Category: Mortality

Years of life lost to COVID-19 in 81 countries

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-83040-3

Graphic:

Abstract:

Understanding the mortality impact of COVID-19 requires not only counting the dead, but analyzing how premature the deaths are. We calculate years of life lost (YLL) across 81 countries due to COVID-19 attributable deaths, and also conduct an analysis based on estimated excess deaths. We find that over 20.5 million years of life have been lost to COVID-19 globally. As of January 6, 2021, YLL in heavily affected countries are 2–9 times the average seasonal influenza; three quarters of the YLL result from deaths in ages below 75 and almost a third from deaths below 55; and men have lost 45% more life years than women. The results confirm the large mortality impact of COVID-19 among the elderly. They also call for heightened awareness in devising policies that protect vulnerable demographics losing the largest number of life-years.

Author(s): Héctor Pifarré i Arolas, Enrique Acosta, Guillem López-Casasnovas, Adeline Lo, Catia Nicodemo, Tim Riffe & Mikko Myrskylä

Publication Date: 18 Feb 2021

Publication Site: nature scientific reports

Life expectancy assumptions could fall by 6 months if CMI proposals adopted

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.lcp.uk.com/media-centre/2023/02/life-expectancy-assumptions-could-fall-by-6-months-if-cmi-proposals-adopted/

Excerpt:

The CMI has issued its consultation to help shape the next version of its mortality projection model, which is used by the majority of pension scheme trustees and sponsors in setting their funding and accounting assumptions. The consultation focuses on how to respond to the very high mortality rates seen in England & Wales over 2022, to which the model is calibrated. 

The CMI believe mortality in 2022 may be indicative of future mortality to some extent, unlike the exceptional mortality seen in 2020 and 2021 during the peak of the pandemic.  

The key proposal is to give 25% weight to the 2022 mortality data. In the coming years, the CMI plan to steadily increase the weight on mortality data until around 2025, by which time it expects a clearer indication of mortality trends of the future. The CMI also intend to update the model to use the latest population estimates based on the 2021 Census. 

Both of these changes reduce projected life expectancy relative to previous versions of the model. 

Chris Tavener, Partner and Head of Life Analytics commented: “If these proposals go ahead then life expectancy assumptions at age 65 are likely to fall by around 6 months, equivalent to 2%, when adopting the new core model, all else being equal. This is a larger fall in life expectancies compared to recent model updates, but we share the concern expressed by the CMI that higher death rates seen in the latter part of 2022, and continuing into January, may be indicative of future mortality. 

“We are seeing an increasing number of pension scheme trustees and sponsors look to us to understand how  their own members are likely to be affected by the various factors driving recent higher death rates, such as the ramifications of the pandemic and pressures on the healthcare system, which in our view will affect some groups more than others.” 

Publication Date: 1 Feb 2023

Publication Site: Lane Clark & Peacock

Why Two States Remain Holdouts on Distracted Driving Laws

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://khn.org/news/article/distracted-driving-state-laws-two-holdouts-missouri-montana/

Graphic:

Excerpt:

Despite such tragedies, Missouri is one of two states — the other is Montana — that do not prohibit all drivers from text messaging while operating vehicles. (Missouri has such a law for people 21 and under.)

Before this year, Missouri state lawmakers from both parties had proposed more than 80 bills since 2010 with varying levels of restrictions on cellphone use and driving. Similar legislation has been proposed in Montana, too. In both states, such bills have faltered, largely because Republican opponents say they don’t think the laws work and are just another infringement on people’s civil liberties.

Nevertheless, Missouri Republicans and Democrats introduced at least seven bills this session concerning hand-held phone use while driving — and road safety advocates think such legislation has a better chance of passing this year. Montana, meanwhile, has a bill seeking to block localities’ distracted driving laws.

….

Supporters of hands-free driving laws concede that distracted driving restrictions are not a panacea for all traffic fatalities. And even if Missouri passes additional restrictions on cellphone use, small nuances in wording could influence whether such a law is effective.

Nationwide, about 3,000 people typically die in distracted driving crashes each year, according to National Highway Traffic Safety Administration data, though researchers suggest that’s an undercount. While hands-free options are now standard for new vehicles, the number of distracted driving deaths has stayed relatively steady. They represented at least 1 in 12 traffic fatalities in 2020.

Distracted driving laws reduce fatalities — if, like the ones established in 24 states, they ban all hand-held cellphone use rather than banning only a specific activity such as texting, according to the Governors Highway Safety Association and a study published in 2021 in the journal Epidemiology. Banning texting alone does not make a difference, those researchers found.

Oregon and Washington saw significant reductions in the rates of monthly rear-end crashes when they broadened their laws to prohibit “holding” a cellphone as compared with states that banned only texting, according to a study from the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety. Those two states also prohibited holding a phone when stopped temporarily — say, at a red light.

Author(s): Eric Berger

Publication Date: 6 Feb 2023

Publication Site: Kaiser Health News

Total 2022 U.S. Deaths Up About 15% Over Pre-Pandemic Level

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.thinkadvisor.com/2023/01/24/total-2022-u-s-deaths-up-about-15-over-pre-pandemic-level/

Excerpt:

U.S. public health agencies recorded a total of about 3.2 million deaths in 2022, according to full-year mortality figures from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

The total number of deaths was down 7% from the preliminary total for 2021 that the CDC reported a year earlier, but it was 15% higher than the preliminary, full-year average — about 2.8 million per year — for the period from 2015 through 2019, before the COVID-19 pandemic began.

Author(s): Allison Bell

Publication Date: 24 Jan 2023

Publication Site: ThinkAdvisor

Traffic Safety Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Fatal Crashes Relative to Pre-Pandemic Trends, United States, May–December 2020

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://aaafoundation.org/traffic-safety-impact-of-the-covid-19-pandemic-fatal-crashes-relative-to-pre-pandemic-trends-united-states-may-december-2020/

PDF: https://aaafoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/22-1339-AAAFTS_Impact-of-COVID-19_Research-Brief_r3.pdf

Graphic:

Excerpt:

A total of 38,824 people died in motor vehicle crashes in the U.S. in 2020, 2,570 (7.1%) more than forecast from models developed using data from 2011 through 2019 (Figure). In April 2020—the first full month of the pandemic—the number of fatalities was much lower than what would have been expected based on pre-pandemic trends. By May 2020, however, the actual number of fatalities was similar to historical levels. The number of fatalities greatly exceeded forecasts based on pre-pandemic trends for the remainder of 2020. In May through December collectively, there were a total of 28,611 traffic fatalities nationwide, which was 3,083 (12.1%) more than expected based on pre-pandemic trends.

The increase in traffic fatalities was not uniform across crash-, vehicle-, and driver-related factors. Scenarios present in greater than expected numbers in fatal crashes in 2020 included evening and late-night hours, speeding drivers, drivers with illegal alcohol levels, drivers without valid licenses, drivers of older vehicles, drivers of vehicles registered to other people, crash involvement and deaths of teens and young adults, and deaths of vehicle occupants not wearing seatbelts. In contrast, several crash types followed pre-pandemic trends (e.g., crashes in the middle of the day; crash involvements of drivers with valid licenses; pedestrian fatalities), and a few decreased (e.g., crashes of elderly drivers; crashes during typical morning commute hours).

Author(s): Brian C. Tefft, Meng Wang

Publication Date: December 2022

Publication Site: AAA Foundation

Under Government Pressure, Twitter Suppressed Truthful Speech About COVID-19

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://reason.com/2023/01/02/under-government-pressure-twitter-suppressed-truthful-speech-about-covid-19/?utm_medium=email

Excerpt:

Twitter’s ban on “COVID-19 misinformation,” which Elon Musk rescinded after taking over the platform in late October, mirrored the Biden administration’s broad definition of that category in two important respects: It disfavored perspectives that dissented from official advice, and it encompassed not just demonstrably false statements but also speech that was deemed “misleading” even when it was arguably or verifiably true. In a recent Free Press article, science writer David Zweig shows what that meant in practice, citing several striking examples of government-encouraged speech suppression gleaned from the internal communications that Musk has been disclosing to handpicked journalists.

Twitter’s moderation of pandemic-related content was intertwined with government policy from the beginning. Even before Joe Biden was elected president and his administration began publicly and privately demanding that social media companies suppress speech it viewed as a threat to public health, the company’s guidelines deferred to the positions taken by government agencies such as the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). And those rules explicitly covered “misleading information” as well as “demonstrably false” statements.

….

That July, Twitter sought to clarify “our rules against potentially misleading information about COVID-19″ (emphasis added). “For a Tweet to qualify as a misleading claim,” the company said, “it must be an assertion of fact (not an opinion), expressed definitively, and intended to influence others’ behavior.” Possible topics included “the origin, nature, and characteristics of the virus”; “preventative measures, treatments/cures, and other precautions”; “the prevalence of viral spread, or the current state of the crisis”; and “official health advisories, restrictions, regulations, and public-service announcements.”

That was a very wide net, potentially encompassing anyone who questioned the CDC’s ever-shifting guidance or criticized government policies, such as lockdowns and mask mandates, aimed at reducing virus transmission. While the intent requirement ostensibly allowed dissent as long as it was not aimed at influencing behavior, that limitation did not mean much in practice, since moderators were apt to infer the requisite intent when they encountered tweets that implicitly or explicitly deviated from the recommendations of “public health authorities and governments.”

….

Another example that Zweig cites: Last August, @KelleyKga, a self-described “public health fact checker,” responded to another Twitter user’s claim that “COVID has been the leading cause of death from disease in children” since December 2021. “What an excellent example of cherry picking!” @KelleyKga wrote. “If you narrow it down to only the specific months you specify, which include the largest Covid wave (seen across the world), AND you ignore all non-disease deaths, AND you ignore cancer, heart disease, SIDS, then COVID is ‘leading.'”

Author(s): Jacob Sullum

Publication Date: 2 Jan 2023

Publication Site: Reason

23 Tidbits About the Human Operating System

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/23-tidbits-human-operating-system-nate-worrell/

Graphic:

Excerpt:

1- We Aren’t Totally Human – Almost half of the cells in our body don’t come from us. We have a universe of microorganisms, each of which brings their own DNA into the mix. From a BBC report:

“The human genome – the full set of genetic instructions for a human being – is made up of 20,000 instructions called genes.

But add all the genes in our microbiome together and the figure comes out between two and 20 million microbial genes.

Prof Sarkis Mazmanian, a microbiologist from Caltech, argues: “We don’t have just one genome, the genes of our microbiome present essentially a second genome which augment the activity of our own.

“What makes us human is, in my opinion, the combination of our own DNA, plus the DNA of our gut microbes.”

2- We share DNA with Bananas and Copied Viral DNA: Our closest genetic relative is the chimp, but we are connected to dogs and cats and even fruit flies and yes, bananas.

Author(s): Nate Worrell

Publication Date: 1 Jan 2023

Publication Site: Longevity Assistant at LinkedIn

Philadelphia surpasses 500 homicides as gun violence crisis continues

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/restoring-america/fairness-justice/philadelphia-homicides-gun-violence-crisis

Graphic:

Excerpt:

Philadelphia has recorded more than 500 homicides this year as the city’s gun violence crisis continues to rise dramatically.

The city has only ever recorded this large loss of human life twice in its history, matching the record of 500 deaths during the crack cocaine epidemic in 1990.

Since Tuesday, the total has risen to 502, a 7% reduction from 2021, per the city’s dashboard .

The total in 2022 only pales slightly in comparison to last year’s record-breaking total. In 2021, Philadelphia recorded 562 homicides, with 501 of the deaths due to gun violence alone, per Axios.

Homicide victims in Philadelphia for 2022 spanned across all ages, from as young as 9 to as old as 78. The 500th homicide was a man, 35, shot in the city’s Ogontz section on Sunday afternoon, and he died hours later from his injuries, police confirmed to multiple outlets.

The demographics surrounding the homicides reflect the extent to which gun violence plagues the city. Of the 500 homicides, 30 victims were juveniles, with seven being 14 years old or younger. According to police, 84% of people killed or injured in shootings this year were black.

Author(s): Rachel Schilke

Publication Date: 21 Dec 2022

Publication Site: Washington Examiner

The Official Who Investigates Suspicious Deaths in Your Town May Be a Doctor — Or Not

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://khn.org/news/article/coroners-medical-examiners-doctor-or-not-death-investigations/

Excerpt:

When a group of physicians gathered in Washington state for an annual meeting, one made a startling revelation: If you ever want to know when, how — and where — to kill someone, I can tell you, and you’ll get away with it. No problem.

That’s because the expertise and availability of coroners, who determine cause of death in criminal and unexplained cases, vary widely across Washington, as they do in many other parts of the country.

….

Each state has its own laws governing the investigation of violent and unexplained deaths, and most delegate the task to cities, counties, and regional districts. The job can be held by an elected coroner as young as 18 or a highly trained physician appointed as medical examiner. Some death investigators work for elected sheriffs who try to avoid controversy or owe political favors. Others own funeral homes and direct bodies to their private businesses.

Overall, it’s a disjointed and chronically underfunded system — with more than 2,000 offices across the country that determine the cause of death in about 600,000 cases a year.

…..

Belcher’s crusade succeeded in changing some aspects of Washington’s coroner system when state lawmakers approved a new law last year, but efforts to reform death investigations in California, Georgia, and Illinois have recently failed.

Rulings on causes of death are often not cut-and-dried and can be controversial, especially in police-involved deaths such as the 2020 killing of George Floyd. In that case, Minnesota’s Hennepin County medical examiner ruled Floyd’s death a homicide but indicated a heart condition and the presence of fentanyl in his system may have been factors. Pathologists hired by Floyd’s family said he died from lack of oxygen when a police officer kneeled on his neck and back.

….

In 2009, the National Research Council recommended that states replace coroners with medical examiners, describing a system “in need of significant improvement.”

Massachusetts was the first state to replace coroners with medical examiners statewide in 1877. As of 2019, 22 states and the District of Columbia had only medical examiners, 14 states had only coroners, and 14 had a mix, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Author(s): Samantha Young

Publication Date: 20 Dec 2022

Publication Site: Kaiser Health News

Death of an Elder Raises Uncomfortable Questions About Adequacy of Care

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2022/12/death-of-an-elder-raises-uncomfortable-questions-about-adequacy-of-care.html

Excerpt:

Yves here. I’ve taken the liberty of changing the title of this Kaiser Health New from A Family Death During the Holidays Prompts Questions and Reflection. The piece pulls its punches, perhaps because the health care journalist author Judith Graham, who regularly writes about aging, is hesitant to come off as an advocate and/or potentially alienate future sources. But you can see she is clearly not happy with the caliber of care her father-in-law received in his final days.

I’ve heard similar stories from readers and I saw it first hand with my mother, who like Graham’s father died at 94. I would be curious if practices are better or worse with the moderately and very old in other countries, particularly in Asia. The two times my mother was hospitalized in her final year, the care was horrid. And it wasn’t as if the staff was overburdened due to Covid. My mother’s aides would call for help, and after >10 minutes of getting no answer, would then go to the nurses’ station to find them doing their nails and watching TV. They also failed to keep her well hydrated and bruised her horribly.

….

But more broadly, an anti-aged attitude was evident. No one seemed willing to work that hard to save an old woman, or even help her have a more dignified death, particularly since she didn’t look that swell. Thanks to Covid, her hair and nails hadn’t been done for over a year and she came to the hospital in flannel pajamas. Notice the photos of the father in law below. Despite the upscale sweater, watch and glass frames, I suspect his very aged skin was held against him.

BTW, according to the Social Security life expectancy table, an average women my mother’s age typically would have lived another 3.8 years. So to hell with the bigots on staff.

And this sorry picture is set to get worse with Covid, with repeat infections reducing health baselines generally and resulting in more demands on doctors, nurses and hospitals that have no ability to increase capacity in less than many years. A sicker population will also produce more prejudice against older patients, even if they are robust and have managed to stay Covid-free.

Author(s): Yves Smith, Judith Graham

Publication Date: 9 December 2022

Publication Site: naked capitalism

2022 Mortality Improvement Survey Report

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.soa.org/resources/research-reports/2022/mort-improve-survey/

Report PDF: https://www.soa.org/4ad811/globalassets/assets/files/resources/research-report/2022/mort-improve-survey.pdf

Graphic:

Excerpt:

The Committee on Life Insurance Mortality and Underwriting Surveys of the Society of Actuaries sent
companies a survey in May of 2019 on mortality improvement practices as of year-end 2018. The survey
results were released in January 2022. The survey was completed by respondents prior to the onset of
COVID-19. The present report provides an opportunity to update the results for pandemic-based changes
and compare the before and after surveys.
The 2022 survey was opened in March 2022 and closed by the end of April. Thirty-five respondent
companies participated in this survey, with 29 from the U.S. and six from Canada. This group was further
divided between direct writers (26) and reinsurers (nine).
This survey focused on the use of mortality improvement and how it has changed for financial projection
and pricing modeling following the initial stages of COVID-19. Details regarding assumptions and opinions
on mortality improvement in general were asked of the respondents.
National Association of Insurance Commissioners discussions on mortality improvement factors due to
COVID-19 for reserving purposes have taken place, but this survey was conducted before any adjustments
reacting to them.
Seventy-four percent (26 of 35) of respondents indicated using durational mortality improvement
assumptions in their life and annuity pricing and/or financial projections. Moreover, of those that used
durational mortality improvement assumptions, attained age and gender were the top two characteristics
in which assumptions varied.
Respondents were asked to indicate the different limitations when applying durational mortality
improvement assumptions. The Survey found that the most common lowest and highest attained age to
which durational mortality improvement was applied were 0 and about 100, respectively. The lowest and
highest durational mortality improvement rate ranged from -1.50% (deterioration) to 2.80%
(improvement). The time period in which the mortality improvement rates were applied ranged from 10 to
120 years, but this varied between life (10/120) and annuities (30/120). The most common time period was
20 to 30 years for life; less consensus was seen for annuities. Analysis is provided in Appendix C for
instances when highlights are shared in the body of the report.

Author(s): Ronora Stryker, Max Rudolph

Publication Date: December 2022

Publication Site: SOA Research Institute

Why Do Vaccinated People Represent Most COVID-19 Deaths Right Now?

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.kff.org/policy-watch/why-do-vaccinated-people-represent-most-covid-19-deaths-right-now/

Graphic:

Excerpt:

The waning protection from vaccines is why CDC recommends recent booster shots, and why it’s especially important for people at higher risk to stay up-to-date on boosters. Per current recommendations, most adults should have received at least 2-3 booster doses by now (including the new bivalent booster), in addition to their primary series. However, only 14% of adults overall and 31% of older adults (65 years and older) have received the latest bivalent boosters. The CDC data show that about 95% of adults who died from COVID-19 in 2022 in these jurisdictions were over age 50, and about 8 in 10 were age 65 or older, underscoring the need for older adults to stay up-to-date on recommended booster shots.

The fall in the share of deaths that are among unvaccinated people could also be explained by changes in the unvaccinated population. By this far into the pandemic, it is estimated that many unvaccinated people have had COVID-19 at least once and while hundreds of thousands of unvaccinated people have needlessly died from COVID, those who survived may have gained some immune protection against the virus that can help protect them against severe outcomes when they have subsequent infections. However, this protection from a past infection can also diminish over time, which is why it is still recommended that unvaccinated people with prior COVID-19 infections get vaccinated and stay up-to-date on boosters.

Author(s): Cynthia Cox Follow @cynthiaccox on Twitter , Krutika Amin Follow @KrutikaAmin on Twitter , Jennifer Kates Follow @jenkatesdc on Twitter , and Josh Michaud Follow @joshmich on Twitter

Publication Date: 30 Nov 2022

Publication Site: KFF