Category: Healthcare

The obscure maths theorem that governs the reliability of Covid testing

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/apr/18/obscure-maths-bayes-theorem-reliability-covid-lateral-flow-tests-probability

Excerpt:

This is important to know when thinking about “lateral flow tests” (LFTs), the rapid Covid tests that the government has made available to everyone in England, free, up to twice a week. The idea is that in time they could be used to give people permission to go into crowded social spaces – pubs, theatres – and be more confident that they do not have, and so will not spread, the disease. They’ve been used in secondary schools for some time now.

There are concerns over LFTs. One is whether they’ll miss a large number of cases, because they’re less sensitive than the slower but more precise polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test. Those concerns are understandable, although defenders of the test say that PCR testing is too sensitive, able to detect viral material in people who had the disease weeks ago, while LFTs should, in theory, only detect people who are infectious.

But another concern is that they will tell people that they do have the disease when in fact they don’t – that they will return false positives.

Author(s): Tom Chivers

Publication Date: 18 April 2021

Publication Site: The Guardian

In clinical and real world trials, China’s Sinovac underperforms

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2021/04/15/in-clinical-and-real-world-trials-chinas-sinovac-underperforms

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Excerpt:

THE LATEST results for China’s CoronaVac vaccine, developed by Sinovac Biotech, a Beijing-based pharmaceutical company, were disappointing for the aspiring scientific and technological powerhouse. Phase-three trials, which were conducted on health-care workers in Brazil, yielded an efficacy rate of just 50.7% (with a 95% confidence interval of 35.7% to 62.2%), just barely above the 50% threshold set by the World Health Organisation for covid-19 vaccines (see chart). The results of a real-world trial released a week earlier were even worse: the vaccine was estimated to be just 49.6% effective (11.3% to 71.4%) against symptomatic covid-19 cases; when asymptomatic infections were included, this figure dropped to a dismal 35.1%.

The Chinese authorities’ reaction did little to boost confidence. After news broke of the discouraging results, Gao Fu, head of the Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, admitted at a conference on April 10th that current vaccines “don’t have very high rates of protection”, and suggested that vaccines could be mixed to improve efficacy. Mr Gao later backtracked from the comments, claiming that it was “a complete misunderstanding”.

Publication Date: 15 April 2021

Publication Site: The Economist

Covid-19 Cases Rise in Parts of U.S. Even as Vaccinations Pick Up

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-faces-critical-weeks-as-covid-19-cases-rise-again-in-some-places-11618845433

Excerpt:

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported Monday that the seven-day average of new Covid-19 cases is at more than 67,443, up 1% from the prior seven-day average of 66,702. Four weeks ago, the seven-day average was 53,000 cases a day, said Rochelle Walensky, director of the CDC, during a press briefing Monday.

The U.S. is in a “complicated stage” of the pandemic, Dr. Walensky said.

“The more people get vaccinated, the fewer infections there will be, which means fewer variants will emerge and fewer breakthrough infections will occur and the quicker we can get back to doing the things we love,” said Dr. Walensky.

More than a quarter of the U.S. population has now been fully vaccinated against Covid-19, according to CDC data. The country administered an average of 3.2 million doses a day over the past week, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis of CDC data.

As of Monday, all American adults are eligible to receive a Covid-19 vaccine, with every state meeting the April 19 deadline set by President Biden.

Author(s): Melanie Grayce West

Publication Date: 19 April 2021

Publication Site: Wall Street Journal

Massachusetts COVID-19 Vaccine Tracker

Mary Pat Campbell
COVID-19 Vaccine Tracker

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Excerpt:

COVID-19 vaccination, particularly the disparity of rates between racial and ethnic groups, takes up much of the current talk about the pandemic. The Massachusetts Department of Public Health (DPH) publishes vaccination data every day, for municipalities, tracking rates by age group, racial and ethnic groups, and by gender.

Pioneer is proud to present a new vaccine tracker, the newest tool in our COVID-19 tracking project. Pioneer distilled the vaccination data down to those who are either fully vaccinated or partially vaccinated, by all the demographic categories published by the DPH. Use the new tool below to compare rates among groups, by municipality and by county. We will update the data every week.

Date Accessed: 20 April 2021

Publication Site: Pioneer Institute

What Makes You More Likely to Get Side Effects From COVID Vaccine?

Mary Pat Campbell
What Makes You More Likely to Get Side Effects From COVID Vaccine?

Excerpt:

Chicago’s top doctor, Chicago Department of Public Health Commissioner Dr. Allison Arwady, broke it down Thursday, saying in Facebook Live that younger people are more likely to experience side effects “because younger people have more robust immune system broadly.”

And, according to Loafman, the body’s immune system is what creates the symptoms.

“That’s simply a reflection of the immune response, just the way we have when we get ill,” he said.

Publication Date: 13 April 2021

Publication Site: NBC Chicago

Prolonged brain dysfunction in COVID-19 survivors: A pandemic in its own right?

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://theconversation.com/prolonged-brain-dysfunction-in-covid-19-survivors-a-pandemic-in-its-own-right-158743

Excerpt:

One in three survivors of COVID-19, those more commonly referred to as COVID-19 long-haulers, suffered from neurologic or psychiatric disability six months after infection, a recent landmark study of more than 200,000 post-COVID-19 patients showed.

Researchers looked at 236,379 British patients diagnosed with COVID-19 over six months, analyzing neurologic and psychiatric complications during that time period. They compared those individuals to others who had experienced similar respiratory illnesses that were not COVID-19.

They found a significant increase in several medical conditions among the COVID-19 group, including memory loss, nerve disorders, anxiety, depression, substance abuse and insomnia. Additionally, the symptoms were present among all age groups and in patients who were asymptomatic, isolating in home quarantine, and those admitted to hospitals.

Author(s): Chris Robinson

Publication Date: 15 April 2021

Publication Site: The Conversation

Bill Reintroduced to Shore Up Social Security, Medicare

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.thinkadvisor.com/2021/04/15/bill-reintroduced-to-shore-up-social-security-medicare/

Excerpt:

A bipartisan group of lawmakers reintroduced Thursday legislation to shore up the Social Security and Medicare Trust Funds.

The Time to Rescue United States Trusts, or TRUST Act, would establish bipartisan, bicameral commissions to address the long-term solvency of major trust funds.

….

The Congressional Budget Office projects the Highway Trust Fund will be insolvent by 2022, the Medicare Hospital Insurance Trust Fund in 2026, the Social Security retirement fund in 2032, and Social Security Disability Insurance in 2035.

Author(s): Melanie Waddell

Publication Date: 15 April 2021

Publication Site: Think Advisor

J&J Covid-19 Vaccine Pause Driven by Risk of Mistreating Blood Clots

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.wsj.com/articles/j-j-covid-19-vaccine-was-paused-over-blood-clot-treatment-concerns-11618777554

Excerpt:

U.S. health authorities came close to simply warning about a blood-clotting risk from Johnson & Johnson’s Covid-19 vaccine, but they decided to recommend pausing use out of concern doctors would improperly treat the condition, people familiar with the matter said.

Over the previous four weeks, U.S. health officials had become alarmed about similar blood-clotting conditions in Europe involving a Covid-19 vaccine from AstraZeneca PLC, the people said. The officials dug into a U.S. vaccine safety database and identified the cases of great concern, but they debated what action to take.

By the night of April 12, the officials resolved that urgent action was needed, the people said. Four of six women in the U.S. who developed the clots days after vaccination had initially been given blood thinner heparin, according to the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Its use could have worsened the patients’ condition, the people said.

Author(s): Thomas M. Burton and Betsy McKay

Publication Date: 18 April 2021

Publication Site: Wall Street Journal

Cerebral venous thrombosis: a retrospective cohort study of 513,284 confirmed COVID-19 cases and a comparison with 489,871 people receiving a COVID-19 mRNA vaccine

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://osf.io/a9jdq/

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Abstract:

Using an electronic health records network we estimated the absolute incidence of cerebral venous thrombosis (CVT) in the two weeks following COVID-19 diagnosis(N=513,284), or influenza (N=172,742), or receipt of the BNT162b2 or mRNA-1273 COVID-19 vaccines(N=489,871). The incidence of portal vein thrombosis (PVT) was also assessed in these groups, as well as the baselineCVTincidence over a two-week period. The incidence of CVT after COVID-19 diagnosis was 39.0 per million people (95% CI, 25.2–60.2). This was higher than the CVT incidence after influenza (0.0 per million people, 95% CI 0.0–22.2, adjusted RR=6.73, P=.003) or after receiving BNT162b2 or mRNA-1273 vaccine (4.1 per million people, 95% CI 1.1–14.9, adjusted RR=6.36, P<.001). The relative risks were similar if a broader definition of CVT was used. For PVT, the incidence was 436.4 per million people (382.9-497.4) after COVID-19, 98.4 (61.4-157.6) after influenza, and 44.9 (29.7-68.0) after BNT162b2 or mRNA-1273. The incidence of CVT following COVID-19 was higher than the incidence observed across the entire health records network (0.41 per million people over any 2-week period). Laboratory test results, available in a subset of the COVID-19 patients, provide preliminary evidence suggestive of raised D-dimer, lowered fibrinogen, and an increased rate of thrombocytopenia in the CVT and PVT groups. Mortality was 20% and 18.8% respectively. These data show that the incidence of CVT is significantly increased after COVID-19, and greater than that observed with BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273 COVID-19 vaccines. The risk of CVT following COVID-19 is also higher than the latest estimate from the European Medicines Agency for the incidence associated withChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine (5.0 per million people, 95% CI 4.3–5.8). Although requiring replication and corroboration, the present data highlight the risk of serious thrombotic events in COVID-19, and can help contextualize the risks and benefits of vaccination in this regard.

Author(s): Maxime Taquet, Masud Husain, John R Geddes, Sierra Luciano, Paul J Harrison

Date Accessed: 19 April 2021

Publication Site: OSFHOME

Blood clots as prevalent with Pfizer and Moderna vaccine as with AstraZeneca’s: study

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/blood-clots-as-prevalent-with-pfizer-and-moderna-vaccine-as-with-astrazenecas-report-2021-04-15

Excerpt:

A study by Oxford University found the number of people who receive blood clots after getting vaccinated with a coronavirus vaccine are about the same for those who get Pfizer PFE, 2.43% and Moderna MRNA, 6.67% vaccines as they are for the AstraZeneca AZN, -0.16% vaccine that was produced with the university’s help. According to the study, 4 in 1 million people experience cerebral venous thrombosis after getting the Pfizer or Moderna vaccine, versus 5 in 1 million people for the AstraZeneca vaccine. The risk of getting CVT is much higher for those who get COVID-19 — 39 in a million patients — than it is for those who get vaccinated. AstraZeneca’s vaccine use has been halted or limited in many countries on blood clot concerns.

Author(s): Steve Goldstein

Publication Date: 15 April 2021

Publication Site: Marketwatch

U.S. Calls for Pause on Johnson & Johnson Vaccine After Clotting Cases

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/13/us/politics/johnson-johnson-vaccine-blood-clots-fda-cdc.html

Excerpt:

Federal health agencies on Tuesday called for an immediate pause in use of Johnson & Johnson’s single-dose coronavirus vaccine after six recipients in the United States developed a rare disorder involving blood clots within about two weeks of vaccination.

All six recipients were women between the ages of 18 and 48. One woman died and a second woman in Nebraska has been hospitalized in critical condition.

Nearly seven million people in the United States have received Johnson & Johnson shots so far, and roughly nine million more doses have been shipped out to the states, according to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Author(s): Noah Weiland, Sharon LaFraniere, Carl Zimmer

Publication Date: 13 April 2021

Publication Site: New York Times

China admits its vaccines aren’t very good

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.politico.com/news/2021/04/11/china-covid-vaccines-480802

Excerpt:

In a rare admission of the weakness of Chinese coronavirus vaccines, the country’s top disease control official says their effectiveness is low and the government is considering mixing them to get a boost.

Chinese vaccines “don’t have very high protection rates,” said the director of the China Centers for Disease Control, Gao Fu, at a conference Saturday in the southwestern city of Chengdu.

Author(s): Associated Press

Publication Date: 11 April 2021

Publication Site: Politico