Category: Demographics

A Widening Gap in Life Expectancy Makes Raising Social Security’s Retirement Age a Particularly Bad Deal for Low-Wage Earners

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://sections.soa.org/publication/?m=58953&i=668685&view=articleBrowser&article_id=3731911&ver=html5

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Many recent studies find the life expectancy gap is growing. By how much depends on how and when it’s measured. In 2014, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) calculated that a 65-yearold man in the upper quintile (fifth) of life earnings could be expected to live more than three years longer than a similar man in the lowest quintile. By 2039, the difference would double to six years.

In a 2015 report, the National Academy of Sciences compared the 1930 and 1960 birth cohorts and found that life expectancy for the bottom quintile of men at age 50 decreased slightly to 26.1 years over the 30-year period. Meanwhile, life expectancy rose for men age 50 in higher-income quintiles. As shown in Figure 1, the life expectancy gap between the bottom (quintile 1) and top fifth of the income distribution widened from 5.1 to 12.7 years. In 2016, a Brookings study found, for men born in 1940, those in the lowest income decile at age 50 could expect to live to be about 76 years old compared with 88 years for the highest income decile. Another research team, led by Raj Chetty, found that disparity in longevity continued to increase over 2001–2014; the average gap between the bottom and top 1 percent was 14.6 years for men and 10.1 years for women.

Author(s): Karl Polzer

Publication Date: August 2020

Publication Site: In the Public Interest, SOA

Visualizing the Coming Shift in Global Economic Power (2006-2036p)

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.visualcapitalist.com/shifting-global-economic-power/

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China is expected to surpass the U.S. by the year 2030. A faster than expected recovery in the U.S. in 2021, and China’s struggles under the “Zero-COVID” policies have delayed the country taking the top spot by about two years.

China has maintained its positive GDP growth due to the stability provided by domestic demand. This has proven crucial in sustaining the country’s economic growth. China’s fiscal and economic policy had focused on this prior to the pandemic over fears of growing Western trade restrictions.

Author(s): Raul Amoros

Publication Date: 13 Jun 2022

Publication Site: Visual Capitalist

15 States Where Older Adults Are Going Back to Work

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.thinkadvisor.com/2022/06/09/15-states-where-older-adults-are-going-back-to-work/

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Two years after the pandemic hobbled the U.S. economy, pushing up unemployment, Americans are returning to work, including many adults 65 and older, according to new research from MagnifyMoney.

In late April and early May this year, 21.9% of Americans 65 and older were working, up from 19.5% during the same period in 2020. At the same time, the share of U.S. adults who reported that they were retired rose to 17.4% in April and May 2022 from 14.9% two years earlier.

MagnifyMoney found that 25.6% of working older Americans are self-employed, more than triple the rate among working Americans 25 to 39.

The number of working older Americans varies dramatically across the country. In North Dakota, for example, the rate dropped by 11 percentage points over the two-year period, and in Wisconsin by 8.3 points. In contrast, several states saw double-digit increases in employed Americans 65 and older during that period.

Author(s): Michael S. Fischer

Publication Date: 9 Jun 2022

Publication Site: Think Advisor

As our entitlements crisis gets closer, a solution moved farther away

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/06/09/social-security-medicare-crisis-approaching/

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The annual Social Security trustees report is once again upon us, and this year it actually bears some good news: The projections give us an extra year before the trust fund is exhausted in 2035.

At least, this sounded like good news when I first heard it. Then I remembered that I have been writing about these trustees reports for more than 15 years. When I started, all these projections sounded comfortably far off — we had decades to fix the problem! Now we have 13 years. And in all that time, we have done nothing at all, except watch the date of insolvency advance.

In 2008, it was 2040, and the people likely to be worst affected — those who would be eligible to retire just as the trust fund was exhausted — were 35. Now, the people facing the most disruption are 54, much closer to retirement than to their college graduation.

In the meantime, the politics of fixing America’s old-age entitlements has gotten considerably worse.

Author(s): Megan McArdle

Publication Date: 9 June 2022

Publication Site: Washington Post

The state pension – a creaking centenarian

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://cpd180322.pensions-expert.com/

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Separate SPAs for men and women were introduced in 1940 — age 65 for men and 60 for women, with a decision to equalise the SPA for men and women trailed in the 1993 white paper ‘Equality in state pension age’. Now that the same age applies for both men and women, at 66, there is still huge controversy over the notice period and quality of information given to women over the age of 50 on the exact timetables for this change. 

Demography has increasingly put the whole system under strain. Andrew Tully, technical director at Canada Life, warns: “By 2045, the number of people of pensionable age will grow to 15.2mn, an increase of 28 per cent on the level in 2020. The ‘oldest old’ cohort is also increasing, with the number of people aged 85 and over projected to almost double to 3.1mn by 2045. 

“At the same time, the working age population will increase by much less — around 4.5 per cent up by the mid-2030s, but then remaining around that level by 2045. Meanwhile, we are seeing a decrease in the number of children, with those aged 0 to 15 projected to fall by nearly 9 per cent by mid-2030.”

Author(s): Stephanie Hawthorne

Publication Date: 18 March 2022

Publication Site: Pensions Expert

A Four-Day Workweek Will Benefit Everyone, But Especially Women

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://jacobin.com/2022/03/four-day-workweek-trial-gender-pension-gap

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A four-day week would make it easier to balance life and work responsibilities. This would decrease the pressure on women to drop out of full-time employment and make it easier for others to rejoin full-time employment if they wish. It would also decrease underemployment, lessen the costs of paid childcare, and help level the playing field for unpaid care work by keeping men at home longer.

A recent policy paper published by the Women’s Budget Group comments in regard to a four-day week: “As the marginal worker is usually female, this effect could reduce gender gaps in both employment and income.” As the definition of full-time employment is decreased, more women will surpass the £10,000 a year threshold for autoenrollment and also have higher sustained pension contributions throughout their working life.

Belmont Packaging in Wigan, a company that practices a four-day week, asked its employees how they spend their three-day weekend. One employee said, “It’s like a bank holiday every week. Not exactly like one, because the wife has me doing chores every Friday.” During the early months of the pandemic, when many workers were kept at home, research showed that men took on a greater share of housework and women’s disproportionate burden decreased.

Author(s): James Derry

Publication Date: 25 March 2022

Publication Site: Jacobin

A Third of States Lost Population in 2021

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.pewtrusts.org/en/research-and-analysis/articles/2022/04/25/a-third-of-states-lost-population-in-2021

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Among the 17 states where population declined over the year, losses were greatest in New York (-1.58%), Illinois (-0.89%), Hawaii (-0.71%) and California (-0.66%). Losses in these states were driven by people moving away.

Four states experienced population declines because more people moved out than in, and more people died than were born: Massachusetts, Mississippi, Michigan, and New Mexico. The data does not separate deaths related to COVID-19 from others.

Aside from states with declines, population grew slower over the year than over the 2010-20 period in 19 states. Among them, Washington, Colorado, and Oregon experienced the biggest slowdown in growth compared with their decade-long pace.

After Idaho and Utah, population grew the fastest in Montana (1.66%), Arizona (1.37%), South Carolina (1.17%), Delaware (1.16%), and Texas (1.06%). Gains in each came mostly from new residents moving into the state.

Fourteen states grew more quickly than their 10-year paces. Idaho, Montana, Maine and New Hampshire sped up the most.

Nationwide, gains from international migration exceeded gains from the natural increase in 2021. It was the first time that newcomers from other countries contributed more to population growth than gains from births in a given year, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.

Author(s): Joanna Biernacka-Lievestro & Alexandre Fall

Publication Date: 12 May 2022

Publication Site: Pew

Pension Withdrawals Drain Savings in Chile and Peru

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.fitchratings.com/research/sovereigns/pension-withdrawals-drain-savings-in-chile-peru-01-06-2022

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Peru, Chile and Bolivia have allowed early withdrawals from their funds as a source of relief for households and to support recoveries during the pandemic and the global price shock. But these have had negative financial and confidence ramifications, contributing to downgrades of Peru in 2021 and Chile in 2020. Longstanding private pension funds have been important supports for sovereign creditworthiness where they exist in Latin America.

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Peru’s Congress approved a sixth withdrawal from private pension funds in May. Prior rounds due to the pandemic led to withdrawals of USD17.8 billion or 8% of 2021 GDP. In Chile, a fourth withdrawal proposal failed in April 2022, but Chileans have already withdrawn about USD50 billion (16% of 2021 GDP) in 2020-2021. Bolivia allowed early withdrawals once in 2021 for more limited amounts (0.4% of 2021 GDP).

Publication Date: 1 June 2022

Publication Site: Fitch Ratings

New York loses $19.5 billion in population exodus, IRS confirms

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.thecentersquare.com/new_york/new-york-loses-19-5-billion-in-population-exodus-irs-confirms/article_c805dfd6-dde6-11ec-8d0e-4f667cd41881.html

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The Internal Revenue Service this week released more troubling data for New York, with the federal agency showing more high-earning taxpayers leaving the state.

Tracking returns filed in 2019 and 2020 showed that 479,826 people left New York for another state or country in those years. Over the same timeframe, just 231,439 people moved to the state. That means the state suffered a net loss of 248,387 residents.

And, of course, those people took their money with them. The IRS figures show the moves generated an economic exodus of more than $19.5 billion.

New Jersey and Florida were the biggest beneficiaries. More than 84,500 people moved from New York to New Jersey and took $5.3 billion. By contrast, only 37,127 New Jersey residents moved to New York and brought $2.2 billion in income.

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Wirepoints, in its analysis, noted New York suffered the worst net loss of income of any state, with the $19.5 billion representing a 2.5 percent decline in adjusted gross income. 

Author(s): Steve Bittenbender

Publication Date: 28 May 2022

Publication Site: The Center Square

Why Elon Musk thinks civilization could crumble without more babies

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.deseret.com/2022/5/26/23142871/elon-musk-population-falling-birthrates-japan-south-korea-us-fertility-italy

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Elon Musk thinks human civilization will fall apart unless people have more babies — and he’s expressed particular worries about Italy, Hong Kong, South Korea and Japan. But he has some concerns about the United States, too.

For weeks, Musk, the CEO of Tesla and SpaceX, the acquirer of Twitter in a $44 billion deal and a father himself, has been tweeting about birthrate declines in America and abroad.

“At risk of stating the obvious, unless something changes to cause the birth rate to exceed the death rate, Japan will eventually cease to exist,” Musk tweeted on May 7, according to TheStreet. “This would be a great loss to the world.”

Author(s): Lois M. Collins

Publication Date: 26 May 2022

Publication Site: Deseret News

Census: Illinois cities combined lose 104,000 people in 2021

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.thecentersquare.com/illinois/census-illinois-cities-combined-lose-104-000-people-in-2021/article_5a261c26-dc63-11ec-8881-f30cf9c72ea4.html?utm_source=Master+List&utm_campaign=e66598c836-MICHIGAN_B2C_NEWSLETTER&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_d03ba9ddf1-e66598c836-74692253

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Cities and towns in Illinois lost more than 104,000 people in the 12 months up to July 1, 2021, according to new U.S. Census data released Thursday. Nearly half of Illinois’ losses were from Chicago.

The report for the entire country shows populations continue to shift to towns in the South and West regions of the United States.

“Arizona, Texas, Florida and Idaho all had several places among the 15 fastest-growing cities or towns,” the report said.

Of the 15 largest cities, New York lost nearly 305,500 people. Chicago lost 45,175 people, which was larger than Los Angeles’ loss of 40,537 people. Chicago is the third most populous city behind New York and L.A..

Author(s): Greg Bishop

Publication Date: 26 May 2022

Publication Site: The Center Square

How is Population Shifting in Cities or Towns in Your State?

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.census.gov/library/visualizations/interactive/population-shifting-in-cities-or-towns-2021.html

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Publication Date: 26 May 2022

Publication Site: U.S. Census