All about risk
Link: https://content.naic.org/research_moody.htm
Historical record: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Sgi6XVzK0_sCtAWuCnUD02eObOTC3S4xlQgMep32OeU/edit?usp=sharing
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Publication Date: accessed 9 Dec 2022
Publication Site: NAIC
Link: https://www.soa.org/resources/research-reports/2022/mort-improve-survey/
Report PDF: https://www.soa.org/4ad811/globalassets/assets/files/resources/research-report/2022/mort-improve-survey.pdf
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Excerpt:
The Committee on Life Insurance Mortality and Underwriting Surveys of the Society of Actuaries sent
companies a survey in May of 2019 on mortality improvement practices as of year-end 2018. The survey
results were released in January 2022. The survey was completed by respondents prior to the onset of
COVID-19. The present report provides an opportunity to update the results for pandemic-based changes
and compare the before and after surveys.
The 2022 survey was opened in March 2022 and closed by the end of April. Thirty-five respondent
companies participated in this survey, with 29 from the U.S. and six from Canada. This group was further
divided between direct writers (26) and reinsurers (nine).
This survey focused on the use of mortality improvement and how it has changed for financial projection
and pricing modeling following the initial stages of COVID-19. Details regarding assumptions and opinions
on mortality improvement in general were asked of the respondents.
National Association of Insurance Commissioners discussions on mortality improvement factors due to
COVID-19 for reserving purposes have taken place, but this survey was conducted before any adjustments
reacting to them.
Seventy-four percent (26 of 35) of respondents indicated using durational mortality improvement
assumptions in their life and annuity pricing and/or financial projections. Moreover, of those that used
durational mortality improvement assumptions, attained age and gender were the top two characteristics
in which assumptions varied.
Respondents were asked to indicate the different limitations when applying durational mortality
improvement assumptions. The Survey found that the most common lowest and highest attained age to
which durational mortality improvement was applied were 0 and about 100, respectively. The lowest and
highest durational mortality improvement rate ranged from -1.50% (deterioration) to 2.80%
(improvement). The time period in which the mortality improvement rates were applied ranged from 10 to
120 years, but this varied between life (10/120) and annuities (30/120). The most common time period was
20 to 30 years for life; less consensus was seen for annuities. Analysis is provided in Appendix C for
instances when highlights are shared in the body of the report.
Author(s): Ronora Stryker, Max Rudolph
Publication Date: December 2022
Publication Site: SOA Research Institute
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Unfair Discrimination without Disproportionate Impact. As previously defined, unfair discrimination occurs when rating variables that have no relationship to expected loss are used. A hypothetical example could be if an insurer decided to use rating factors that charged those with red cars higher rates, even if the data did not show this. In this case, there would be no disproportionate impact, assuming protected classes do not own a large majority of red cars.
Disparate Treatment. Disparate treatment and unfair discrimination are not directly related if we use the Fair Trade Act definition of unfair discrimination. However, in states where rating on protected class is defined to be unfair discrimination, disparate treatment would be a subset of unfair discrimination. In such cases, an insurer would explicitly use protected class to charge higher rates, with the intention of prejudicing against that class.
Intentional Proxy Discrimination. If proxy discrimination is defined to require intent, it would be a subset of disparate treatment, whereby an insurer would deliberately substitute a facially neutral variable for protected class for the purpose of discrimination. Redlining is an example of this type of discrimination, given the use of location characteristics as proxies for race and social class.
Disproportionate Impact. Disproportionate impact focuses on effect on protected class, even if there is a relationship to expected loss. An example of this is the one mentioned in the AAA study, whereby a rating plan that uses age could disproportionately impact a minority group if those in that minority group tend to have higher risk ages. This disproportionate impact is not necessarily the same as proxy discrimination, since it is likely that even after controlling for minority status, age would have a relationship to
expected costs.Unintentional Proxy Discrimination. If proxy discrimination is defined to be unintentional, the focus is more on disproportionate outcomes and the variables used to substitute for protected class. Several variables are being investigated by regulators to potentially be proxy discrimination and include criminal history for auto insurance rating. In order to prove proxy discrimination, an analysis would have to be performed to understand the extent to which criminal history proxies for minority status, and whether its predictive power would decrease when controlling for protected class. It is important to note once
again that terms like “unintentional proxy discrimination” may be subsumed by “disparate impact,” but they are included in this paper to show how various stakeholders use the term differently.
Disparate Impact. Disparate impact is unintentional discrimination, where there is disproportionate impact, but also other legal requirements, such as the existence of alternatives. To date, no disparate impact lawsuits against insurance companies have been won. An example of potential disparate impact (although it was not litigated as a lawsuit) is from health care. Optum used an algorithm to identify and allocate additional care to patients with complex healthcare needs. The algorithm was designed to create a risk score for each patient during the enrollment period. Patients above the 97th percentile were automatically enrolled in the program and thus allocated additional care. Upon an independent peer review of the model, researchers found that the model was in fact allocating artificially lower scores to Black patients, even though the model did not use race. The reason behind this was the model’s use of prior healthcare costs as an input. Black patients typically spend less than white patients on health care, which artificially allocated better health to Black patients.18
Unfair Discrimination and Disproportionate Impact. In this case, an insurer would use a variable that both has no relationship to expected loss, but also has an outsized effect on protected classes. An example of this could be the same red car case above, but where protected classes also owned almost all the red cars. In this case, higher rates would create a disproportionate effect on protected classes, while also having no relationship to expected loss.
Author(s): Kudakwashe F. Chibanda, FCAS
Publication Date: 2022
Publication Site: Casualty Actuarial Society
Excerpt:
General Electric has agreed to end a long-term care insurance reinsurance relationship backed by $2.5 billion in assets.
The Boston-based company said Tuesday that it hopes to get the assets back by the end of the year.
….
For GE, the end of the reinsurance arrangement means that the company will face less worry about whether it can collect on reinsurance claims.
“This reduces counterparty risk,” Happe said.
GE will also have $2.5 billion in extra cash to reinvest.
Author(s): Allison Bell
Publication Date: 26 Oct 2022
Publication Site: Think Advisor
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Tables 2.1 through 2.41 display high-level incidence results for the second quarter of 2020 through the first quarter of 2022 compared to the 2017-2019 baseline period for each combination of (a) incurred/reported basis and (b) count/amount basis as of March 31, 2022. In these tables, the number of COVID-19 claims has not been adjusted for seasonality, but the ratios to baseline have been adjusted for seasonality.
….
Note that additional data reported in April and May 2022 indicated that the 1Q 2022 excess mortality would likely complete downward from the 19.9% shown below using March data. The fully complete 1Q 2022 excess mortality is expected to remain above 15%.
The 24-month period of April 2020 through March 2022 showed the following Group Life mortality results:
• Estimated reported Group Life claim incidence rates were up 20.0% on a seasonally-adjusted basis
compared to 2017–2019 reported claims.
• Estimated incurred Group Life incidence rates were 20.9% higher than baseline on a seasonally-adjusted
basis. As noted above, the incurred incidence rates in February and March 2022 are based on fairly
incomplete data, so they are subject to change and should not be fully relied upon at this point.
Author(s):
Thomas J. Britt, FSA, MAAA
Paul Correia, FSA, MAAA
Patrick Hurley, FSA, MAAA
Mike Krohn, FSA, CERA, MAAA
Tony LaSala, FSA, MAAA
Rick Leavitt, ASA, MAAA
Robert Lumia, FSA, MAAA
Cynthia S. MacDonald, FSA, MAAA, SOA
Patrick Nolan, FSA, MAAA, SOA
Steve Rulis, FSA, MAAA
Bram Spector, FSA, MAAA
Publication Date: August 2022
Publication Site: SOA
Excerpt:
Insurance companies that have long said they’ll cover anything, at the right price, are increasingly ruling out fossil fuel projects because of climate change – to cheers from environmental campaigners.
More than a dozen groups that track what policies insurers have on high-emissions activities say the industry is turning its back on oil, gas and coal.
The alliance, Insure Our Future, said Wednesday that 62% of reinsurance companies – which help other insurers spread their risks – have plans to stop covering coal projects, while 38% are now excluding some oil and natural gas projects. (The Insure Our Future report on re/insurers’ fossil fuel activities can be viewed here).
In part, investors are demanding it. But insurers have also begun to make the link between fossil fuel infrastructure, such as mines and pipelines, and the impact that greenhouse gas emissions are having on other parts of their business.
Publication Date: 20 Oct 2022
Publication Site: Insurance Journal
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Once they’ve acquired a book, firms can turn their attention to driving value. Building on our guidelines for closed-book value creation, owners have six levers that can collectively improve ROE by up to four to seven percentage points (exhibit):
Most PE firms view the first lever, investment performance, as the main way to create value for the insurer, as well as for themselves. This lever will grow in importance if yields and spreads continue to decline. Leading firms typically have deep skills in core investment-management areas, such as strategic asset allocation, asset/liability management, risk management, and reporting, as well as access to leading investment teams that have delivered alpha.
Capital efficiency is also well-trod ground, and for private insurers it presents a greater opportunity given their different treatment under generally accepted accounting principles, (GAAP), enabling them to apply a longer-term lens and reduce the cost of hedging. However, most firms have yet to explore the other levers—operations and IT improvement, technical excellence, commercial uplift, and franchise growth—at scale. Across all these levers, advanced analytics can enable innovative, value-creating approaches.
Author(s): Ramnath Balasubramanian, Alex D’Amico, Rajiv Dattani, and Diego Mattone
Publication Date: 2 February 2022
Publication Site: McKinsey
Link: https://content.naic.org/sites/default/files/capital-markets-special-reports-hy-ye2021_0.pdf
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The U.S. insurance industry’s high-yield bond exposure of almost $300 billion at year-end 2021 is the
highest BACV reported over the last decade. (See Chart 2.) From 2012 to 2021 , high-yield bond
exposure increased approximately 42% while total bond exposure grew approximately 34% as insurance
companies sought higher relative yields offered by high-yield bonds, among other asset classes, amid
the low interest rate environment of the past decade. In addition, most recently, credit quality
deterioration from the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic resulted in some migration of the industry’s
investment grade bond exposure into high-yield territory, particularly in 2020.
On a percentage basis, high-yield exposure accounted for 6% of total bonds at year-end 2021, the
second highest point over the 10 years ending 2021. While exposure declined modestly from 6.1% at
year-end 2020, as a percentage of total bonds, it remains elevated relative to the last 10 years. The most
recent period when U.S. insurers’ high-yield-bond exposure exceeded 6% of total bonds was in 2009
during the financial crisis when it reached 6.3%
Author(s): Michele Wong
Publication Date: 13 Oct 2022
Publication Site: NAIC Capital Markets Special Report
Link: https://www.soa.org/resources/experience-studies/2022/old-age-mortality/
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The Society of Actuaries (SOA) Research Institute released a report that examines older age mortality (OAM) with a focus on attained ages 70 and above. The report helps determine whether refinements were needed in the 2015 Valuation Basic Tables. Analysis was performed by sex, issue age and attained age, issue year cohorts, smoking risk classification, benefit band, select vs ultimate period, and interactions.
Author(s):
Old Age Mortality Subgroup of the Individual Life Experience Committee
Publication Date: October 2022
Publication Site: Society of Actuaries
Link: https://www.soa.org/resources/research-reports/2022/decentralized-ins-alt/
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The DeFi ecosystem has been expanding rapidly in the past few years, growing from less than USD $1 billion in 2020 to USD $61.6 billion as of June 2022 as measured by Total Value Locked (TVL), the amount of crypto asset deposited in the DeFi protocols.
With continuous innovation in product design and delivery, the potential of DeFi adoption is massive. However, the rise of DeFi is marred by security issues. Nearly 200 blockchain hacking incidents have taken place in 2021 with approximately USD $7 billion in stolen funds (Cointelegraph, 2021). These hacking events have a wide range of causes including, but not limited to, the following:
Author(s):
Alvin Kwock
OneDegree
Erik Lie, FSA, CERA
Hailstone Labs
Gwen Weng, FSA, CERA, FCIA
Hailstone Labs
Rex Zhang, ASA
OneDegree
Publication Date: Sept 2022
Publication Site: Society of Actuaries
Link: https://www.genre.com/knowledge/publications/2022/october/rm22-3-en
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The main concern of managers was that their assessors were, like the rest of the population, limited in terms of what they could do to unwind or use to escape due to lockdown restrictions and limited freedom. This contrasted with usual routines.
We asked about the impact of these concerns on the health of claims professionals. Absenteeism within claims teams varied across the companies and while sick leave increased slightly there did not appear to be any significant or concerning trends (Figure 6).
Author(s): Grace Cairns
Publication Date: 9 Oct 2022
Publication Site: Gen Re
Link: https://content.naic.org/sites/default/files/publication-fah-zu-financial-analysis-handbook.pdf
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The risk-focused surveillance framework is designed to provide continuous regulatory oversight. The risk-focused approach requires fully coordinated efforts between the financial examination function and the financial analysis function. There should be a continuous exchange of information between the field examination function and the financial analysis function to ensure that all members of the state insurance department are properly informed of solvency issues related to the state’s domestic insurers.
The regulatory Risk-Focused Surveillance Cycle involves five functions, most of which are performed under the current financial solvency oversight role. The enhancements coordinate all of these functions in a more integrated manner that should be consistently applied by state insurance regulators. The five functions of the risk assessment process are illustrated within the Risk-Focused Surveillance Cycle.
As illustrated in the Risk-Focused Surveillance Cycle diagram, elements from the five identified functions
contribute to the development of an IPS. Each state will maintain an IPS for its domestic companies. State
insurance regulators that wish to review an IPS for a non-domestic company will be able to request the IPS from the domestic or lead state. The documentation contained in the IPS is considered proprietary, confidential information that is not intended to be distributed to individuals other than state insurance regulators.Please note that once the Risk-Focused Surveillance Cycle has begun, any of the inputs to the IPS can be changed at any time to reflect the changing environment of an insurer’s operation and financial condition.
Author(s): NAIC staff
Publication Date: 1 Jan 2022
Publication Site: NAIC