Investigating the Mass Hysteria Over 1 Degree in Climate Change Since 1850

Link: https://mishtalk.com/economics/investigating-the-mass-hysteria-over-1-degree-in-climate-change-since-1850

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Excerpt:

Temperatures have risen a a best estimate of 1.07°C since 1850 due to man-made causes.

The sea rise between 1971 and 2006 was 1.3 mm per year. That’s 0.0511811 inches per year. 

The sea rise between 2006 and 2018 was 3.7 mm per year. That’s 0.145669 inches per year.

Under all emissions scenarios, global warming of 1.5°C and 2°C will be exceeded during the 21st century.

Author(s): Mike Shedlock

Publication Date: 5 September 2021

Publication Site: Mish Talk

Let’s Review 50 Years of Dire Climate Forecasts and What Actually Happened

Link: https://mishtalk.com/economics/lets-review-50-years-of-dire-climate-forecasts-and-what-actually-happened

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1970 Boston Globe: Scientist Predicts New Ice Age by 21st Century said James P. Lodge, a scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research.
1971 Washington Post: Disastrous New Ice Age Coming says S.I. Rasool at NASA.
1972 Brown University Letter to President Nixon: Warning on Global Cooling
1974 The Guardian: Space Satellites Show Ice Age Coming Fast

…..

1989 Salon: New York City’s West Side Highway underwater by 2019 said Jim Hansen the scientist who lectured Congress in 1988 about the greenhouse effect.
2000 The Independent: “Snowfalls are a thing of the past. Our children will not know what snow is,” says senior climate researcher.
2004 The Guardian: The Pentagon Tells Bush Climate Change Will Destroy Us. “Britain will be Siberian in less than 20 years,” the Pentagon told Bush.

…..

2013 The Guardian: US Navy Predicts Ice Free Arctic by 2016. “The US Navy’s department of Oceanography uses complex modeling to makes its forecast more accurate than others.
2014 John Kerry: “We have 500 days to Avoid Climate Chaos” discussed Sec of State John Kerry and French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabious at a joint meeting.

Author(s): Mike Shedlock

Publication Date: 18 February 2021

Publication Site: Mish Talk

Insurance Futures: Global trends and issues reshaping the insurance landscape to 2035

Link: https://www.internationalinsurance.org/sites/default/files/2021-07/Milliman_Insurance_futures_compilation_7.2021_2.pdf

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The long-term security of coastal regions depends not simply on climate, oceans and geography,
but on multiple local factors, from the politics of foreign aid and investor confidence, to the
quality of resilience-oriented designs and ‘managed retreat’.


Take some examples. In 2017, the drought in Cape Town and lack of resilient water infrastructure
led to a downgrade by Moody’s. Wildfires in the Trinity Public Utilities District in California
led to similar downgrades in 2019. Moody’s have developed a ‘heat map’3 that shows the credit
exposure to environmental risk across sectors representing US$74.6 trillion in debt. In the short
term, the unregulated utilities and power companies are exposed to ‘elevated risk’. The risks to
automobile manufacturers, oil and gas independents and transport companies are growing.
Blackrock’s report from April 2019, focused primarily on physical climate risk, showed that
securities backed by commercial real estate mortgages could be confronted with losses of up
to 3.8 per cent due to storm and flood related cash flow shortages.4 Climate change has already
reduced local GDP, with Miami top of the list. The report was amongst the first to link high-level
climate risk to location analysis of assets such as plants, property and equipment.


In other words, adaptation and resilience options are also uniquely local. The outcomes hinge
on mapping long-term interdependencies to predict physical world changes and explore how
core economic and social systems transition to a sustainable world.

Publication Date: July 2021

Publication Site: International Insurance Society

We’re Going The Wrong Way

Link: https://www.dailyposter.com/were-going-the-wrong-way/

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Science has provided America with a decent idea of which areas of our country will be most devastated by climate change, and which areas will be most insulated from the worst effects. Unfortunately, it seems that population flows are going in the wrong direction — today’s new Census data shows a nation moving out of the safer areas and into some of the most dangerous places of all.

…..

Some of the examples are genuinely mind-boggling. For instance, upstate New York is considered one of the country’s most insulated regions in the climate crisis — and yet almost all of upstate New York saw population either nearly flat or declining. At the same time, there were big population increases in and around the Texas gulf coast, which is threatened by extreme heat and coastal flooding.

Similarly, the city of Philadelphia is comparatively well situated in the climate crisis — but it saw only modest population growth of 5 percent. It was surpassed on the list of biggest cities by Phoenix, which saw an 11 percent population growth, despite that city facing some of the worst forms of extreme heat and drought in the entire country.

Author(s): David Sirota, Julia Rock

Publication Date: 12 August 2021

Publication Site: The Daily Poster

Skip the fireworks this record-dry 4th of July, over 150 wildfire scientists urge the US West

Link: https://theconversation.com/skip-the-fireworks-this-record-dry-4th-of-july-over-150-wildfire-scientists-urge-the-us-west-163561

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For decades, one of the most striking and predictable patterns of human behavior in the western U.S. has been people accidentally starting fires on the Fourth of July. From 1992 to 2015, more than 7,000 wildfires started in the U.S. on July 4 – the most wildfires ignited on any day during the year. And most of these are near homes.

Author(s): Philip Higuera, Alexander L. Metcalf, Dave McWethy, Jennifer Balch

Publication Date: 1 July 2021

Publication Site: The Conversation

Projections of temperature-related excess mortality under climate change scenarios

Link: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanplh/article/PIIS2542-5196(17)30156-0/fulltext

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Our dataset comprised 451 locations in 23 countries across nine regions of the world, including 85 879 895 deaths. Results indicate, on average, a net increase in temperature-related excess mortality under high-emission scenarios, although with important geographical differences. In temperate areas such as northern Europe, east Asia, and Australia, the less intense warming and large decrease in cold-related excess would induce a null or marginally negative net effect, with the net change in 2090–99 compared with 2010–19 ranging from −1·2% (empirical 95% CI −3·6 to 1·4) in Australia to −0·1% (−2·1 to 1·6) in east Asia under the highest emission scenario, although the decreasing trends would reverse during the course of the century. Conversely, warmer regions, such as the central and southern parts of America or Europe, and especially southeast Asia, would experience a sharp surge in heat-related impacts and extremely large net increases, with the net change at the end of the century ranging from 3·0% (−3·0 to 9·3) in Central America to 12·7% (−4·7 to 28·1) in southeast Asia under the highest emission scenario. Most of the health effects directly due to temperature increase could be avoided under scenarios involving mitigation strategies to limit emissions and further warming of the planet.

Author(s):

Antonio Gasparrini, PhD
Yuming Guo, PhD
Francesco Sera, MSc
Ana Maria Vicedo-Cabrera, PhD
Veronika Huber, PhD
Prof Shilu Tong, PhD
Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, PhD
Prof Paulo Hilario Nascimento Saldiva, PhD
Eric Lavigne, PhD
Patricia Matus Correa, MSc
Nicolas Valdes Ortega, MSc
Haidong Kan, PhD
Samuel Osorio, MSc
Jan Kyselý, PhD
Aleš Urban, PhD
Prof Jouni J K Jaakkola, PhD
Niilo R I Ryti, PhD
Mathilde Pascal, PhD
Prof Patrick G Goodman, PhD
Ariana Zeka, PhD
Paola Michelozzi, MSc
Matteo Scortichini, MSc
Prof Masahiro Hashizume, PhD
Prof Yasushi Honda, PhD
Prof Magali Hurtado-Diaz, PhD
Julio Cesar Cruz, MSc
Xerxes Seposo, PhD
Prof Ho Kim, PhD
Aurelio Tobias, PhD
Carmen Iñiguez, PhD
Prof Bertil Forsberg, PhD
Daniel Oudin Åström, PhD
Martina S Ragettli, PhD
Prof Yue Leon Guo, PhD
Chang-fu Wu, PhD
Antonella Zanobetti, PhD
Prof Joel Schwartz, PhD
Prof Michelle L Bell, PhD
Tran Ngoc Dang, PhD
Prof Dung Do Van, PhD
Clare Heaviside, PhD
Sotiris Vardoulakis, PhD
Shakoor Hajat, PhD
Prof Andy Haines, FMedSci
Prof Ben Armstrong, PhD

Publication Date: 1 December 2017

Publication Site: The Lancet

The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change

Link: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-021-01058-x

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Abstract:

Climate change affects human health; however, there have been no large-scale, systematic efforts to quantify the heat-related human health impacts that have already occurred due to climate change. Here, we use empirical data from 732 locations in 43 countries to estimate the mortality burdens associated with the additional heat exposure that has resulted from recent human-induced warming, during the period 1991–2018. Across all study countries, we find that 37.0% (range 20.5–76.3%) of warm-season heat-related deaths can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change and that increased mortality is evident on every continent. Burdens varied geographically but were of the order of dozens to hundreds of deaths per year in many locations. Our findings support the urgent need for more ambitious mitigation and adaptation strategies to minimize the public health impacts of climate change.

Vicedo-Cabrera, A.M., Scovronick, N., Sera, F. et al. The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change. Nat. Clim. Chang. 11, 492–500 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01058-x

Author(s): A. M. Vicedo-Cabrera, N. Scovronick, A. Gasparrini

Publication Date: 31 May 2021

Publication Site: nature

Bjorn Lomborg: “Climate Change Coverage Ignores the Heavy Impact of heat on cold deaths”

Excerpt:

Earlier this monthlandmark study in Nature made headlines around the world. Rising temperatures from global warming increase the number of heat deaths, now causing a third of all heat deaths, or about 100,000 deaths per year.

Obviously, this is a powerful narrative to justify urgent climate policies.

But the study left out glaring truths that even its own authors have abundantly documented. Heat deaths are declining in countries with good data, likely because of ever more air conditioning. This is abundantly clear for the US, which has seen increasing hot days since 1960 affecting a much greater population. Yet, the number of heat deaths has halved. So while global warming could result in more heat deaths, technological development in, for instance, the US, is actually resulting in fewer heat deaths.

More importantly, cold deaths vastly outweigh heat deaths worldwide. This is not just true for cold countries like Canada but also warmer countries like the US, Spain and Brazil. Even in India, cold deaths outweigh heat deaths by 7-to-1. Globally, about 1.7 million deaths are caused by cold, more than five times the number of heat deaths

Author(s): Bjorn Lomborg

Publication Date: 26 June 2021

Publication Site: Watts Up With That

Why Engine No. 1’s Victory Is a Wake-up Call for ExxonMobil and Others

Excerpt:

Over the past two weeks, activist hedge fund investor Engine No. 1 scored a victory for the climate change movement by wresting three board seats at ExxonMobil with the support of the “Big Three” institutional investment firms BlackRock, Vanguard, and State Street. But the episode also marks a failure in ExxonMobil’s “corporate diplomacy” because of its inability to convincingly demonstrate that it is committed to mitigating climate risks and protecting its long-term business value, according to Wharton management professor Witold Henisz.

Engine No. 1 has only a 0.02% stake in ExxonMobil, but the climate risk issues it pushed for were sufficient to get the three big investment firms on its side. In explaining its stance, BlackRock stated that the energy major needs “to further assess the company’s strategy and board expertise against the possibility that demand for fossil fuels may decline rapidly in the coming decades.” BlackRock CEO Larry Fink had reiterated his company’s commitment to combating climate change in his 2021 annual letter to CEOs; in his 2020 letter to CEOs, he had said that “climate risk is investment risk.”

Author(s): Witold Henisz

Publication Date: 15 June 2021

Publication Site: Knowledge @ Whatron

Illinois targets coal plant closures before all bonds retire

Link: https://fixedincome.fidelity.com/ftgw/fi/FINewsArticle?id=202106071513SM______BNDBUYER_00000179-e7af-dd1a-ab7d-efefe4190001_110.1

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A proposed mandate to shutter the $5 billion Prairie State coal energy campus and a Springfield, Illinois? plant by 2035 would hit local ratepayers with the double burden of funding new energy sources while still paying down project bonds, a bipartisan group of state lawmakers warn.

Gov. J.B. Pritzker backs a state mandate to end coal generation by 2035 to meet de-carbonation targets included in pending energy legislation. The package stalled during the General Assembly?s spring session that ended last week, but Pritzker said he expects lawmakers will return in the coming weeks for a vote.

…..

Retiring Prairie State early would mark the latest headache for some of the nine public utilities in Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Missouri, and Ohio that issued $4.5 billion of debt, some it under the federal Build America Bond program, to finance their ownership in project.

Peabody Energy Inc. initially sponsored the project in Washington County promoting it as an affordable source of energy with an adjacent mine and a cleaner one given its state-of-the-art technology at the time. Bechtel Power Corp. built it. It initially carried a $2 billion price tag that rose to a $4 billion fixed cost under the 2010 contract with utilities but cost overruns drove the price tag up to $5 billion.

Author(s): Yvette Shields

Publication Date: 7 June 2021

Publication Site: Fidelity Fixed Income

Activist Likely to Gain Third Seat on Exxon Board

Link: https://www.wsj.com/articles/activist-likely-to-gain-third-seat-on-exxon-board-11622664757

Excerpt:

An activist investor is likely to pick up a third seat on the board of Exxon Mobil Corp., giving it additional leverage to press the oil giant to address investor discontent about diminished profits and its fossil-fuel focused strategy amid concerns about climate change.

Exxon said Wednesday that an updated vote count showed shareholders backed a third nominee of Engine No. 1, an upstart hedge fund that had already won two board seats at Exxon’s annual shareholder meeting last week. The final vote hasn’t been certified, Exxon said, and could take days or weeks to be finalized, according to people familiar with the matter.

Engine No. 1, which owns a tiny fraction of Exxon’s stock, had sought four seats on the board and argued the Texas oil giant should commit to carbon neutrality, effectively bringing its emissions to zero—both from the company and its products—by 2050, as some peers have. If the preliminary voting results hold, it will control a quarter of Exxon’s 12-person board.

…..

Shareholders representing nearly 56% of shares that were eligible to vote supported a proposal calling for Exxon to disclose more about direct and indirect lobbying spending and policies, while about 64% voted for Exxon to release a report on how its lobbying aligns with Paris climate accords.

Author(s): Christopher M. Matthews

Publication Date: 2 June 2021

Publication Site: WSJ

DiNapoli Moves State Pension Fund Toward Net Zero Target, Restricts Investments in Oil Sands Companies

Link: https://www.osc.state.ny.us/press/releases/2021/04/dinapoli-moves-state-pension-fund-toward-net-zero-target-restricts-investments-oil-sands-companies

Excerpt:

The New York State Common Retirement Fund (Fund) will restrict investments in oil sands companies that have not demonstrated that they are prepared for the transition to a low-carbon economy, New York State Comptroller Thomas P. DiNapoli, trustee of the third largest public pension plan in the country, announced today.

This action is tied to DiNapoli’s comprehensive Climate Action Plan to lower investment risks from climate change and transition the Fund’s investment portfolio to net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2040.

“As nations around the world become increasingly serious about addressing the threat of climate change and as market forces drive a low-carbon economic transition, we need to make sure our investments line up with this reality,” said DiNapoli. “We have carefully reviewed companies in the oil sands industry and are restricting investments in those that do not have viable plans to adapt to the low-carbon future. Companies responsible for large greenhouse gas emissions like those in this industry, pose significant risks for investors.”

Publication Date: 12 April 2021

Publication Site: Office of the NY State Comptroller