How COVID-19 has Affected Mortality in 2020 to 2023 [Australia]

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.actuaries.asn.au/public-policy-and-media/our-thought-leadership/reports/how-covid-19-has-affected-mortality-in-2020-to-2023?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=240722-PPP-How%20COVID-19%20has%20Affected%20Mortality%20in%202020%20to%202023-Members&utm_content=240722-PPP-How%20COVID-19%20has%20Affected%20Mortality%20in%202020%20to%202023-Members+CID_aedad499bf553276132939b99d7a0215&utm_source=Campaign%20Monitor&utm_term=How%20COVID-19%20Affected%20Mortality%20in%20Australia%20from%202020%20to%202023

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Excerpt:

There were 8,400 more deaths in Australia in 2023 than predicted had the pandemic not occurred – less than half of the almost 20,000 excess deaths estimated for 2022.

The new Research Paper from the Mortality Working Group explores how COVID-19 affected mortality in Australia from 2020 to 2023 and how Australia’s experience compares with the rest of the world.  

In brief: 

  • The steep decline in excess deaths in 2023 was primarily due to the number of people dying from COVID-19 falling to 4,600 in 2023 from 10,300 in 2022.  
  • While Australia’s excess mortality rate had dropped substantially, it remains significantly higher than the 1-2% excess observed in years of high flu deaths prior to the pandemic.  
  • When analysing the excess mortality of 40 countries from 2020 to 2023, Australia’s excess mortality over the four-year period (5%) was low by global standards (11%).  

Author(s): Mortality Working Group. Members Karen Cutter, Ronald Lai, Jennifer Lang, Han Li, Richard
Lyon, Matt Ralph, Amitoze Singh, Michael Seymour, Zhan Wang.

Publication Date: July 2024

Publication Site: Actuaries Institute

IRS: ILLINOIS LOSES $9.9B IN INCOME AS 87,311 RESIDENTS MOVE OUT IN 2022

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.illinoispolicy.org/irs-illinois-loses-9-9b-in-income-as-87311-residents-move-out-in-2022/

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Excerpt:

New data shows $9.9 billion flowed from Illinois to other states because people moved out in 2022. Most of those leaving earned $100,000 or more.

When Illinoisans move away, they take their money with them: $9.9 billion in 2022, according to new data from the Internal Revenue Service.

Tax returns for 2021 and 2022 show Illinois lost 86,693 individuals and $9.9 billion because of outmigration. Most of them were high-income Illinoisans.

Author(s): Bryce Hill

Publication Date: 1 July 2024

Publication Site: Illinois Policy Institute

U.S. Insurers’ Bank Loan Exposure Rises at a Decelerated Pace in 2023

Mary Pat Campbell

Link:

https://content.naic.org/sites/default/files/capital-markets-special-reports-bank-loans-ye2023_0.pdf

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Executive Summary:

Bank loan investments increased to about $122 billion in book/adjusted carrying value (BACV)
at year-end 2023 from $117 billion at year-end 2022.

Despite the 4.6% growth, bank loansremained at 1.4% of U.S. insurers’ total cash and invested
assets at year-end 2023—the same as year-end 2022.

Approximately 70% of U.S. insurers’ bank loan investments were acquired, and 85% were held
by life companies.

In particular, large life companies, or those with more than $10 billion in assets under
management, accounted for 82% of U.S. insurers’ bank loan exposure, up from nearly 80% in
2022.

The top 25 insurance companies accounted for 75% of U.S. insurers’ total bank loan
investments at year-end 2023; the top 10 accounted for about 60%.

Improvement in credit quality for U.S. insurer-bank loans continued, evidenced by a fourpercentage-point increase in those carrying NAIC 1 and NAIC 2 designations and a
corresponding four-percentage-point decrease in bank loans carrying NAIC 3 and NAIC 4
designations.

Author(s): Jennifer Johnson

Publication Date: 16 July 2024

Publication Site: NAIC Capital Markets Special Report

Bonds Yields Jump Again Wiping Out the May Treasury Rally

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://mishtalk.com/economics/bonds-yields-jump-again-wiping-out-the-may-treasury-rally/

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Excerpt:

Yield on the 10-year treasury is 4.59 percent on May 29, right where it started the month. A quarter-point rally on hopes of rate cuts vanished today.

Yields are still lower than the 2024 intraday peak of 4.74 percent, but they are nearly 70 basis points higher than the start of the year as rate cut after rate cut hopes keep getting priced out.

Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari says he wants to see “many more months” of positive inflation numbers before interest rates start to come down — and refused to rule out a rate hike if needed.

Author(s): Mike Shedlock

Publication Date: 29 May 2024

Publication Site: Mish Talk