The Music City Meltdown

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-music-city-meltdown-11619649990

Excerpt:

Like many cities, Nashville is also in hock to pensioners, with $4.3 billion in unfunded promises for retiree healthcare. And though Nashville’s pension system is well-funded, it is also expensive to maintain because employees contribute almost nothing, leaving taxpayers on the hook for about $110 million in annual contributions—and potentially more when investments tank. Despite the burden, the city resisted adopting reforms the state enacted in 2013, when Tennessee switched to a pension plan that requires employees to contribute 5% of their wages.

Nashville’s balance sheet wasn’t in any shape to endure a massive pandemic hit. Led by a 50% decline in tourism, the city’s economy slumped last spring, and unemployment soared above 15%. That punched a $332 million hole in the fiscal 2021 budget, prompting then-Tennessee Comptroller Justin Wilson to warn in September of a state takeover. The city could become “kind of like a teenager coming to their parent asking for $20 to go to the movies,” he said.

Author(s): Steven Malanga

Publication Date: 28 April 2021

Publication Site: Wall Street Journal

Morning with Meep – ASOP 56 – Modeling

Mary Pat Campbell

Description:

I take a look at the Actuarial Standard of Practice 56: Modeling — in effect as of October 2020.

Links: Keep Up With the Standards: On ASOP 56, Modeling

https://www.soa.org/sections/modeling/modeling-newsletter/2021/april/mp-2021-04-campbell/

ASOP 56: Modeling

http://www.actuarialstandardsboard.org/asops/modeling-3/

Author(s): Mary Pat Campbell

Publication Date: 3 May 2021

Publication Site: Meep’s Math Matters at Youtube

Your Pension Board Thinks It’s Smarter Than Warren Buffett—It’s Not

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.forbes.com/sites/edwardsiedle/2021/05/01/your-pension-board-thinks-its-smarter-than-warren-buffett-its-not/?sh=b3fdc2611302

Excerpt:

Buffett has a consistent history of blasting Wall Street firms for charging high fees for actively managed investments and has recommended pensions invest in low-cost passively managed index funds.

You might think that underfunded pensions struggling to pay benefits would heed Buffett’s advice and seek to cut the fees they pay Wall Street.

Embrace austerity. Tighten their belts. Trim the fat. 

In fact, every forensic investigation I’ve ever undertaken has exposed that the nearer a pension is to insolvency, the higher the fees and the greater the risks the pension takes on.

Author(s): Ted Siedle

Publication Date: 1 May 2021

Publication Site: Forbes

Members of teacher pension fund planning lawsuit to force transparency

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://news.yahoo.com/members-teacher-pension-fund-planning-110300430.html?guccounter=1

Excerpt:

About 1,000 current and retired Ohio educators skeptical of the true financial shape of their $90 billion state pension fund are preparing to sue to force greater cooperation with a $75,000 self-funded investigation of its books.

The forensics audit, financed through money raised from members, is being undertaken by pension investment expert Ted Siedle — a former Securities Exchange Commission attorney, financial forensics investigator, and co-author of the book “Who Stole My Pension?”

The public records lawsuit will ask the Ohio Supreme Court to force the State Teachers Retirement System, serving some 500,000 active, inactive, and retired members, to release information that investment firms have claimed is proprietary or a trade secret.

Author(s): Jim Provance, The Blade, Toledo, Ohio

Publication Date: 3 May 2021

Publication Site: Yahoo News

Data visualizations: Choosing colors with purpose

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://uxdesign.cc/data-visualizations-choosing-colors-with-purpose-4a672ac0215a

Graphic:

Excerpt:

The incorporation of intuitive color maps in data visualizations is an extremely useful tool, but has one major drawback: the information conveyed by the colors is lost to those who cannot distinguish between them. According to the Colour Blind Awareness Organisation (UK-based), approximately 8% of men and 0.5% of women worldwide have some form of color vision deficiency (CVD). Fortunately, certain scientifically derived color maps have been created which are able to maintain distinguishability across various different types of color blindness. Several such color maps are shown below with their corresponding CVD-adjusted perceptions.

Author(s): T. J. Kyner

Publication Date: 30 April 2021

Publication Site: UX Collective

Warren Buffett Defends Berkshire’s Moves Over Pandemic Year

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.wsj.com/articles/warren-buffett-set-to-discuss-pandemic-markets-at-berkshires-annual-meeting-11619887342?reflink=desktopwebshare_twitter

Excerpt:

Warren Buffett defended Berkshire Hathaway Inc.’s investments over the past year, while saving his harshest comments for some of the hottest investment vehicles at the company’s annual meeting.

Speaking onstage from Los Angeles, Mr. Buffett, Berkshire’s chairman and chief executive, and his business partner, Charlie Munger, took questions for roughly four hours. The two men said some special-purpose acquisition companies, day traders and private-equity funds that have driven valuations in both private and public companies to record levels were more gamblers than investors.

“I don’t mind the poor fish that gamble,” Mr. Munger said Saturday. “I don’t like the professionals that take the suckers.”

“It’s a moral failing. It’s not just stupid, it’s shameful,” he said of SPACs.

Author(s): Jenna Telesca, Geoffrey Rogow

Publication Date: 1 May 2021

Publication Site: Wall Street Journal

India is struggling with a catastrophic second wave

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.economist.com/asia/2021/04/24/india-is-struggling-with-a-catastrophic-second-wave

Excerpt:

More disturbing still, India’s soaring official covid-19 count represents the tip of an iceberg. Because of low testing rates outside big cities, say epidemiologists, the actual caseload could be anything from ten to 30 times higher. A national serological survey conducted in December found 21% of Indians were carrying covid-19 antibodies, compared with an official tally which suggested that only about 1% of India’s people had been infected by that time. More recently, local journalists who have cross-checked hospital and funeral records against government numbers have found similar, gaping discrepancies across the country. One report revealed that in the second week of April, when authorities in Vadodara, a city in the state of Gujarat, announced seven covid-19 deaths, the count in two hospitals alone was more than 300. This suggests that India could be facing not 2,000 deaths a day, as the current official count shows, but something much higher.

Publication Date: 24 April 2021

Publication Site: The Economist

Cuomo Aides Spent Months Hiding Nursing Home Death Toll

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/28/nyregion/cuomo-aides-nursing-home-deaths.html?smid=tw-share

Excerpt:

Aides to the New York governor, Andrew M. Cuomo, repeatedly prevented state health officials from releasing the number of nursing home deaths in the pandemic.

The effort by Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo’s office to obscure the pandemic death toll in New York nursing homes was far greater than previously known, with aides repeatedly overruling state health officials over a span of at least five months, according to interviews and newly unearthed documents.

Mr. Cuomo’s most senior aides engaged in a sustained effort to prevent the state’s own health officials, including the commissioner, Howard Zucker, from releasing the true death toll to the public or sharing it with state lawmakers, these interviews and documents showed.

A scientific paper, which incorporated the data, was never published. An audit of the numbers by a top Cuomo aide was finished months before it became publicly known. Two letters, drafted by the Health Department and meant for state legislators, were never sent.

….

The Cuomo administration’s handling of nursing home death data now is the subject of a federal investigation, one of at least four overlapping inquiries into the governor and his administration. As of this month, more than 15,500 nursing home residents with Covid-19 have died.

Author(s): Goodman, J David; Mckinley, Jesse; Hakim, Danny.

Publication Date: 28 April 2021

Publication Site: New York Times

Nearly 1.5 Million Mothers Are Still Missing From the Workforce

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.wsj.com/articles/nearly-1-5-million-mothers-are-still-missing-from-the-workforce-11619472229

Graphic:

Excerpt:

Black and Hispanic women disproportionately work in industries — such as leisure and hospitality — that were most negatively affected by the pandemic, said Valerie Wilson, director of the Economic Policy Institute’s Program on Race, Ethnicity and the Economy.

Since February of last year, participation rates for white women, including mothers, haven’t dropped more than 3.2 percentage points. Rates for women of color — especially Black and Hispanic mothers with children under 5 — have at times fallen more.

Large numbers of Black and Hispanic women work in essential sectors — most notably healthcare — that have seen increased demand in the past year. But in those industries, according to Dr. Wilson, they tend to hold jobs that offer comparatively low pay and flexibility.

The average number of hours men and women work per week has varied more widely since the start of the pandemic than in recent years. People have worked fewer hours overall, with men’s time dropping more significantly. That has narrowed — but not closed — the gap between hours worked by men and women.

Author(s): Katherine Riley, Stephanie Stamm |

Publication Date: 27 April 2021

Publication Site: Wall Street Journal

NY State Pension Commits to $400 Million in Sustainable Investments

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.ai-cio.com/news/ny-state-pension-commits-400-million-sustainable-investments/

Excerpt:

The $247.7 billion New York State Common Retirement Fund has committed approximately $400 million to two funds as part of its Sustainable Investments and Climate Solutions (SICS) Program.

The commitments are part of New York State Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli’s climate action plan to lower investment risks from climate change and help shift the pension fund to net-zero greenhouse gas emissions within the next 20 years.

“While climate change poses investment risks, it also creates opportunities for the state pension fund to invest in the companies and funds that are best positioned for the low-carbon future,” DiNapoli said in a statement. “The commitments we announced today aim to take advantage of the growth in climate investing and to strengthen our portfolio for the long-term.”

Author(s): Michael Katz

Publication Date: 26 April 2021

Publication Site: ai-CIO

1918 Influenza: the Mother of All Pandemics

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/12/1/05-0979_article

Graphic:

Abstract:

The “Spanish” influenza pandemic of 1918–1919, which caused ≈50 million deaths worldwide, remains an ominous warning to public health. Many questions about its origins, its unusual epidemiologic features, and the basis of its pathogenicity remain unanswered. The public health implications of the pandemic therefore remain in doubt even as we now grapple with the feared emergence of a pandemic caused by H5N1 or other virus. However, new information about the 1918 virus is emerging, for example, sequencing of the entire genome from archival autopsy tissues. But, the viral genome alone is unlikely to provide answers to some critical questions. Understanding the 1918 pandemic and its implications for future pandemics requires careful experimentation and in-depth historical analysis.

Author(s): Jeffery K. Taubenberger, David M. Morens

Publication Date: January 2006

Publication Site: CDC