Category: Public Finance

Cigarette Taxes and Cigarette Smuggling by State, 2020

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://taxfoundation.org/cigarette-taxes-cigarette-smuggling-2022/

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Excerpt:

Key Findings:

  • Excessive tax rates on cigarettes induce substantial black and gray market movement of tobacco products into high-tax states from low-tax states or foreign sources.
  • New York has the highest inbound smuggling activity, with an estimated 53.5 percent of cigarettes consumed in the state deriving from smuggled sources in 2020. New York is followed by California (44.8 percent), New Mexico (45.5 percent), Washington (41.5 percent), and Minnesota (34.8 percent).
  • New Hampshire has the highest level of net outbound smuggling at 52.4 percent of consumption, likely due to its relatively low tax rates and proximity to high-tax states in the northeastern United States. Following New Hampshire is Indiana (35.6 percent), Virginia (27.6 percent), Idaho (25.8 percent), Wyoming (24.4 percent), and North Dakota (18.6 percent).
  • Illinois and New Mexico significantly increased their cigarette tax rate from 2019 to 2020. Both states saw major increases in cigarette smuggling.
  • Policymakers interested in increasing tax rates should recognize the unintended consequences of high taxation rates. Criminal distribution networks are well-established and illicit trade will grow as tax rates rise.

Author(s): Adam Hoffer

Publication Date: 6 Dec 2022

Publication Site: Tax Foundation

Reality check: New actuarial report says Illinois’ biggest pension, TRS, sunk $6 billion further into the hole in FY 2022 – Wirepoints Quickpoint

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://wirepoints.org/reality-check-new-actuarial-report-says-illinois-biggest-pension-trs-sunk-6-billion-further-into-the-hole-in-fy-2022-wirepoints-quickpoint/

Excerpt:

The first actuarial report is out for an Illinois pension for fiscal year 2022, which ended on June 30. It’s for the TRS, the Teachers Retirement System, which accounts for well over half of Illinois state-level pension debt.

Unfunded liabilities grew about $6 billion from $74.7 billion to $80.7 billion on a fair asset value basis. Its funded ratio worsened from 46.2% to 43.8%. The drop occurred despite a one-time, special contribution by taxpayers to the fund of $173 million that was in addition to their annual, scheduled contributions.

Expect Illinois’ other pensions to suffer similarly dismal results as their 2022 reports are published.

Author(s): Mark Glennon

Publication Date: 7 Dec 2022

Publication Site: Wirepoints

BlackRock’s Red-State Woes Continue as Florida Divests

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.ai-cio.com/news/blackrocks-red-state-woes-continue-as-florida-divests/

Excerpt:

State Chief Financial Officer Jimmy Patronis announced Thursday that the Florida Treasury will begin divesting $2 billion worth of assets currently under management by BlackRock.

BlackRock managed $1.43 billion of Florida’s long duration portfolio, which includes investments such as corporate bonds, asset-backed securities and municipal bonds. Additionally, BlackRock managed $600 million of Florida funds in a short-term treasury fund, which invests in short-term and overnight investments.

Patronis cited efforts by BlackRock and its CEO, Larry Fink, to embrace environmental, social and governance investment principles as the reason Florida will pull the funds from the manager.. In the wake of the announcement, the state will freeze the $1.43 billion in long-term securities at its custodial bank.

….

“It’s my responsibility to get the best returns possible for taxpayers,” Patronis said in the statement. “The more effective we are in investing dollars to generate a return, the more effective we’ll be in funding priorities like schools, hospitals and roads. As major banking institutions and economists predict a recession in the coming year, and as the Fed increases interest rates to combat the inflation crisis, I need partners within the financial services industry who are as committed to the bottom line as we are – and I don’t trust BlackRock’s ability to deliver. As Larry Fink stated to CEOs, ‘Access to capital is not a right. It is a privilege.’ As Florida’s CFO, I agree wholeheartedly, so we’ll be taking Larry up on his offer.”

Author(s): Dusty Hagedorn

Publication Date: 2 December 2022

Publication Site: ai-CIO

Office of the Chief Actuary’s Estimates of Proposals to Change the Social Security Program or the SSI Program

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.ssa.gov/oact/solvency/index.html

Excerpt:

The last 11 Trustees Reports have indicated that Social Security’s Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance (OASDI) Trust Fund reserves would become depleted between 2033 and 2035 under the intermediate set of assumptions provided in each report. If no legislative change is enacted, scheduled tax revenues will be sufficient to pay only about three-fourths of the scheduled benefits after trust fund depletion. Policymakers have developed proposals and options that have financial effects on the OASDI Trust Funds. Many of these proposals and options have the intent of addressing the long-range solvency problem.

The Office of the Chief Actuary also develops estimates of proposals to change the Supplemental Security Income (SSI) program.

We have prepared letters or memoranda for many of these proposals and options. Each letter or memorandum provides an actuarial analysis showing the estimated effect on the financial status of the Social Security program and/or the SSI program.

Publication Date: accessed 4 Dec 2022

Publication Site: Office of the Chief Actuary, Social Security Administration

Adjustments in City’s pension plan may take six or more years

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://richmondfreepress.com/news/2022/nov/10/adjustments-citys-pension-plan-may-take-six-or-mor/

Excerpt:

City Hall’s 4,200 retirees likely may wait years before seeing another cost-of-living adjustment in their pensions.

In a report to City Council on Monday, Leo Griffin, director of the Richmond Retirement System, projected that 2029 may be the earliest that cost-of-living adjustments are considered for enrollees in the defined benefit pension plan. The defined benefit plan provides a guaranteed pension that depends on the salary earned.

Mr. Griffin’s report suggested the city would be better off waiting until 2033 to consider pension improvements. That is when the system is projected to be fully funded and the city’s yearly

contribution for the pension plan is projected to plummet 81 percent from around $55 million a year to $10 million a year.

Mr. Griffin’s projections assume that the system achieves an average annual 7 percent return on investments.

If that level of return is received, his report indicates that the system would cross the 80 percent threshold of funding in six years – the funding threshold the retirement system has set before any cost-of-living adjustment could be considered.

Author(s): Jeremy M. Lazarus

Publication Date: 10 Nov 2022

Publication Site: Richmond Free Press

Backlash Against ESG Investment Of Taxpayer Money Grows, But Illinois And Chicago Carry On – Wirepoints

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://wirepoints.org/backlash-against-esg-investment-of-taxpayer-money-grows-but-illinois-and-chicago-carry-on-wirepoints/

Excerpt:

But those scorned sectors have been the better investments this year, and tech companies have been hammered. Only 31% of actively managed ESG equity funds beat their benchmarks in the first half of 2022, compared to 41% of conventional funds, according to Refinitiv Lipper, as Reuters recently reported. So far this year, 19 of the 20 best-performing companies in the S&P 500 are either fossil-fuel producers or otherwise connected with fossil fuels.

Consequently, ESG funds “have been hit by unprecedented outflows in the market downturn, as investors prioritize capital preservation over goals such as tackling climate change,” wrote Reuters.

Predictably, the issue has become political since state and local officials invest trillions of dollars owned by taxpayers. Republican candidates generally oppose ESG investment of public funds, and five positions — in Kansas, Iowa, Missouri, Nevada and Wisconsin — flipped from Democratic to Republican in recent races for state auditor, controller or treasurer. Of the 50 directly elected positions, Republicans won 29 and Democrats won 19, according to a recent Roll Call report.

Illinois Treasurer Michael Frerichs, however, is among the Democratic officials not backing off on ESG. “We are in it for the long term” is the title of an open letter he recently signed along with 13 other Democratic state financial officers criticizing efforts to stop ESG use of taxpayer money. The letter is astonishingly hypocritical. It says those who want to ban ESG investment of public money are “blacklisting financial firms that don’t agree with their political views.” That, of course, is precisely what ESG does.

Author(s): Mark Glennon

Publication Date:19 Nov 2022

Publication Site: Wirepoints

Upgrade will help Chicago navigate a thornier bond market

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://fixedincome.fidelity.com/ftgw/fi/FINewsArticle?id=202210251432SM______BNDBUYER_00000184-0fdf-d34d-a3d7-5fff818a0000_110.1&utm_source=Wirepoints+Newsletter&utm_campaign=845146e7cd-RSS_EMAIL_CAMPAIGN&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_895ee9abf9-845146e7cd-30506353#new_tab

Excerpt:

Last week’s Fitch Ratings upgrade of Chicago offers dual benefits for Mayor Lori Lightfoot’s administration as it pursues passage of a proposed 2023 budget and preps a general obligation issue.

Fitch’s Friday upgrade to BBB from BBB-minus, the city’s first from Fitch in 12 years, and the potential for more good rating news could help sell the City Council on supplemental pension contributions and other pieces of the budget plan viewed favorably by analysts.

The Fitch action and an overall rosier view of the city’s fiscal condition should also broaden the investor appeal of an upcoming $757 million general obligation issue in a more fickle and tumultuous market than prevailed in the city’s last GO offering in late 2021.

Author(s): Yvette Shields

Publication Date: 25 Oct 2022

Publication Site: Fidelity Fixed Income

The EU’s Windfall Profits Tax: How “Tax Fairness” Got in the Way of Energy Security

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://taxfoundation.org/windfall-profits-tax-eu-energy-security/

Excerpt:

On 30 September, the Council of the European Union agreed to impose an EU-wide windfall profits tax on fossil fuel companies to fund relief for households and businesses facing high energy prices (due primarily to Putin’s war on Ukraine).

Given the dire economic environment for families and the urgency to transition away from Russian energy, extracting profits from fossil fuel companies to transfer to needy households sounds like killing two birds with one stone. It might even sound fair in a year when oil companies are making record profits because of higher energy prices. 

Unfortunately, it’s not sound policy. If history is any indicator, it will only make these goals harder to achieve.

The tax (or “Solidarity Contribution” in EU-speak) is calculated on taxable profits starting in 2022 and/or 2023, depending on national tax rules, that are above a 20 percent increase of the average yearly taxable profits since 2018. The EU anticipates the policy will raise about €140 billion.

Author(s): Sean Bray

Publication Date: 4 Oct 2022

Publication Site: Tax Foundation

2023 Tax Brackets

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://taxfoundation.org/2023-tax-brackets/

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Excerpt:

On a yearly basis the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) adjusts more than 60 tax provisions for inflation to prevent what is called “bracket creep.” Bracket creep occurs when people are pushed into higher income tax brackets or have reduced value from credits and deductions due to inflation, instead of any increase in real income.

The IRS used to use the Consumer Price Index (CPI) as a measure of inflation prior to 2018. However, with the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 (TCJA), the IRS now uses the Chained Consumer Price Index (C-CPI) to adjust income thresholds, deduction amounts, and credit values accordingly.

The new inflation adjustments are for tax year 2023, for which taxpayers will file tax returns in early 2024. Note that the Tax Foundation is a 501(c)(3) educational nonprofit and cannot answer specific questions about your tax situation or assist in the tax filing process.

Author(s): Alex Durante

Publication Date: 18 Oct 2022

Publication Site: Tax Foundation

Social Security Politics

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://marypatcampbell.substack.com/p/social-security-politics#details

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Excerpt:

2022 OASDI Trustees Report, plus spreadsheets, etc. https://www.ssa.gov/OACT/TR/2022/

I am graphing the net change in the OASI (that’s the old age benefit part) Trust Fund, year-over-year.

I think you can easily see all those glorious years the Boomer payroll taxes were being stuffed into the Trust Fund… but really flowing right out into current spending for other goodies.

And you can see when that reversed and is now negative, and will continue to be negative until the Trust Fund is exhausted, in the early 2030s.

Author(s): Mary Pat Campbell

Publication Date: 7 Nov 2022

Publication Site: STUMP at substack

Candidates discuss Illinois’ unfunded pension debt

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.thecentersquare.com/illinois/gubernatorial-candidates-discuss-plans-to-shore-up-illinois-unfunded-pension-debt/article_d4ee1dcc-5acc-11ed-ba1f-5f5508ee672f.html

Excerpt:

Candidates for Illinois governor are taking different approaches on how they’d tackle the state’s unfunded pension liabilities.

Illinois has among the most unfunded public sector employee pension liability. State numbers indicate around $151 billion unfunded, but some place like the American Legislative Exchange Council place the debt at $533 billion.

State Sen. Darren Bailey, who’s running against incumbent Democratic Gov. J.B. Pritzker, said he’ll use reduced state spending to pay down pensions.

“We’ll find the fat in the budget and we’ll begin to apply that to get this pension situation under control, but first and foremost, I will be sitting at the table with pensioners,” Bailey, R-Xenia, told The Center Square. “I fear that the pension debt may be that large looming problem that will sneak up on Illinois if we continue to ignore it as J.B. Pritzker has.”

Pritzker touts on his campaign website “fully funding pension contributions” as a way to reduce state pension liabilities, “going above and beyond with payments and expanding the employee pension buyout program.”

Pritzker’s campaign did not return requests for an interview.

Author(s): Greg Bishop

Publication Date: 2 Nov 2022

Publication Site: The Center Square

How Pension Plans Evolved Out of the Great Financial Crisis

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.ai-cio.com/news/how-pension-plans-evolved-out-of-the-great-financial-crisis/

Excerpt:

A recent webinar held by the National Institute on Retirement Security, in conjunction with consulting firm Segal and Lazard Asset Management, reviewed the report “Examining the Experience of Public Pension Plans Since the Great Recession,” which examines how public retirement plans weathered the period’s market and made subsequent changes to public pension funds to ensure their long-term sustainability.

Most plans recovered their losses between 2011 and 2014, three to six years after the market bottom. Despite the recession and subsequent loss of value, plans continued to pay out over a trillion dollars in benefits to subscribers during the period.

Todd Tauzer, vice president at Segal, says that since 2008, the models and risk assessment strategies of public plans have evolved greatly. Tauzer says, “funding status alone does not indicate health of a public pension, after all, one cannot see the underlying assumptions used. A plan’s funding status can be measured in many different ways, and the ways we measure can change over time.”

“Plans today are on a much stronger measurement of liability than they were 15 years ago,” according to Tauzer. Adjustments to the assumption of the models in mortality, the assumed rate of return, general population counts, and the assumed rate of inflation are a few of the assumptions modified which give greater clarity into pension health post-GFC.

Author(s): Dusty Hagedorn

Publication Date: 17 Oct 2022

Publication Site: ai-CIO