Category: Mortality

Top Causes of Death by Age Group, 2020: Death Rates

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://marypatcampbell.substack.com/p/top-causes-of-death-by-age-group-0bf?justPublished=true

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I present the rates in percentages, as opposed to the more traditional number (which is per 100,000 people per year), because I do not want people to get this confused with the raw counts of people who died. Yes, that does mean there are a lot of small numbers. For children, I even had to extend some out to 4 decimal places to get a significant figure.

In adulthood, natural causes of death tend to increase in rate with increasing age. More below.

External causes (accidents, homicides, and suicide) will have the similar rates over broad ages but drop dramatically in ranking with increasing age — as the natural causes become more likely to occur.

COVID has a similar pattern in mortality as heart disease — indeed, the heart disease death rate is approximately twice that of the COVID death rate for the entire age range from 15 to 85+ on the table.

Author(s): Mary Pat Campbell

Publication Date: 22 Jan 2022

Publication Site: STUMP at substack

The catastrophe of the Covid models

Mary Pat Campbell

Link:https://www.spiked-online.com/2022/01/21/the-catastrophe-of-the-covid-models/

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Having taken all the modelling into account, SAGE produced a table that showed in stark terms what the future held if the government stuck to ‘Plan B’. With the usual risible caveat that ‘these are not forecasts or predictions’, they showed a peak in hospitalisations of between 3,000 and 10,000 per day and a peak in deaths of between 600 and 6,000 a day. In previous waves, without any vaccines, deaths had never exceeded 1,250 a day.

The government was effectively given an ultimatum. SAGE offered Johnson a choice between the disaster that would surely unfold and a ‘Step 1’ or ‘Step 2’ lockdown, both of which had been helpfully modelled to give him a steer. ‘Step 1’ was a full lockdown as implemented last January. ‘Step 2’ allowed limited contact with other households but only outdoors.

In the event, as we all know, Boris Johnson ignored the warnings and declined to implement any new restrictions on liberty. A few days later, Robert West, a nicotine-addiction specialist who is on SAGE for some reason, tweeted: ‘It is now a near certainty that the UK will be seeing a hospitalisation rate that massively exceeds the capacity of the NHS. Many thousands of people have been condemned to death by the Conservative government.’

It did not quite turn out that way. Covid-related hospitalisations in England peaked at 2,370 on 29 December and it looks like the number of deaths will peak well below 300. This is not just less than was projected under ‘Plan B’, it is less than was projected under a ‘Step 2’ lockdown. The modelling for ‘Step 2’ showed a peak of at least 3,000 hospitalisations and 500 deaths a day. SAGE had given itself an enormous margin of error. There is an order of magnitude between 600 deaths a day and 6,000 deaths a day and yet it still managed to miss the mark.

Author(s): Christopher Snowdon

Publication Date: 22 Jan 2022

Publication Site: Spiked Online

Western & Southern acquires Fabric to accelerate digital expansion

Mary Pat Campbell

Link:https://insurance-forums.com/uncategorized/western-southern-acquires-fabric-to-accelerate-digital-expansion/

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Western & Southern Financial Group announced Jan. 12 it has acquired Fabric Technologies and its subsidiary, Fabric Insurance Agency LLC, which provide a digital life insurance platform and mobile app that the companies say is “serving over 60,000 families and has placed billions of dollars in life insurance coverage.”

Terms of the deal were not disclosed. In a statement, W&S said it and Fabric “share a vision of offering the mass market easy-to-use digital solutions to purchase insurance and other financial services.”

…..

Through its secure digital platform and mobile app, Fabric offers affordable term life insurance, a free last will and testament, tools to organize family finances, and—in partnership with other providers—additional solutions such as college savings plans. The life insurance application takes about 10 minutes to complete, with immediate approval for qualified applicants through Fabric’s digital underwriting process.

Accidental death policies and term life insurance policies are issued by Vantis Life Insurance Company, Windsor Conn. (all states except N.Y.). Fabric Insurance Agency LLC is an insurance agency licensed to sell life and accident insurance products.

Publication Date: 12 Jan 2022

Publication Site: Insurance Forums

Why Are More Black Kids Suicidal? A Search for Answers.

Mary Pat Campbell

Link:https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/18/well/mind/suicide-black-kids.html

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A 2018 study found that while the suicide rate of Black children ages 5 to 12 was low, it was nearly twice that of white children in the same age group. In one of the most recent examples, a 10-year-old Black girl with autism died by suicide in Utah in early November. Her parents said she had been subjected to racist bullying by her classmates.

Among teenagers and young adults, suicide rates remain highest among whites, Native Americans and Alaska Natives. But while the suicide rate has recently declined among those groups, it has continued to rise among Black youths. From 2013 to 2019 the suicide rate of Black boys and men ages 15 to 24 rose by 47%, and by 59% for Black girls and women of the same age.

…..

Deaths by suicide are more common among boys than girls overall, but a study published in September found that suicide rates among Black girls increased by an average of 6.6% each year from 2003 to 2017 — more than twice the increase for Black boys. A diagnosis of depression or anxiety was more common among the girls. Additionally, nearly 20% of the girls had engaged in an argument within 24 hours of their deaths.

Author(s): Christina Caron

Publication Date:18 Nov 2021

Publication Site: NYT

New reinsurer “Martello Re” launches with backing of MassMutual, Centerbridge Partners and Brown Brothers Harriman

Mary Pat Campbell

Link:https://www.massmutual.com/about-us/news-and-press-releases/press-releases/2022/01/new-reinsurer-martello-re-launches-with-backing-of-massmutual-centerbridge-partners-and-brown-brothers-harriman

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Martello Re Limited (“Martello Re”), a licensed Class E Bermuda-based life and annuity reinsurance company with initial equity of $1.65 billion, has been launched with the financial support of Massachusetts Mutual Life Insurance Company (“MassMutual”), Centerbridge Partners, Brown Brothers Harriman, and a pre-eminent group of institutional investors and family offices, including Hudson Structured Capital Management Ltd. (doing its re/insurance business as HSCM Bermuda). Barings and Centerbridge will act as asset managers for Martello Re.

Through a commitment to long-term financial strength, creative solutions, and unique investment capabilities, Martello Re plans to offer a differentiated value proposition to its counterparties. The company will initially focus on providing MassMutual and its subsidiaries with reinsurance capacity on current product offerings, after which it will offer its services selectively to other top insurers in the life and annuity space.

MassMutual and its subsidiaries will initially reinsure approximately $14 billion of general account liabilities to Martello Re and also enter into a flow arrangement to reinsure new business. Both transactions are expected to close in February 2022 and have received regulatory approval.

Publication Date: 12 Jan 2022

Publication Site: MassMutual

Nationwide Surge In Deaths Among People Aged 18-49: A State by State Overview

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.theepochtimes.com/mkt_morningbrief/northeast-fares-best-amid-2021-prime-age-mortality-spike_4208797.html

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Deaths among people aged 18 to 49 increased more than 40 percent in the 12 months ending October 2021 compared to the same period in 2018–2019, before the COVID-19 pandemic, according to an analysis of death certificate data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) by The Epoch Times.

The agency doesn’t yet have full 2021 numbers, as death certificate data trickles in with a lag of one to eight weeks or more.

…..

It’s not clear why the mortality spike seemed to exhibit a geographical trend. Overall, a part of the surge could be likely blamed on drug overdoses, which increased to more than 101,000 in the 12 months ending June 2021 from about 72,000 in 2019, the CDC estimated. About two-thirds of those deaths involved synthetic opioids including fentanyl that are often smuggled to the United States from China through Mexico.

For those ages 50 to 84, mortality went up more than 27 percent, representing more than 470,000 excess deaths. Almost four out of five of the deaths had COVID marked on the death certificate as the cause or a contributing factor.

Author(s): Petr Savb

Publication Date: 13 Jan 2022

Publication Site: The Epoch Times

Infection fatality rate of COVID-19 in community-dwelling populations with emphasis on the elderly: An overview

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.08.21260210v2

doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.07.08.21260210

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Objective: This mixed design synthesis aimed to estimate the infection fatality rate (IFR) of
Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in community-dwelling elderly populations and other age
groups from seroprevalence studies. Protocol: https://osf.io/47cgb.


Methods and analyses: Eligible were seroprevalence studies done in 2020 and identified by any of
four existing systematic reviews; with ≥1000 participants aged ≥70 years that presented
seroprevalence in elderly people; that aimed to generate samples reflecting the general population;
and whose location had available data on cumulative COVID-19 deaths in elderly (primary cutoff
≥70 years; ≥65 or ≥60 also eligible). We extracted the most fully adjusted (if unavailable,
unadjusted) seroprevalence estimates. We also extracted age- and residence-stratified cumulative
COVID-19 deaths (until 1 week after the seroprevalence sampling midpoint) from official reports,
and population statistics, to calculate IFRs corrected for unmeasured antibody types. Sample sizeweighted IFRs were estimated for countries with multiple estimates. Secondary analyses examined
data on younger age strata from the same studies.


Results: Twenty-five seroprevalence surveys representing 14 countries were included. Across all
countries, the median IFR in community-dwelling elderly and elderly overall was 2.9% (range 0.2%-
6.9%) and 4.9% (range 0.2%-16.8%) without accounting for seroreversion (2.4% and 4.0%,
respectively, accounting for 5% monthly seroreversion). Multiple sensitivity analyses yielded similar
results. IFR was higher with larger proportions of people >85 years. Younger age strata had low IFR
values (median 0.0013%, 0.0088%, 0.021%, 0.042%, 0.14%, and 0.65%, at 0-19, 20-29, 30-39, 40-
49, 50-59, and 60-69 years even without accounting for seroreversion).

Author(s):Cathrine Axfors, John P A Ioannidis

Publication Date: 23 Dec 2021, accessed 17 Jan 2022

Publication Site: medrXiV

Mortality Nuggets: Videos on Death Numbers, Ranking Table for States’ Mortality for 2020

Mary Pat Campbell

Link:https://marypatcampbell.substack.com/p/mortality-nuggets-videos-on-death

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The ranking tables do reflect where COVID hit hard in 2020 — the spring 2020 wave in the northeast, and the summer 2020 wave along the south and southwest (Texas, in particular). No, Florida didn’t show its big COVID impact until January 2021, so it’s pretty far down on this ranking table.

This way, we can see if there are any geographic patterns. We did know the hot spots of NY, NJ, IL (mainly around Chicago), DC, TX, Louisiana (around New Orleans), Arizona. I had not been aware of Mississippi being so bad, but maybe that was spillover from New Orleans.

Author(s): Mary Pat Campbell

Publication Date: 15 Jan 2022

Publication Site: STUMP at substack

Opioids and the Unattached Male

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.city-journal.org/opioids-and-the-unattached-male

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From 2010 to 2019, the drug-related death rate among never-married prime-age white men increased some 125 percent: from 52 deaths per 100,000 to 117 (including 2020 would show an even steeper rise, but the pandemic affected Census data collection). If single and divorced prime-age white men had seen opioid deaths rise by only the same rate as those deaths rose among their married counterparts, the U.S. would have seen 38,800 fewer deaths from drug-related causes over the past decade just among this demographic group.

A marriage certificate is no prophylactic against the scourge of drug overdoses, of course. Marital status is correlated with income, race, and age; while death certificates don’t report income, we know that married decedents are more likely to be white, older, and better-educated. Controlling for those factors still shows single men to be at greater risk of dying from drug-related causes than married ones.

Author(s): Patrick T. Brown

Publication Date: 14 Jan 2022

Publication Site: City Journal

Report: Number of Michigan Nursing Home Deaths 42 Percent Larger Than Whitmer Disclosed

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://freebeacon.com/democrats/report-number-of-michigan-nursing-home-deaths-42-percent-larger-than-whitmer-disclosed/

Excerpt:

The number of COVID-19 deaths in Michigan nursing homes is 42 percent larger than Democratic governor Gretchen Whitmer’s administration disclosed, according to a state auditor general’s report reviewed by the Washington Free Beacon.

The report, which Auditor General Doug Ringler is set to release in full next week, shows 8,061 COVID-19 deaths in the state’s long-term care facilities from Jan. 1, 2020, to July 2, 2021. That number is 42 percent larger than the 5,675 deaths Whitmer’s health department reported.

Author(s): Collin Anderson

Publication Date: 13 Jan 2022

Publication Site: Washington Free Beacon

Top Causes of Death by Age Group, 2020: Raw Numbers

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://marypatcampbell.substack.com/p/top-causes-of-death-by-age-group

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The numbers below each cause are the total number of finalized deaths in CDC Wonder as of 11 January 2022 for the completed calendar year 2020.

COVID deaths for under age 15 weren’t in the top 10 causes for those age groups, which is why they aren’t seen in the table. But you may be interested in those numbers:
at #12 for ages 5-14, with 49 deaths
at #12 for ages 1-4, with 19 deaths
at #13 for infant mortality (<1 year), at 35 deaths

In general, other than the new cause of COVID, most of the causes of death were in the same rank order as in 2019, with a few switches for causes that tend to be close in numbers.

Author(s): Mary Pat Campbell

Publication Date: 12 Jan 2022

Publication Site: STUMP at substack

To Fight Covid, We Need to Think Less Like Doctors

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/14/opinion/covid-america.html

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If we’re trying to prevent Covid surges and end the pandemic, then we need to center the population in our thinking. Health authorities need to get tools like rapid tests and better masks to as many people as possible, especially those who are more likely to spread disease, even if they’re at low risk themselves. People need to be persuaded or incentivized to vaccinate to protect others.

If you are sick, even with severe Covid, you want someone with a doctor’s viewpoint caring for you. America, however, is not a patient. And we’d all be better off, as a society and as individuals, if those in control of our country’s health stopped thinking of it that way.

Author(s): Aaron E. Carroll

Publication Date: 14 Jan 2022

Publication Site: NYT