Category: Climate

5 Commodities That Could Explode As The Ukraine Crisis Escalates

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://oilprice.com/Metals/Commodities/5-Commodities-That-Could-Explode-As-The-Ukraine-Crisis-Escalates.html

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Excerpt:

#4. Copper USGS data shows that Russia produced 920,000 tonnes of refined copper in 2021, about 3.5% of the world total, out of which Nornickel produced 406,841 tonnes.

UMMC and Russian Copper Company are the other two major producers, with Asia and Europe being Russia’s key export markets.

Prices of green metals, including copper, are projected to reach historical peaks for an unprecedented, sustained period in a net-zero emissions scenario. Copper prices are sitting at all-time highs thanks to surging demand, especially in developed countries, with increasing usage in electric vehicles and wind farms, solar panels and the power grid, combined with tight supply. 

Benchmark copper prices on the London Metal Exchange are currently sitting at $10,100 per ton, not far removed from its May 2021 all-time high of 10,724.50 per ton. 

Copper is being billed as the new oil, with the ‘green’ shift in the post-COVID economy supporting higher demand for copper and other base metals since EVs use about 4x more copper than gasoline-powered vehicles. The International Copper Association estimates that the rapid rise of EVs will raise copper demand in EVs from 185,000 tonnes in 2017 to 1.74 million tonnes by 2027.

Author(s): Alex Kimani

Publication Date: 21 Feb 2022

Publication Site: OilPrice.com

Influential fund manager Green Century tells insurers to drop Big Oil

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/influential-fund-manager-green-century-tells-big-insurers-to-drop-big-oil-11645049047?twclid=11498308136175906819

Excerpt:

Green Century Capital Management tried to use shareholder muscle to persuade at least a trio of insurance companies to drop fossil-fuel clients.

So far, the insurance firms aren’t biting; all three have filed no-action requests with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

The resolutions, in advance of proxy season this spring, call on Chubb CB , Travelers TRV and The Hartford HIG to take this bold step as private-sector efforts to curb global warming from the burning of coal, oil CL00 and gas NG00 pick up, alongside global government action.

The insurance resolutions represent the first time that shareholders have laid down this sizable challenge to this industry for what the activists say are its contributions to the climate crisis. 

Author(s): Rachel Koning Beals

Publication Date: 17 Feb 2022

Publication Site: MarketWatch

A Bitcoin mining operation in the Finger Lakes runs up against New York’s climate law

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://gothamist.com/news/bitcoin-mining-operation-finger-lakes-runs-against-new-yorks-climate-law

Excerpt:

Residents and business owners in the Finger Lakes region have been protesting for more than a year against a natural gas plant that has powered a bitcoin mining operation in the area. But the plant’s future faces even greater peril from the state as critics and officials say it flies in the face of an ambitious new state law designed to cut down on carbon emissions.

Since spring 2020, the Greenidge Generation power plant in Dresden, New York has powered a 24-7 bitcoin mining operation, wherein computer servers solve complex algorithms to collect electronic currency. It now supports nearly 20,000 computers that last year produced 1,866 bitcoins with a projected revenue of more than $100 million. The endeavor was so profitable that the company plans to double their computing power and increase power generation close to maximum capacity.

But Greenidge’s red brick smokestacks and metal transformers have long been at odds with the pristine vistas and vineyards of the Finger Lakes. Formerly a coal plant that shuttered in 2011, its revival is once again endangering the region environmentally and economically, according to some residents.

It’s also at odds with New York’s Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act, which mandates a reduction of economy-wide greenhouse gas emissions 40% by 2030 and no less than 85% by 2050 from 1990 levels. And the conflict between the state’s climate goals and a burgeoning new industry reflects a growing tension nationally between the fight against climate change and the energy-intensive pursuit of mining for cryptocurrency.

Author(s): Rosemary Misdary

Publication Date: 17 Feb 2022

Publication Site: Gothamist

2021 Academy Legislative/Regulatory Review

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.actuary.org/sites/default/files/members/alerts/pdf/2022/2022-CP-1.pdf

Excerpt:

The American Academy of Actuaries presents this summary of select significant regulatory and
legislative developments in 2021 at the state, federal, and international levels of interest to the U.S.
actuarial profession as a service to its members.

Introduction

The Academy focused on key policy debates in 2021 regarding pensions and retirement, health, life,
and property and casualty insurance, and risk management and financial reporting.


Responding to the COVID-19 pandemic, addressing ever-changing cyber risk concerns, and analyzing
the implications and actuarial impacts of data science modeling continued to be a focus in 2021.


Practice councils monitored and responded to numerous legislative developments at the state, federal,
and international level. The Academy also increased its focus on the varied impacts of climate risk and
public policy initiatives related to racial equity and unfair discrimination in 2021.


The Academy continues to track the progress of legislative and regulatory developments on actuarially
relevant issues that have carried over into the 2022 calendar year.

Publication Date: 15 Feb 2022

Publication Site: American Academy of Actuaries

“What If I Can’t Insure My Home At All?”

Mary Pat Campbell

Link:https://www.dailyposter.com/what-if-i-cant-insure-my-home-at-all/

Excerpt:

Insurance giants Chubb, Liberty Mutual, and AIG are three of the biggest insurers of fossil fuel infrastructure around the world. But the companies have just announced plans to scale back their homeowner coverage in California, where they insist future climate-related losses will likely prevent them from turning a profit.

The coverage withdrawals may soon ignite a big money battle in the state’s legislature, pitting insurance giants against lawmakers trying to preserve coverage for their constituents. Meanwhile, climate campaigners are decrying what they say is a fundamental hypocrisy.

…..

Last year, Chubb’s chairman and CEO Evan Greenberg said the company was reducing its coverage in parts of the state that were “both highly exposed, and even moderately exposed, to wildfire” because it was unable to obtain an “adequate price for the risk, and not by a small amount” due to both the costs of wildfires and California’s regulatory climate.

…..

A main solution proposed by industry is that they be allowed to use “catastrophic modeling,” a method where rates are set based on predictions of future losses, rather than recorded past losses, as is currently the case. All other states allow the use of this technique in at least some cases.

Author(s): Sam Mellins

Publication Date: 7 Feb 2022

Publication Site: The Daily Poster

Climate Scientists Encounter Limits of Computer Models, Bedeviling Policy

Mary Pat Campbell

Link:https://www.wsj.com/articles/climate-change-global-warming-computer-model-11642191155?mod=hp_lead_pos10

Excerpt:

At least 20 older climate models disagreed with the new one at NCAR, an open-source model called the Community Earth System Model 2, or CESM2, funded mainly by the U.S. National Science Foundation and arguably the world’s most influential. Then, one by one, a dozen climate-modeling groups around the world produced similar forecasts.

The scientists soon concluded their new calculations had been thrown off kilter by the physics of clouds in a warming world, which may amplify or damp climate change. “The old way is just wrong, we know that,” said Andrew Gettelman, a physicist at NCAR who specializes in clouds and helped develop the CESM2 model. “I think our higher sensitivity is wrong too. It’s probably a consequence of other things we did by making clouds better and more realistic. You solve one problem and create another.”

Since then the CESM2 scientists have been reworking their algorithms using a deluge of new information about the effects of rising temperatures to better understand the physics at work. They have abandoned their most extreme calculations of climate sensitivity, but their more recent projections of future global warming are still dire — and still in flux.

…..

Skeptics have scoffed at climate models for decades, saying they overstate hazards. But a growing body of research shows many climate models have been uncannily accurate. For one recent study, scientists at NASA, the Breakthrough Institute in Berkeley, Calif., and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology evaluated 17 models used between 1970 and 2007 and found most predicted climate shifts were “indistinguishable from what actually occurred.”

Still, models remain prone to technical glitches and are hampered by an incomplete understanding of the variables that control how our planet responds to heat-trapping gases.

Author(s): Robert Lee Hotz

Publication Date: 6 Feb 2022

Publication Site: WSJ

Mapped: Visualizing U.S. Oil Production by State

Mary Pat Campbell

Link:https://www.visualcapitalist.com/mapped-u-s-oil-production-by-state/

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Excerpt:

A total of 32 of the 50 U.S. states produce oil. They are divided among five regional divisions for oil production in the U.S., known as the Petroleum Administration for Defense Districts (PADD).

These five regional divisions of the allocation of fuels were established in the U.S. during the Second World War and are still used today for data collection purposes.

Given that Texas is the largest U.S. oil-producing state, PADD 3 (Gulf Coast) is also the largest oil-producing PADD. PADD 3 also includes the federal offshore region in the Gulf of Mexico. There are around 400 operational oil and gas rigs in the country.

Author(s): Anshool Deshmukh

Publication Date: 10 Aug 2021

Publication Site: Visual Capitalist

California Public Pensions Are Major Fossil Fuel Investors

Mary Pat Campbell

Link:https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/california_public_pensions_are_major_fossil_fuel_investors-09-dec-2021-167254-article/

Excerpt:

California’s climate-conscious policies aren’t matched by the investment choices of its largest public pension funds, according to a report from two environmental groups. 

Of the 14 top U.S. pension funds analyzed by Stand.earth and Climate Safe Pensions Network, California Public Employees’ Retirement System, known as Calpers, and California State Teachers’ Retirement System, known as CalSTRS, were the largest investors in fossil fuel companies, with $27.1 billion and $15.7 billion, respectively, according to findings published Wednesday. 

The two combined hold about half the fossil fuel assets for the entire group, according to the study. Calpers also came first in fossil fuel holdings as a proportion of its total assets under management, at 6.9%.  

….

The New York State Teachers’ Retirement System had the second-largest share of its portfolio invested in fossil fuels, at 6.6%. 

Author(s): Robert Tuttle

Publication Date: 9 Dec 2021

Publication Site: Rigzone

2022 Predictions

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/2022-predictions-max-rudolph/

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Regional conflicts are heating up around the world. Resource needs will accelerate the trend. Fresh water in the Himalayas provide multiple countries who have nuclear arsenals. Oil and rare earth metals could also trigger a war. Climatic events are happening more often, so the cost takes money away from solutions while making the goals seem more obvious.

….

Resource depletion has no recommended debit treatment from accountants, but attribution analysis is going to do the work after the fact and charge companies for their past practices through the court system. I assume this is how the asbestos risk played out but I will need to learn more about similar historical events as these events play out. How should this enter your thought process as an investor? In 2021 I wrote 4 papers about climate; Climate System, Integrated Assessment Models, Impact of Climate Change on Investors and Municipalities and Climate Change. They are part of the SOA’s Environmental Risk Series. The impact of climate on investors will continue to evolve for many years. One topic of interest to me is how TCFD (disclosures) will play out – we could see “bad” investments like oil companies, gun makers and cigarette companies become privately owned. This would make it harder to apply peer pressure so is an important reminder to be careful what you wish for!

Author(s): Max Rudolph

Publication Date: 16 Jan 2022

Publication Site: LinkedIn

Fossil Fuel Investments Are Burning California Pensioners

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.dailyposter.com/fossil-fuel-investments-are-burning-california-pensioners/

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California’s two biggest pension funds have invested a staggering $43 billion in fossil fuel companies, and their opposition to divesting from the industry — including fighting legislation that would have stopped them investing in firms involved with the controversial Dakota Access Pipeline (DAPL) — has cost retirees and taxpayers billions, research shows.

The findings hammer home the fact that the divestment movement isn’t just about protecting the planet from the worst effects of climate change. With the oil, gas, and coal industries all on the decline, pension funds’ refusal to divest from fossil fuels is also endangering the retirement savings of teachers, government employees, and other rank-and-file public workers who have paid into these funds.

….

While it is common knowledge that fossil fuel stocks have underperformed the broader stock market, large bank stocks have been lackluster as well — including the banks that helped finance DAPL.

If CalPERS and CalSTRS had not opposed the original DAPL divestment legislation, they could have instead put pressure on the companies involved not to move forward with the pipeline, and such efforts might have been enough to stop the project, given the pipeline project’s turbulent history.

Author(s): MATTHEW CUNNINGHAM-COOK, ANDREW PEREZ

Publication Date: 11 Jan 2022

Publication Site: The Daily Poster

NYS Pension Fund Commits $2 Billion to Climate Transition Index

Mary Pat Campbell

Link:https://www.osc.state.ny.us/press/releases/2021/12/nys-pension-fund-commits-2-billion-climate-transition-index?utm_source=weekly%20news&utm_medium=email&utm_term=climate%20transition%20index&utm_content=20211212&utm_campaign=pension%20fund&section=feature

Excerpt:

The New York State Common Retirement Fund (Fund) will invest $2 billion in an index focused on reducing the risks of climate change and capitalizing on the opportunities arising from the transition to a low-carbon economy, State Comptroller Thomas P. DiNapoli, trustee of the fund, announced today. This is part of the Comptroller’s Climate Action Plan announced in 2019 and his goal for the Fund of net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2040.

The Fund will allocate $2 billion within its internally managed public equity portfolio to FTSE Russell’s Russell 1000 TPI Climate Transition Index (CTI) in connection with the Fund’s Sustainable Investment & Climate Solutions (SICS) program.

Author(s): Thomas DiNapoli

Publication Date: 9 Dec 2021

Publication Site: Office of the NY State Comptroller

Finance Group Fails To Deliver at COP26

Mary Pat Campbell

Link:https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2021/11/finance-group-fails-to-deliver-at-cop26.html

Excerpt:

Not One of 60 Major Commercial Banks Has ‘Leadership Position on Decarbonizing’

Yet the trend line of bank finance for fossil fuels is rising not declining, and not a single big commercial bank has released a plan to stop financing new fossil fuels.

It’s striking that unlike any of other sectors implicated in speeding global warming, not a single one of the 60 major commercial banks has staked out a leadership position on decarbonizing.

On the other labelled days of COP, there were all kinds of interesting mash-ups of governments, private sector actors, and think tanks offering a web of creative announcements about their determination to set ambition on one thing or another. By contrast, on Private Finance Day, the one and only announcement was relating to GFANZ. Banks and investors didn’t even try to push out additional good ideas. Everyone covered themselves in the GFANZ penumbra and then went quiet.

Author(s): Michael Northrop

Publication Date: 30 Nov 2021

Publication Site: naked capitalism