was during the comparable period in 2019 — before the COVID-19 pandemic began.

In the first half of 2021, which included the January spike, the number of deaths of people in the 25-44 age group was 38% higher than in the first half of 2019.

There are about 87.4 million people in the 25-44 age group in the United States, according to the Census Bureau.

Author(s):Allison Bell

Publication Date: 15 Oct 2021

Publication Site: Think Advisor

California Extreme heat deaths show climate change risks

Link:https://www.latimes.com/projects/california-extreme-heat-deaths-show-climate-change-risks/

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Excerpt:

Between 2010 and 2019, the hottest decade on record, California’s official data from death certificates attributed 599 deaths to heat exposure.

But a Times analysis found that the true toll is probably six times higher. An examination of mortality data from this period shows that thousands more people died on extremely hot days than would have been typical during milder weather. All told, the analysis estimates that extreme heat caused about 3,900 deaths.

….

California’s undercount is one of the ways it overlooks the threat posed by heat waves, even as climate change delivers them more frequently, more intensely and with deadlier consequences. Other states are moving with greater urgency to confront this public health challenge that disproportionately imperils the elderly and vulnerable.

Extreme heat did not suddenly become a threat to Californians’ lives. The Times found that state leaders have ignored years of warnings from within their own agencies that heat was becoming more dangerous. Data reviewed by The Times show heat-related hospital visits increasing in some parts of California, including Los Angeles County, for at least the last 15 years.

Github: https://github.com/datadesk/extreme-heat-excess-deaths-analysis

Author(s): Anna M. Phillips, Tony Barboza, Ruben Vives, Sean Greene

Publication Date: 7 Oct 2021

Publication Site: LA Times

America’s pandemic is now an outlier in the rich world

Link:https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2021/09/27/americas-pandemic-is-now-an-outlier-in-the-rich-world

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Excerpt:

America is recording nearly 2,000 covid-19 deaths a day, according to a seven-day average compiled by Johns Hopkins University. That is only 40% below the country’s January peak. But the true death toll is even worse. The Economist’s excess-deaths model, which estimates the difference between the actual and the expected number of deaths recorded in a given period, suggests that America is suffering 2,800 pandemic deaths per day, with a plausible range of 900 to 3,300, compared with 1,000 (150 to 3,000) in all other high-income countries, as defined by the World Bank. Adjusting for population, the death rate is now about eight times higher in America than in the rest of the rich world.

Publication Date: 27 Sept 2021

Publication Site: The Economist

Thousands more people than usual are dying … but it’s not from Covid

Link:https://www.yahoo.com/news/analysis-thousands-more-usual-dying-170117640.html

:

Excerpt:

While focus remains firmly fixed on Covid-19, a second health crisis is quietly emerging in Britain. Since the beginning of July, there have been thousands of excess deaths that were not caused by coronavirus.

According to health experts, this is highly unusual for the summer. Although excess deaths are expected during the winter months, when cold weather and seasonal infections combine to place pressure on the NHS, summer generally sees a lull.

….

Data from Public Health England (PHE) shows that during that period there were 2,103 extra death registrations with ischemic heart disease, 1,552 with heart failure, as well as an extra 760 deaths with cerebrovascular diseases such as stroke and aneurysm and 3,915 with other circulatory diseases.

Acute and chronic respiratory infections were also up with 3,416 more mentions on death certificates than expected since the start of July, while there have been 1,234 extra urinary system disease deaths, 324 with cirrhosis and liver disease and 1,905 with diabetes.

Alarmingly, many of these conditions saw the biggest drops in diagnosis in 2020, as the NHS struggled to cope with the pandemic.

Author(s): Sarah Knapton

Publication Date: 24 Sept 2021

Publication Site: Yahoo News

Mortality with Meep – Excess Deaths through September 2021 – Winter is Coming

Video description:

A look at the pattern of weekly deaths, all causes, for the entire United States through the beginning of September 2021, as well as: California Texas New York (minus NYC) New York City Pennsylvania Illinois CDC excess mortality dashboard: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/co…

Publication Date: 17 Sept 2021

Author: Mary Pat Campbell

Publication Site: Meep’s Math Matters at Youtube