Tag: life expectancy

Unhealthy Longevity in the United States

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.soa.org/resources/research-reports/2023/unhealthy-longevity-us/

PDF: https://www.soa.org/4a525c/globalassets/assets/files/resources/research-report/2023/unhealthy-longevity-us.pdf

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Excerpt:

The SOA Research Institute’s Mortality and Longevity Strategic Research Program is pleased to make available a research report that quantifies differences in mortality and disease prevalence by health status. Additionally, period life tables by health status, sex, and age are available in Appendix D.

Author(s):

Natalia S. Gavrilova, Ph.D.
Leonid A. Gavrilov, Ph.D.

NORC at the University of Chicago

Publication Date: August 2023

Publication Site: Society of Actuaries

Japan’s average life expectancy continued to fall in 2022

Mary Pat Campbell

Link:https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2023/07/28/japan/science-health/japans-average-life-expectancy-continued-to-fall-in-2022/?utm_source=pianoDNU&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=72&tpcc=dnu&pnespid=.OSLjdNc5ajLp.m_r0X2sv8P_x4boCkkhVA4AlsotBCV3z1GVBtRNwqnyK4YG0tktTnV

Excerpt:

The average life expectancy fell for both Japanese men and women for the second consecutive year in 2022, a health ministry survey showed Friday.

The average life expectancy last declined for both sexes two years in a row in 2010 and 2011.

In 2022, the average life expectancy for men fell 0.42 years from 2021 to 81.05 years, and that for women dropped 0.49 years to 87.09 years. The drops were “largely due to the COVID-19 pandemic,” a ministry official said.

According to the ministry, the reported number of people who died after getting infected with the coronavirus rose to 47,635 in 2022 from 16,766 in 2021.

The pandemic is seen to have shortened the average life expectancy in 2022 by 0.12 years for men and 0.13 years for women, larger than 0.10 years and 0.07 years, respectively, in 2021.

….

In 2022, Japanese women had the highest average life expectancy in the world.

Japanese men ranked fourth, down by one place from the preceding year. Switzerland ranked first, followed by Sweden and Australia.

Of Japanese men born in 2022, 75.3% are expected to live until 75, 25.5% until 90 and 8.7% until 95. The proportion of Japanese women who are expected to live until 75, 90 and 95 stands at 87.9%, 49.8% and 25%, respectively.

Publication Date: 28 July 2023

Publication Site: The Japan Times

MBTA retirement fund is headed for a financial reckoning

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.bostonglobe.com/2023/06/19/opinion/mbta-retirement-fund-finances/

Excerpt:

The MBTA Retirement Fund is going over a cliff, and the reasons why are well known. But neither the T nor its unions are in a hurry to do anything about it.

The new MBTA Retirement Fund Actuarial Valuation Report shows the fund’s balance as of Dec. 31, 2022, was $1.62 billion — about $300 million less than what it was just 12 months earlier. Its liability — the amount it will owe current and future T retirees — is over $3.1 billion, meaning the fund is about 51 percent funded. In 2006, it was 94 percent funded. A “death spiral” generally accelerates when retirement system funding dips below 50 percent.

In April, the Pioneer Public Interest Law Center got the MBTA to hand over an August 2022 arbitration decision regarding a pension dispute between the T and its biggest union. It contained a critical win for the authority: Arbitrator Elizabeth Neumeier decided that most employees would have to work until age 65 to earn a full pension, saving the MBTA at least $12 million annually.

But the Carmen’s Union sued to invalidate that portion of the decision, and the parties returned to the bargaining table. The new pension agreement they hammered out doesn’t include the historic retirement age victory; T management negotiated it away.

….

As of Dec. 31, 2022, 5,555 active employees paid into the fund, but 6,783 retirees collected from it. The biggest reason for the mismatch is the age at which T employees retire. Those hired before December 2012 can retire with a full pension after 23 years of service, regardless of age. Those hired after December 2012 can retire with a full pension at age 55 after 25 years.

The arbitrator finally gave the MBTA the win it so desperately needed, and T management promptly gave it back. Many MBTA managers have long opposed changing the age at which employees can earn a full pension, fearing the reaction of T unions.

….

Hard as it may be to believe, the T retirement fund’s financial outlook is even worse than it appears. Financial projections assume the fund’s assets will earn 7.25 percent annually. Over time, actual returns have been more like 4 percent to 7 percent.

These misleading projections are based on other faulty assumptions. In her 2022 decision, Neumeier refused the MBTA’s request to use newer actuarial tables, ruling that changing would be costly and that there was no compelling reason to update the tables. The ones in place are from 1989 — so old that they assume all T employees are men. Since women tend to live longer, the tables materially understate the retirement fund liability.

Author(s): Mark T. Williams, Charles Chieppo 

Publication Date: 19 Jun 2023

Publication Site: Boston Globe

Excess mortality and life expectancy

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://ulflorr.substack.com/p/excess-mortality-and-life-expectancy

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Fig. 1: Annual values of life expectancy in Germany with fit (blue). The fit did not respect the values for 2021 and 2022.

Excerpt:

Life expectancy is relatively difficult to calculate. The mortality risk has to be determined from death and population figures for each individual year of life. A hurdle is that data are often only available in age cohorts. So the missing values have to be interpolated. Using the mortality risks, a fictitious newborn cohort is projected forward year by year until all have died. A weighted average value is calculated from those who died each year in this modeled time series, yielding the life expectancy.

Life expectancy in Germany increased for many years until 2020, allthough this trend seemed to be gradually approaching a saturation point, which might be around 82 years (Fig. 1).

Author(s): ULF LORRÉ

Publication Date: 30 Mar 2023

Publication Site: Demographic Data Analysis

As US Life Expectancy Falls, Experts Cite the Health Impacts of Incarceration

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://kffhealthnews.org/news/article/prison-health-impact-american-life-expectancy-aging/

Excerpt:

Thousands of people like Jordan are released from prisons and jails every year with conditions such as cancer, heart disease, and infectious diseases they developed while incarcerated. The issue hits hard in Alabama, Louisiana, and other Southeastern states, which have some of the highest incarceration rates in the nation.

A major reason the U.S. trails other developed countries in life expectancy is because it has more people behind bars and keeps them there far longer, said Chris Wildeman, a Duke University sociology professor who has researched the link between criminal justice and life expectancy.

“It’s a health strain on the population,” Wildeman said. “The worse the prison conditions, the more likely it is incarceration can be tied to excess mortality.”

Mass incarceration has a ripple effect across society.

Author(s): Fred Clasen-Kelly

Publication Date: 27 April 2023

Publication Site: KFF Health News

In Communities Where Civic Health Is Poor, Lives Are Shorter

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.governing.com/now/in-communities-where-civic-health-is-poor-lives-are-shorter

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Neglected civic infrastructure — schools, parks, community centers, libraries and other public spaces that help foster a sense of belonging — coupled with barriers to participation in civic life aren’t just manifestations of poor governance. According to the 2023 County Health Rankings & Roadmaps (CHR&R) from the University of Wisconsin Population Health Institute (UWPHI), they have health consequences.

The rankings, published since 2010, were developed to provide insight and guidance for improving health equity. The new report focuses on relationships between the state of civic infrastructure, community engagement and well-being.

“There is a connection between our civic health and thriving people and places,” says Sheri Johnson, the director of UWHPI.

The pandemic made the chronic stress faced by those without access to broadband connections, safe public spaces or other civic resources more visible than ever. Public health researcher Arline Geronimus has been at the forefront of research demonstrating that the stresses of poverty and discrimination actually cause cellular-level damage, overloading the hormonal systems that help us survive dangerous situations.

Author(s): Carl Smith

Publication Date: 4 April 2023

Publication Site: Governing

Pension reform in France: Which countries have the lowest and highest retirement ages in Europe?

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.euronews.com/next/2023/04/06/pension-reform-in-france-which-countries-have-the-lowest-and-highest-retirement-ages-in-eu

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The gap between women and men in expected years of retirement varies from 2.0 years in Ireland to 7.5 years in Cyprus. 

By 2020, European women typically can expect to live 4.3 years more than men after they exit the labour market. 

While the EU average is 4.6 years, in France, the gender gap stands in favour of women by a total of 3.6 years.

Interestingly, life expectancy in retirement for both highly varies across Europe. For men, it ranges from 14 years in Latvia to 24 years in Luxembourg.

For women, it varies from 18.9 years in Latvia to 28.4 years in Greece. Women are expected to have 26 years or more to spend while retired in Belgium, France, Greece, Italy, Luxembourg and Spain.

Author(s): Servet Yanatma

Publication Date: 6 Apr 2023

Publication Site: euronews

Association of Cardiovascular Health With Life Expectancy Free of Cardiovascular Disease, Diabetes, Cancer, and Dementia in UK Adults

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/article-abstract/2801750?guestAccessKey=9c49772f-a1bb-4a29-9a46-445f585b3781&utm_source=silverchair&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=article_alert-jamainternalmedicine&utm_content=olf&utm_term=022723

Cite: JAMA Intern Med. Published online February 27, 2023. doi:10.1001/jamainternmed.2023.0015

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Question  What is the association of cardiovascular health (CVH) levels, estimated by the American Heart Association’s Life’s Essential 8 score, with life expectancy free of major chronic diseases?

Findings  In this cohort study of 135 199 adults from the UK Biobank study, high CVH level was associated with substantially longer life expectancy free of 4 major chronic diseases (cardiovascular disease, diabetes, cancer, and dementia) in both men and women. Furthermore, the disease-free life expectancy was similar between low and other socioeconomic groups among participants with high CVH.

Meaning  These findings support improvement in population health by promoting a high CVH level, which may also narrow health disparities associated with socioeconomic status.

Author(s): Xuan Wang, MD, PhD1; Hao Ma, MD, PhD1; Xiang Li, MD, PhD1; et al

Publication Date: 27 Feb 2023

Publication Site: JAMA Internal Medicine

Japan PM says country on the brink over falling birth rate

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-64373950

Excerpt:

Japan’s prime minister says his country is on the brink of not being able to function as a society because of its falling birth rate.

Fumio Kishida said it was a case of “now or never.”

Japan – population 125 million – is estimated to have had fewer than 800,000 births last year. In the 1970s, that figure was more than two million.

Birth rates are slowing in many countries, including Japan’s neighbours.

But the issue is particularly acute in Japan as life expectancy has risen in recent decades, meaning there are a growing number of older people, and a declining numbers of workers to support them.

Japan now has the world’s second-highest proportion of people aged 65 and over – about 28% – after the tiny state of Monaco, according to World Bank data.

Author(s): George Wright

Publication Date: 23 Jan 2023

Publication Site: BBC

Reductions in US life expectancy during the COVID-19 pandemic by race and ethnicity: Is 2021 a repetition of 2020?

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9432732/

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Abstract:

COVID-19 had a huge mortality impact in the US in 2020 and accounted for most of the overall reduction in 2020 life expectancy at birth. There were also extensive racial/ethnic disparities in the mortality impact of COVID-19 in 2020, with the Black and Latino populations experiencing reductions in life expectancy at birth over twice as large as that of the White population. Despite continued vulnerability of these populations, the hope was that widespread distribution of effective vaccines would mitigate the overall mortality impact and reduce racial/ethnic disparities in 2021. In this study, we quantify the mortality impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on 2021 US period life expectancy by race and ethnicity and compare these impacts to those estimated for 2020. Our estimates indicate that racial/ethnic disparities have persisted, and that the US population experienced a decline in life expectancy at birth in 2021 of 2.2 years from 2019, 0.6 years more than estimated for 2020. The corresponding reductions estimated for the Black and Latino populations are slightly below twice that for Whites, suggesting smaller disparities than those in 2020. However, all groups experienced additional reductions in life expectancy at birth relative to 2020, and this apparent narrowing of disparities is primarily the result of Whites experiencing proportionately greater increases in mortality in 2021 compared with the corresponding increases in mortality for the Black and Latino populations in 2021. Estimated declines in life expectancy at age 65 increased slightly for Whites between 2020 and 2021 but decreased for both the Black and Latino populations, resulting in the same overall reduction (0.8 years) estimated for 2020 and 2021.

Author(s): Theresa Andrasfay, Noreen Goldman

Publication Date: 31 Aug 2022

Publication Site: PLOS ONE

Citation: Andrasfay T, Goldman N. Reductions in US life expectancy during the COVID-19 pandemic by race and ethnicity: Is 2021 a repetition of 2020? PLoS One. 2022 Aug 31;17(8):e0272973. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0272973. PMID: 36044413; PMCID: PMC9432732.

Two Key Takeaways From The New CDC Life Expectancy Data

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.forbes.com/sites/ebauer/2022/09/02/two-key-takeaways-from-the-new-cdc-life-expectancy-data/?sh=6ce149f31cfc

Excerpt:

To what extent, are these drops of life expectancy due to Covid-19, rather than other causes?

From 2019 to 2020, the CDC reports that 90% of the drop in Hispanic life expectancy was attributable to Covid; the corresponding rates were 68% for whites and 59% for blacks. (No breakdown was provided for the AIAN or Asian categories.) However, the CDC data splits its breakdowns into “contributions to decreases” and “contributions to increases” rather than overall net effect. Those readers who are used to looking at data and charts will expect a “waterfall” style chart; the CDC version is not this, and is not particularly helpful.

In any event, relative to the 2020 baseline, the further decreases in life expectancy during 2021 had multiple causes. Only among the White demographic group was Covid the cause of over half of the decline; unintentional injury (including overdoses) was the second-largest contributing factor and for the AIAN demographic group, worsening rates of death due to chronic liver disease and cirrhosis played almost as substantial a role.

And, finally, it is important to understand that the CDC data shows a continued improvement in life expectancy due to reductions in death due to such causes as influenza/pneumonia, COPD/emphysema, Alzheimer disease, diabetes, and perinatal conditions (infant deaths). In fact, strikingly, in 2021, heart disease was a contributor to increased life expectancy in the Black, Hispanic, and Asian demographic groups, but a contributor to decreased life expectancy for the White and AIAN groups.

Again, though, the way the CDC provides its information means that, when it comes down to it, there is much that is simply missing; we do not know the magnitude of the improvements in life expectancy due to these causes, just that it exists. It even seems likely, or at least possible, that some of the apparent improvement in mortality due to these factors was actually because deaths were actually recorded as Covid deaths instead (whether due to multiple causes of death or other reasons).

Author(s): Elizabeth Bauer

Publication Date: 2 Sept 2022

Publication Site: Forbes

COVID-19 and the Short-Term Impact on Future U.S. Mortality

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.soa.org/resources/research-reports/2022/covid-19-short-term-impact-us-mort/

PDF of report: https://www.soa.org/4a28d8/globalassets/assets/files/resources/research-report/2022/covid-19-short-term-impact-us-mort-report.pdf

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Excess mortality is expected to occur for all years studied with amounts varying by year and age.
Although the largest mortality excess numbers for the U.S. general population are foreseen for
2022, excess mortality is expected to decline each year so that by 2030, excess mortality numbers
are nearing expected levels. For 2030, mortality is projected to be 2% higher than expected for all
ages except age 85. At this age, 2030 projected mortality is estimated to be 1% higher than
expected.

Based on the average of the participants, generally, the amount of mortality excess is anticipated to be highest at the younger ages. For example, for 2022, projected mortality is anticipated to be 14% higher
compared to expected levels for age 25, 13% higher for age 45, and 10% higher for ages 65 and 85.

Author(s): Ronora Stryker, ASA, MAAA

Publication Date: August 2022

Publication Site: Society of Actuaries