Pandemic Spending Slowdown Eased Financial Stress: Survey

Link:https://www.thinkadvisor.com/2022/01/11/pandemic-spending-slowdown-eased-financial-stress-survey/

Excerpt:

Despite a two-year pandemic, workers overall are more confident in their financial situation than they’ve been since 2014, according to findings in the eighth annual Stress, Finances, and Well-Being report released today by John Hancock Retirement. That said, overall stress still affects 72% of retirement plan participants surveyed, especially women (79%) and those 36 to 50 years old (77%).

Further, 71% responded said they had experienced stress, depression or loneliness during the past year.

Author(s): Ginger Szala

Publication Date: 11 Jan 2022

Publication Site: Think Advisor

Americans Moved to Low-Tax States in 2021

Link: https://taxfoundation.org/state-population-change-2021/

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Nationally, the U.S. population only grew by 0.1 percent between July 2020 and July 2021, the lowest rate since the nation’s founding. Pandemic-induced excess deaths, virtually nonexistent international in-migration, and an already-declining birth rate yielded an almost flat population trend nationwide. This, however, belies state-level and regional differences. Whereas the District of Columbia’s population shrunk by 2.8 percent between April 2020 (roughly the start of the pandemic) to July 2021, New York lost 1.8 percent of its population, and Illinois, Hawaii, and California rounded out the top five jurisdictions for population loss, Idaho was gaining 3.4 percent, while Utah, Montana, Arizona, South Carolina, Delaware, Texas, Nevada, Florida, and North Carolina all saw population gains of 1 percent or more.

The picture painted by this population shift is a clear one of people leaving high-tax, high-cost states for lower-tax, lower-cost alternatives. The individual income tax is only one component of overall tax burdens, but it is often highly salient, and is illustrative here. If we include the District of Columbia, then in the top one-third of states for population growth since the start of the pandemic (April 2020 to July 2021 data), the average combined top marginal state and local income tax rate is 3.5 percent, while in the bottom third of states, it is about 7.3 percent.

Author(s): Jared Walczak

Publication Date: 4 Jan 2022

Publication Site: Tax Foundation

Animated Chart: China’s Aging Population (1950-2100)

Link: https://www.visualcapitalist.com/cp/chinas-aging-population-problem-1950-2100/

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The one-child policy defined China’s demographic transition for over three decades.

But to combat an aging population and declining birthrates, the government scrapped the policy for a new two-child policy in 2016. Despite this massive change, China still faces a growing demographic crisis.

The above animated population pyramid from James Eagle looks at the distribution of China’s population by age group since 1950, with projections up to the year 2100.

Author(s): James Eagle

Publication Date: 27 Dec 2021

Publication Site: Visual Capitalist

Vietnam adds private pension as silver tide rises

Link:https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/Vietnam-adds-private-pension-as-silver-tide-rises

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When communist Vietnam recently introduced private retirement funds, it was taking a step not only closer to capitalism, but also toward changing a young pension system that some worry may buckle if citizens get old before getting rich.

Last year marked the first time workers could put part of their paychecks into private retirement accounts, on top of the share contributed to the state pension. But analysts say bigger, systemic change is needed to enable retirement for all, even as the International Labor Organization says the state fund is robust. 

….

Retirees would seem to be the envy of the neighborhood, receiving payouts worth 75% of their prior wages — the fifth-highest among 70 countries in the Allianz Global Pension Report 2020.

But Vietnam’s system covers just 40% of the elderly, which explains why women keep working longer there than in all but five other countries, the report shows.

Author(s): LIEN HOANG

Publication Date: 17 Jan 2022

Publication Site: Nikkei Asia

Top Causes of Death by Age Group, 2020: Raw Numbers

Link: https://marypatcampbell.substack.com/p/top-causes-of-death-by-age-group

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The numbers below each cause are the total number of finalized deaths in CDC Wonder as of 11 January 2022 for the completed calendar year 2020.

COVID deaths for under age 15 weren’t in the top 10 causes for those age groups, which is why they aren’t seen in the table. But you may be interested in those numbers:
at #12 for ages 5-14, with 49 deaths
at #12 for ages 1-4, with 19 deaths
at #13 for infant mortality (<1 year), at 35 deaths

In general, other than the new cause of COVID, most of the causes of death were in the same rank order as in 2019, with a few switches for causes that tend to be close in numbers.

Author(s): Mary Pat Campbell

Publication Date: 12 Jan 2022

Publication Site: STUMP at substack

In the Next 10 Years, Nearly All the Population Increase Will Be Age Group 65+

Link: https://mishtalk.com/economics/in-the-next-10-years-nearly-all-the-population-increase-will-be-age-group-65

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The above stats from Census Bureau Projects U.S. and World Populations on New Year’s Day.

Looking ahead to the next decade the percentage of those 60 and over will rise from 23.29% to 25.93%. 

Meanwhile, the prime working age population age 20-59 declines from 52.06% to 50.75%.

And this is happening with public union pension plans severely stressed despite huge stock market gains. 

Author(s): Mike Shedlock

Publication Date: 3 Jan 2022

Publication Site: Mish Talk

New Census Data Shows Population Increased at Lowest Rate in US History

Link:https://mishtalk.com/economics/new-census-data-shows-population-increased-at-lowest-rate-in-us-history

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The population of the United States grew in the past year by 392,665, or 0.1%, the lowest rate since the nation’s founding. 

The slow rate of growth can be attributed to decreased net international migration, decreased fertility, and increased mortality due in part to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Between July 1, 2020, and July 1, 2021, the nation’s growth was due to natural increase (148,043), which is the number of excess births over deaths, and net international migration (244,622). 

This is the first time that net international migration (the difference between the number of people moving into the country and out of the country) has exceeded natural increase for a given year.

The voting-age resident population, adults age 18 and over, grew to 258.3 million, comprising 77.8% of the population in 2021.

Author(s): Mike Shedlock

Publication Date: 21 Dec 2021

Publication Site: Mish Talk

Covid Spurs Biggest Rise in Life-Insurance Payouts in a Century

Link:https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-spurs-biggest-rise-in-life-insurance-payouts-in-a-century-11639045802

Excerpt:

The Covid-19 pandemic last year drove the biggest increase in death benefits paid by U.S. life insurers since the 1918 influenza epidemic, an industry trade group said.

Death-benefit payments rose 15.4% in 2020 to $90.43 billion, mostly due to the pandemic, according to the American Council of Life Insurers. In 1918, payments surged 41%.

The hit to the insurance industry was less than expected early in the pandemic because many of the victims were older people who typically have smaller policies. The industry paid out $78.36 billion in 2019, and payouts have typically increased modestly each year.

….

In the 1918 flu pandemic, the number of U.S. deaths reached about 675,000, with mortality high in people younger than 5 years old, 20 to 40 years old, and 65 years and older, according to the CDC’s website.

The ACLI’s data show two other years, both in the 1920s, when year-over-year increases topped 15%, when there also were influenza epidemics, said Andrew Melnyk, the ACLI’s vice president of research and chief economist.

Author(s): Leslie Scism

Publication Date: 9 Dec 2021

Publication Site: Wall Street Journal

How Many People in NYC Are At Risk of Losing Their Job Over the Mayor’s Vaccine Mandate?

Link:https://mishtalk.com/economics/how-many-people-in-nyc-are-at-risk-of-losing-their-job-over-the-mayors-vaccine-mandate

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NYC Vaccination Data shows that at most, 18.3% of New Yorker residents are theoretically impacted, but not all of them work.

….

That is less than half of the population of the city. Factoring in the vaccination rate, about 9% of the entire city is at risk of losing their jobs.

Thus Borelli is wildly off on his percentages.

I am not at all defending mayor de Blasio. Indeed, I heavily blasted him in New York City Mandates Vaccinations, Please Be Ready With Your Vaccine Card.

I am just in search of more accurate numbers.

Author(s): Mike Shedlock

Publication Date: 8 Dec 2021

Publication Site: MishTalk

Visualizing the 700-Year Fall of Interest Rates

Link:https://www.visualcapitalist.com/700-year-decline-of-interest-rates/

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Today’s graphic from Paul Schmelzing, visiting scholar at the Bank of England (BOE), shows how global real interest rates have experienced an average annual decline of -0.0196% (-1.96 basis points) throughout the past eight centuries.

….

Starting in 1311, data from the report shows how average real rates moved from 5.1% in the 1300s down to an average of 2% in the 1900s.

The average real rate between 2000-2018 stands at 1.3%.

….

Demographics impact interest rates on a number of levels. The aging population—paired with declining fertility levels—result in higher savings rates, longer life expectancies, and lower labor force participation rates.

In the U.S., baby boomers are retiring at a pace of 10,000 people per day, and other advanced economies are also seeing comparable growth in retirees. Theory suggests that this creates downward pressure on real interest rates, as the number of people in the workforce declines.

Author(s): Dorothy Neufeld

Publication Date: 4 Feb 2020

Publication Site: Visual Capitalist

Who’s Quitting Their Jobs? New Data Show Some Workers Are More Likely Than Others

Link:https://www.wsj.com/articles/as-american-workers-leave-jobs-in-record-numbers-a-closer-look-at-who-is-quitting-11636894801

Excerpt:

Workers resigned from a record 4.4 million jobs in September, according to Labor Department data, and new surveys show that low-wage workers, employees of color and women outside the management ranks are those most likely to change roles. The findings signal that turnover isn’t evenly spread across the U.S. workforce even as employers across industries struggle to fill a variety of roles.

The overall percentage of people considering leaving their jobs — about three in 10, according to research by consulting firm Mercer LLC — is fairly consistent with historical trends. But sentiment varies across demographics and occupations. While front-line and low-wage positions typically see high rates of turnover, for example, employees in those roles are especially likely to leave now, Mercer found in a survey of 2,000 U.S. workers conducted in August.

….

Nearly half of low-wage and front-line workers surveyed said their pay and benefits were insufficient while 41% said they felt burned out from demanding workloads. Some 35% of Black employees and 40% of Asian employees said they were considering leaving, compared with 26% of white employees.

Author(s): Kathryn Dill

Publication Date: 14 Nov 2021

Publication Site: WSJ

On Covid, Excess Mortality by Race/Ethnicity, and Geographic Patterns

Link:https://marypatcampbell.substack.com/p/on-covid-excess-mortality-by-raceethnicity

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And now you can see it — the blue curve for Hispanics has a summer 2020 peak much higher than that for whites, Blacks, and Asians.

I want to note the high peak for Asian deaths in winter 2020-2021.

See that there is a high spike for Asian, Hispanic, and Black in that first NYC-centered wave that we’ve known so well… but a little blip for White. And I want you to think about that a little. Because that really explains a lot of the disproportionate effects on minorities in the U.S. and it goes back to Charles Blow’s question at the top of this post.

The answer to all of this being geographic distribution.

Author(s): Mary Pat Campbell

Publication Date: 6 Nov 2021

Publication Site: STUMP at substack