2022 Predictions

Link: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/2022-predictions-max-rudolph/

Graphic:

Excerpt:

Regional conflicts are heating up around the world. Resource needs will accelerate the trend. Fresh water in the Himalayas provide multiple countries who have nuclear arsenals. Oil and rare earth metals could also trigger a war. Climatic events are happening more often, so the cost takes money away from solutions while making the goals seem more obvious.

….

Resource depletion has no recommended debit treatment from accountants, but attribution analysis is going to do the work after the fact and charge companies for their past practices through the court system. I assume this is how the asbestos risk played out but I will need to learn more about similar historical events as these events play out. How should this enter your thought process as an investor? In 2021 I wrote 4 papers about climate; Climate System, Integrated Assessment Models, Impact of Climate Change on Investors and Municipalities and Climate Change. They are part of the SOA’s Environmental Risk Series. The impact of climate on investors will continue to evolve for many years. One topic of interest to me is how TCFD (disclosures) will play out – we could see “bad” investments like oil companies, gun makers and cigarette companies become privately owned. This would make it harder to apply peer pressure so is an important reminder to be careful what you wish for!

Author(s): Max Rudolph

Publication Date: 16 Jan 2022

Publication Site: LinkedIn

Jerry Theodorou on Natural Disasters and Insurance

Link:https://www.c-span.org/video/?514314-3/washington-journal-jerry-theodorou-discusses-natural-disasters-insurance

Excerpt: [transcript from closed captioning]

Jerry Theodorou
IT IS HARD TO CALCULATE. THE INSURANCE INDUSTRY WAS FACED WITH MASSIVE FLOOD LOSSES BUT FOUND THAT IT DID NOT HAVE THE DATA TO PRICE IT ACCURATELY. IT STARTED REDUCING AND EXCLUDING FLOOD FROM STANDARD INSURANCE POLICIES AND THE GOVERNMENT STEPPED IN TO CREATE THE PROGRAM. TO PROVIDE SOME LEVEL OF FLOOD INSURANCE. THERE IS AN INHERENT TENSION IN THE PROGRAM BECAUSE IT HAS TWO GOALS IN CONTENTION WITH EACH OTHER. THE GOAL TO PROVIDE AFFORDABLE FLOOD INSURANCE AND SOME DEGREE OF FISCAL SOUNDNESS. THEY ARE PAYING ABOUT $400 BILLION IN INTEREST, WHICH IS A BURDEN, SO IF WE FOCUS STRICTLY ON AFFORDABILITY, YOU WILL HAVE UNDERPRICED INSURANCE, NOT PRICED ACCORDING TO THE ACTUAL VOLUME. THIS IS WHAT IS HAPPENING NOW WITH LARGELY IMPACT — OVERPRICED INSURANCE. FOCUSING ON FISCAL SOUNDNESS, YOU WILL HAVE THOSE EXPOSED. IT IS A LITTLE BIT OF A BALANCE. DO YOU WANT FISCAL SOUNDNESS? PROBABLY A LITTLE BIT OF BOTH, WHICH IS MY NEXT MONTH, OCTOBER 1, THE NEW BEATING WILL BE INTRODUCED TO MAKE IT MAKE THE PRICING AND THE COST OF FLOOD INSURANCE MORE APPROPRIATE FOR THE LEVEL OF RISK. IT IS EITHER OR. IF YOU LIVE IN A FLOOD ZONE, YOU PAY HIGHER PREMIUMS. IT IS NOT BLACK-AND-WHITE BECAUSE THERE IS A SPECTRUM FOR THE DEGREE OF RISK. IT WILL INTRODUCE MORE VARIABLES SO THAT IT IS MORE APPROPRIATELY CORRELATED WITH THE LEVEL OF RISK.

Author(s): Jerry Theodorou, John McArdle

Publication Date: 5 Sept 2021

Publication Site: C-SPAN, Washington Journal

Skip the fireworks this record-dry 4th of July, over 150 wildfire scientists urge the US West

Link: https://theconversation.com/skip-the-fireworks-this-record-dry-4th-of-july-over-150-wildfire-scientists-urge-the-us-west-163561

Graphic:

Excerpt:

For decades, one of the most striking and predictable patterns of human behavior in the western U.S. has been people accidentally starting fires on the Fourth of July. From 1992 to 2015, more than 7,000 wildfires started in the U.S. on July 4 – the most wildfires ignited on any day during the year. And most of these are near homes.

Author(s): Philip Higuera, Alexander L. Metcalf, Dave McWethy, Jennifer Balch

Publication Date: 1 July 2021

Publication Site: The Conversation

St. Francis Dam Disaster – Frank Black and the Catholics

Description:

It’s not just a song, it’s a history lesson!

St. Francis Dam Disaster by Frank Black and the Catholics off of the album Dog in the Sand (2001 Cooking Vinyl)

Many of the pictures were culled from https://scvhistory.com/scvhistory/stfrancis.htm

They have a lot of info on the St. Francis Dam disaster and it’s worth checking out if you want to see more.

Image:

Author(s): Skippy .Bob

Publication Date: 1 December 2013

Publication Site: YouTube