Category: Public Finance

Examining the Experiences of Public Pension Plans Since the Great Recession

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.nirsonline.org/reports/greatrecession/

PDF of report: https://www.nirsonline.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/compressedExamining-the-Experiences-of-Public-Pension-Plans-Since-the-Great-Recession-10.13.pdf

Webinar slides: https://www.nirsonline.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/FINAL-Great-Recession-Retro-Public-Webinar.pdf

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This report finds that state and local government retirement systems on the whole successfully navigated the 2007 to 2009 Global Financial Crisis. Moreover, public retirement systems across the nation have adapted in the years since the recession by taking actions to ensure continued long-term resiliency.

Examining the Experiences of Public Pension Plans Since the Great Recession is authored by Tyler Bond, NIRS Research Manager, Dan Doonan, NIRS Executive Director, Todd Tauzer, Segal Vice President and Actuary, and Ronald Temple, Lazard Managing Director and Co-Head of Multi-Asset and Head of U.S. Equity.

The report finds:

  • The majority of public pension plans recovered their pre- recession asset levels within six years, while continuing to pay over a trillion dollars in benefits. In recent years, public plans have reported record-high asset levels.
  • Discount rates, or the assumed rate of return on investments, have broadly decreased from eight to seven percent for the median public pension plan, based on actuarial and financial forecasts of future market returns.
  • Generational mortality tables, possible today with more advanced financial modeling software, have been broadly adopted by nearly all large public plans and future longevity improvements are now incorporated into standard financial projections.
  • Many public plans have shortened amortization periods, or the period of time required to pay off an unfunded actuarial accrued liability, to align with evolving actuarial best practices. Tightening amortization periods, akin to paying off a mortgage more quickly, has had the effect of increasing short- term costs. In the long run, plans and stakeholders will benefit.
  • The intense focus on public plan investment programs since the Great Recession misses the more important structural changes that generally have had a larger impact on plan finances and the resources necessary for retirement security.
  • Plans have adjusted strategic asset allocations in response to market conditions. With less exposure to public equities and fixed income, plans increased exposure to real estate, private equity, and hedge funds.
  • Professionally managed public defined benefit plans rebalance investments during volatile times and avoid the behavioral drag observed in retail investment.

Author(s): Dan Doonan, Ron Temple, Todd Tauzer, Tyler Bond

Publication Date: October 2022

Publication Site: NIRS

The triple lock will condemn Britain

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-pensions-triple-lock-will-condemn-britain

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The triple lock says that each year the state pension will increase by inflation, average earnings, or 2.5 per cent, whichever was highest in the year before. It is hugely popular with the Conservative party’s elderly base. It is also a fiscal and economic millstone around the British government’s neck.

The last two years have amply illustrated the basic problems with the design of the scheme. The first is that it was clearly not created with unusual economic circumstances in mind. In 2021, wages dropped in a short but deep recession. The next year, they went back up again. In economic terms, very little had changed. The rule used by the triple lock, however, treated this like a period of strong economic growth. If it had been left untouched, pensions would have increased by 8 per cent. And thanks to the ratcheting effect of the triple lock mechanism, they would have retained that boost against UK GDP into the long term.

In the end, the government ended up suspending the triple lock for a year, only to fall right into another unusual situation: stagflation, where economic activity stagnates but inflation skyrockets. Again, the triple lock recommends a large boost to pensions when government finances are already under strain, and again, this would lift up pensions as a share of GDP long term. And again, the government should suspend the rule to avoid this. But it seems Liz Truss has bottled it. 

You would have thought it tempting for the Conservative party to wave these away as two unusual years; in normal times – when GDP, inflation, and earnings increase together – then everything would be fine, right? Well, no. The way the triple lock is designed means that whenever you have a downturn, pensions will tend to rise as a share of GDP. And whenever you have a boom, they keep pace. The net effect is a constant ratchet where pensions,  in the words of the work and pensions select committee, take up an ‘ever-greater share of national income’.

This is not sustainable. Spending on the state pension is already set to rise significantly as a share of GDP over the coming decades; as the population gets older, there are more people claiming pensions and fewer working to pay for them. Add the triple lock into the mix, and you double the expected increase in demand. Scrapping the arbitrary 2.5 per cent element doesn’t do a lot to help, either; you still have significant growth through the ratcheting effects of the first two elements.

Author(s): Sam Ashworth-Hayes

Publication Date: 19 Oct 2022

Publication Site: The Spectator UK

As Pension Goes Broke, Bankruptcy Haunts City Near Philadelphia

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://news.bloomberglaw.com/bankruptcy-law/as-pension-goes-broke-bankruptcy-haunts-city-near-philadelphia

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Decade after decade, Chester, Pennsylvania, has fallen deeper and deeper into a downward financial spiral.

As the city’s population dwindled to half its mid-century peak, shuttered factories near the banks of the Delaware River were replaced by a prison and one of the nation’s largest trash incinerators. A Major League Soccer stadium and casino did little to turn around the predominantly Black city just outside Philadelphia, where 30% of its 33,000 residents live below the poverty line. Debt piled up. The government struggled to balance the books.

Now, with its police pension set to run out of cash in months, a state-appointed receiver is considering a last resort that cities rarely take: filing for bankruptcy.

…..

In the years after the housing-market crash, three California cities, Detroit and Puerto Rico all went bankrupt, in large part because of retirement-fund debts. Such pensions are now being tested again, with the S&P 500 Index tumbling over 20% this year and bonds pummeled by the worst losses in decades.

….

Michael Doweary, who was appointed receiver of the city in 2020, is exploring options such as eliminating retiree health care, cutting the city’s costs for active employees’ medical benefits and reducing the city’s pension and debt-service costs. 

But that’s virtually certain to draw resistance from employees, who would need to approve such changes. In February, Pennsylvania’s Department of Community and Economic Development gave Doweary the power to seek bankruptcy protection for Chester if such steps fall through. 

“The answer is not to go to people and say we promised you if you work here for 25 years we’re going to give you post-retirement medical benefits, and then take it back,” said Les Neri, a former president of the Pennsylvania Fraternal Order of Police who is currently working with Chester’s officers. “At least current officers can make a decision to accept it and stay, or reject it and leave.”

Author(s): Hadriana Lowenkron

Publication Date: 17 Oct 2022

Publication Site: Bloomberg Law

The History of the Social Security COLA: A Timeline

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.thinkadvisor.com/2022/10/11/the-history-of-the-social-security-cola-a-timeline/

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The first Social Security COLA — an 8% benefit increase — happened in 1975. The COLAs were effective in June of the applicable year. Since 1982, adjustments have taken effect in December, with benefit increases reflected in January payments.

Over the years, adjustments have ranged from no adjustment — in both 2009 and 2010 — to a high of 14.3% in 1980. The COLA was 5.9% in 2022.

The 2023 COLA will be 8.7%, the biggest increase since 1981. Here are some thoughts on a few notable past COLAs. Tap or hover your mouse over the graph to see the COLAs for each year.

Author(s): Roger Wohlner

Publication Date: 11 Oct 2022

Publication Site: Think Advisor

Why Aren’t More People Claiming Government Benefits?

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article/why-arent-more-people-claiming-government-benefits/

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When the Biden administration expanded the Child Tax Credit in 2021 with direct cash payments of up to $3,600 to alleviate child poverty, millions of the most vulnerable families never received the automatic payments because they didn’t have a digital connection with the Internal Revenue Service through a previous income tax filing online. The burden was on those families to seek out the public benefit.

To boost awareness, the government launched a messaging campaign to let families know that up to $3,600 a year was waiting for them. But months later, millions of dollars were still unclaimed.

A new study led by Wharton marketing professor Wendy De La Rosa pinpoints the reason why so many Americans left money on the table: The large amount seemed like an abstraction because people don’t think about money on a yearly basis. Through a series of experiments, the researchers found that people were more likely to collect the money if it was conveyed as a monthly or weekly amount — $300 or $69 — similar to how they budget.

Author(s): Angie Basiouny

Publication Date: 11 Oct 2022

Publication Site: Knowledge @ Wharton

Solvency And Sustainability Of Social Security

Mary Pat Campbell

Link:https://www.lifehealth.com/solvency-and-sustainability-of-social-security/

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2021 Costs Exceed Income

As seen from subtracting the total cost shown in Table 2 from the total income shown in Table 1, Social Security paid out $56.3 billion more in benefits and expenses than it collected in income.

Because Social Security has trust funds, the total costs of 2021 were still met. However, the trust funds declined in 2021 by the $56.3 billion that costs exceeded income. At the end of 2020, the trust funds totaled $2,908.3 billion, and at the end of 2021, the trust funds totaled $2,852.0 billion.

Solvency

As highlighted in the Academy’s issue brief An Actuarial Perspective on the 2022 Social Security Trustees Report, the 2022 Trustees Report contains key solvency facts about the system:

  • Social Security costs continue to be projected to exceed the income of the program, until the trust funds are projected to become depleted during 2035.
  • If changes to the program are not implemented before 2035, 80% of scheduled benefits would be payable after depletion of the trust funds in 2035, declining to 74% by 2096.

Author(s): Amy Kemp, MAAA, ASA, EA

Publication Date: October 2022

Publication Site: Advisor Magazine

Young Versus Old Will Define Fight Over Public Pensions

Mary Pat Campbell

Link:https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/young-versus-old-will-define-fight-over-public-pensions/2022/10/06/d4fae69a-4566-11ed-be17-89cbe6b8c0a5_story.html

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Younger workers are mostly excluded from those benefits, and few believe pension funds will be around to pay them at retirement time anyway. So younger workers want salary increases rather than promises. Also, portable, employee-directed accounts like 401(k)s rather than large and ever-increasing contributions to black-hole public pension systems. The fight in 2023 may be more between younger and older public employees than between united public employees and taxpayers.I think young employees will score their first victory after many years of getting pushed down. It will be short-term inflation then that applies lethal pressure in a tight labor market, not stock prices, interest rates or even longer-term expectations of price increases. Wages will have to be raised for public employees, who will refuse burdens from past underfunding or benefit cuts that apply only to them. The alternative is unacceptable declines in public services as the best employees quit, job openings go unfilled and qualifications for new hires are lowered.The most heavily indebted states, with the worst credit ratings and biggest pension funding shortfalls, may not be able to pay these increases. While 2022 should be a good revenue year for a majority of state and local governments, heavily indebted states with big pension-funding gaps need to brace for some serious headwinds. Illinois already spends 11% of its revenue to service debt. Increased yields on its bonds could double that to 22% as debt is refinanced, even if the state runs balanced budgets.

The temptation to cut benefits for retirees may be overwhelming. While these people can (and will) yell and scream, that’s easier to accept than a teachers’ strike or a police slowdown. Current employees can be offered generous wage increases and portable pensions. Reducing actuarial pension liabilities will please creditors and rating agencies. Taxpayers will appreciate being spared. In many states, cutting benefits will require a constitutional amendment or other legal heavy lifting, but with enough incentive, that can be done.

I expect something like Social Security reforms. A cap will cut benefits for people receiving the highest pensions, and states will put tax surcharges on benefits for high-income people even if they have moved out-of-state. Copays and deductibles will be increased for health coverage.

The first state to try this will face strong legal challenges, a nationwide union counteroffensive and significant in-state political resistance. But with enough fiscal pressure it may happen. If state administrations can keep current public employees on the sidelines, via wage increases and benefit restructuring, it might succeed.

Author(s): Aaron Brown, Bloomberg

Publication Date: 6 Oct 2022

Publication Site: Washington Post

5 THINGS WRONG WITH ILLINOIS HOLDING 30% OF U.S. PENSION BOND DEBT

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.illinoispolicy.org/5-things-wrong-with-illinois-holding-30-of-u-s-pension-bond-debt/

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Pension obligation bonds, like payday loans, are a sign of mismanaged finances. Illinois not only leads the nation for using that risky debt, it owes the bulk of it.

It is bad Illinois has the nation’s worst pension crisis, but state politicians have made it worse by using risky debt to delay the day of reckoning, and done so to the point that Illinois now owes 30% of the nation’s pension obligation bonds.

….

In 2013, Illinois took a significant step towards addressing the pension crisis by passing Public Act 98-0599. This bill protected any benefits that had already been earned by employees while it amended future benefits. The bill increased the retirement age, replaced 3% compounding annual raises with cost-of-living adjustments tied to inflation and capped maximum pensionable salaries. While not a solution, this bill provided a responsible roadmap addressing the financial issues in the pension system while preserving already earned benefits.

Unfortunately, the bill was declared unconstitutional by the Illinois Supreme Court in 2015 because it was interpreted as changing promised future benefits for pension recipients, even though this could potentially result in financial ruin for Illinois. As a result, a constitutional amendment is needed to allow changes to future pension benefits.

Author(s): Aneesh Bafna

Publication Date: 10 Sept 2021

Publication Site: Illinois Policy Institute

Where Do People Pay the Most in Property Taxes?

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://taxfoundation.org/property-taxes-by-state-county-2022/

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Median property taxes paid vary widely across (and within) the 50 states. The lowest bills in the country are in six counties or county equivalents with median property taxes of less than $200 a year:

  • Northwest Arctic Borough and the Kusivlak Census Area (Alaska)*
  • Avoyelles, East Carroll, and Madison (Louisiana)
  • Choctaw (Alabama)

(*Significant parts of Alaska have no property taxes, though most of these areas have such small populations that they are excluded from federal surveys.)

The next-lowest median property tax of $201 is found in Allen Parish, near the middle of Louisiana, followed by $218 in McDowell County, West Virginia, in the southernmost part of the state.

The eight counties with the highest median property tax payments all have bills exceeding $10,000:

  • Bergen, Essex, and Union (New Jersey)
  • Nassau, New York, Rockland, and Westchester (New York)
  • Falls Church (Virginia)

All but Falls Church are near New York City, as is the next highest, Passaic County, New Jersey ($9,999). 

Author(s): Janelle Fritts

Publication Date: 13 Sept 2022

Publication Site: Tax Foundation

Debt Forgiveness Won’t Shield Students from Illinois’ Pension Pinch

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.realclearpolicy.com/articles/2022/09/14/debt_forgiveness_wont_shield_students_from_illinois_pension_pinch_853360.html

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Families in Illinois are now burdened with the fourth most expensive in-state tuition prices in the nation, and the highest in the Midwest. 

Take U of I’s flagship Urbana-Champaign campus, with base tuition and fees now starting at $17,138 a year. In comparison, a Big-10 education for in-state students attending Indiana University-Bloomington or the University of Wisconsin-Madison costs nearly $6,000 less.

Illinois schools cost more because most other states don’t have Illinois-sized pension debt – most recently estimated at $140 billion by the Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability. 

Illinois Policy Institute research shows state funding has declined for higher education operations by 26%  in real terms from fiscal year 2007 through fiscal year 2022, while spending on university pensions has exploded by 514%.

Another way of looking at it is the State Universities Retirement System pension payments accounted for 9% of the state’s higher education spending in 2007. Today, they account for 44% of total higher education dollars. That translates to $776 million less for colleges and universities to allocate toward services that directly benefit students in 2022.

Author(s): Amy Korte

Publication Date: 14 Sept 2022

Publication Site: Real Clear Policy

Massachusetts’ Graduated Income Tax Amendment Threatens the Commonwealth’s Economic Transformation

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://taxfoundation.org/massachusetts-graduated-income-tax-amendment/

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Massachusetts is already trending in the wrong direction in terms of migration. Since 2013, Massachusetts’ net population change levels have been trending downward; and in 2020 the Commonwealth realized its first net negative population change since 2004. Massachusetts lost an estimated 1,309 residents in 2020 but that figure grew to 37,497 by 2021. Much of that change is likely attributable to various changes brought on by the pandemic, including the expansion of remote work opportunities. However, Massachusetts’ struggle with migration precedes the pandemic.

The Bay State’s net migration levels generally mirror the downward trajectory of the net population change figures, but a closer look reveals that Massachusetts was experiencing net negative migration even before the pandemic began. The downward trend for net migration reached net negative levels in 2019, the first year since 2007.

Whether Massachusetts’ net migration figure is positive or negative primarily depends on the strength of net international migration. For 20 of the last 22 years, Massachusetts has seen net negative domestic migration. What this effectively means is that it is preferable to migrate to Massachusetts from abroad, but once a person lives there, it is preferable to move somewhere else. Between July 1, 2020 and July 1, 2021, an estimated 12,675 more people moved to the Bay State from abroad than left for foreign destinations. However, 46,187 more people left Massachusetts for other domestic locations than moved in from elsewhere in the United States.[14] This should concern policymakers, but the figure that should be even more concerning is the net outmigration of adjusted gross income (AGI).

Author(s): Timothy Vermeer

Publication Date: 13 Sept 2022

Publication Site: Tax Foundation