As U.S. Nears 800,000 Virus Deaths, 1 of Every 100 Older Americans Has Perished

Link: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/13/us/covid-deaths-elderly-americans.html

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As the coronavirus pandemic approaches the end of a second year, the United States stands on the cusp of surpassing 800,000 deaths from the virus, and no group has suffered more than older Americans. All along, older people have been known to be more vulnerable, but the scale of loss is only now coming into full view.

Seventy-five percent of people who have died of the virus in the United States — or about 600,000 of the nearly 800,000 who have perished so far — have been 65 or older. One in 100 older Americans has died from the virus. For people younger than 65, that ratio is closer to 1 in 1,400.

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After the first known coronavirus death in the United States in February 2020, the virus’s death toll in this country reached 100,000 people in only three months. The pace of deaths slowed throughout summer 2020, then quickened throughout the fall and winter, and then slowed again this spring and summer.

Throughout the summer, most people dying from the virus were concentrated in the South. But the most recent 100,000 deaths — beginning in early October — have spread out across the nation, in a broad belt across the middle of the country from Pennsylvania to Texas, the Mountain West and Michigan.

These most recent 100,000 deaths, too, have all occurred in less than 11 weeks, a sign that the pace of deaths is moving more quickly once again — faster than at any time other than last winter’s surge.

By now, Covid-19 has become the third leading cause of death among Americans 65 and older, after heart disease and cancer. It is responsible for about 13 percent of all deaths in that age group since the beginning of 2020, more than diabetes, accidents, Alzheimer’s disease or dementia.

Author(s): Julie Bosman, Amy Harmon and Albert Sun

Publication Date: 13 Dec 2021

Publication Site: New York Times

Covid Spurs Biggest Rise in Life-Insurance Payouts in a Century

Link:https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-spurs-biggest-rise-in-life-insurance-payouts-in-a-century-11639045802

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The Covid-19 pandemic last year drove the biggest increase in death benefits paid by U.S. life insurers since the 1918 influenza epidemic, an industry trade group said.

Death-benefit payments rose 15.4% in 2020 to $90.43 billion, mostly due to the pandemic, according to the American Council of Life Insurers. In 1918, payments surged 41%.

The hit to the insurance industry was less than expected early in the pandemic because many of the victims were older people who typically have smaller policies. The industry paid out $78.36 billion in 2019, and payouts have typically increased modestly each year.

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In the 1918 flu pandemic, the number of U.S. deaths reached about 675,000, with mortality high in people younger than 5 years old, 20 to 40 years old, and 65 years and older, according to the CDC’s website.

The ACLI’s data show two other years, both in the 1920s, when year-over-year increases topped 15%, when there also were influenza epidemics, said Andrew Melnyk, the ACLI’s vice president of research and chief economist.

Author(s): Leslie Scism

Publication Date: 9 Dec 2021

Publication Site: Wall Street Journal

Early data on Omicron show surging cases but milder symptoms

Link:https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2021/12/11/early-data-on-omicron-show-surging-cases-but-milder-symptoms?utm_campaign=the-economist-today&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_source=salesforce-marketing-cloud&utm_term=2021-12-09&utm_content=article-link-1&etear=nl_today_1

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Two weeks after the Omicron variant was identified, hospitals are bracing for a covid-19 tsunami. In South Africa, where it has displaced Delta, cases are rising faster than in earlier waves. Each person with Omicron may infect 3-3.5 others. Delta’s most recent rate in the country was 0.8.

Publication Date: 11 dec 2021

Publication Site: The Economist

COVID cases and deaths are on the rise

Link:https://www.axios.com/covid-cases-deaths-vaccines-omicron-0623380c-e665-435d-a144-4996e74ef5ff.html?mc_cid=0b15989f29&mc_eid=983bcf5922

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Where it stands: The U.S. is now averaging roughly 120,000 new COVID cases per day, a 26% increase over the past two weeks.

Average cases briefly dipped below 100,000 as the summer’s Delta wave receded, but the virus has rebounded quickly. New infections were climbing even before Thanksgiving, and holiday travel likely is accelerating the virus’ spread even further.

Deaths are also on the rise, after tapering off in the fall.

The virus is now killing about 1,300 Americans per day, on average. That’s a 14% increase over the past two weeks.

At this rate, the U.S. will pass 800,000 total deaths — roughly equivalent to the population of the Charleston, South Carolina, metro area — before Christmas.

Author(s): Sam Baker, Kavya Beheraj

Publication Date: 9 Dec 2021

Publication Site: Axios

Omicron Wave Sees South Africa’s Weekly Excess Deaths Almost Double

Link:https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-08/s-african-weekly-excess-deaths-almost-double-amid-omicron-wave

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South African excess deaths, a measure of mortality above a historical average, almost doubled in the week ending Nov. 28 from the preceding seven-day period as a new coronavirus variant spread across the country.

During the period 2,076 more people died than would normally be expected, the South African Medical Research Council said in a report on Wednesday. That compares with 1,091 the week earlier.

The rise, while only reflecting a week of data, contrasts with hospitalization numbers that show that most admissions have mild forms of the coronavirus, spurring hope that the omicron variant is more benign than earlier strains.

Author(s):Antony Sguazzin

Publication Date: 8 Dec 2021

Publication Site: Bloomberg

COVID Data Follies: Vaccination Rates, Relative Risk, and Simpson’s Paradox

Link:https://marypatcampbell.substack.com/p/covid-data-follies-vaccination-rates

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On Monday, December 6, 2021, I gave a talk with the title “COVID Data Follies: Vaccination Rates, Relative Risk, and Simpson’s Paradox”, to the Actuarial Science program at Illinois State University (thanks for the t-shirt, y’all!):

You may have heard statistics in the news that most of the people testing positive for COVID, currently, in a particular location, or most of the people hospitalized for COVID, or even most of the people dying of COVID were vaccinated! How can that be? Does that prove that the vaccines are ineffective? Using real-world data, the speaker, Mary Pat Campbell, will show how these statistics can both be true and misleading. Simpson’s Paradox is involved, which has to do with comparing differences between subgroups with very different sizes and average results. Simpson’s Paradox actually appears quite often in the insurance world.

I will embed a recording of the event, copies of the slides, the spreadsheets, and the links from the talk.

Author(s): Mary Pat Campbell

Publication Date: 8 Dec 2021

Publication Site: STUMP at substack

Diseasonality – Why is winter flu season?

Link:https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/diseasonality

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Cold and humidity are definitely important – scientists can make flu spread faster or slower in guinea pigs just by altering the temperature and humidity of their cages. But it can’t just be cold and humidity. But if it was just cold, you would expect flu to track temperature instead of seasonality. Alaska is colder in the summer than Florida in the winter, so you might expect more summer flu in Alaska than winter flu in Florida. But Alaska and Florida both have lots of flu in the winter and little flu in the summer.

(if it was just humidity, same argument, but change the place names to Arizona and Florida.)

It’s the same story with people being cramped indoors. Common-sensically, this has to be some of the story. But if it were the most important contributor, you would expect to see the opposite pattern in very hot areas, where nobody will go out during the summer but it’s pleasant and balmy in the winter. Yet I have never heard anyone claim that any winter diseases happen in summer in Arizona or Saudi Arabia or terrible places like that.

If it was just vitamin D…look, it’s not vitamin D. Nothing is ever vitamin D. People try so hard to attribute everything to vitamin D, and it never works. The most recent studies show it doesn’t prevent colds or flu, and I think the best available evidence shows it doesn’t prevent coronavirus either. African-Americans, who are all horrendously Vitamin D deficient, don’t get colds at a higher rate than other groups (they do get flu more, but they’re vaccinated less, so whatever).

Author(s): Scott Alexander

Publication Date: 7 Dec 2021

Publication Site: Astral Codex Ten

Study suggests Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine may only partially protect against Omicron

Link:https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/pfizer-covid-19-vaccine-partially-protective-against-omicron-bloomberg-news-2021-12-07/?fbclid=IwAR0rKPM8dNsMnI_iQ0Hbph-KLY0HiI-PzeLmdYGWWoeFdYKsU07SuDjnuNg

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The Omicron variant of the coronavirus can partially evade the protection from two doses of Pfizer Inc (PFE.N) and partner BioNTech’s COVID-19 vaccine, the research head of a laboratory at the Africa Health Research Institute in South Africa said on Tuesday.

Still, the study showed that blood from people who had received two doses of the vaccine and had a prior infection were mostly able to neutralize the variant, suggesting that booster doses of the vaccine could help to fend off infection.

Author(s): Michael Erman

Publication Date: 8 Dec 2021

Publication Site: Reuters

Severity of Disease Among Adults Hospitalized with Laboratory-Confirmed COVID-19 Before and During the Period of SARS-CoV-2 B.1.617.2 (Delta) Predominance — COVID-NET, 14 States, January–August 2021

Link:https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7043e1.htm?s_cid=mm7043e1_w

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What is already known about this topic?

The SARS-CoV-2 B.1.617.2 (Delta) variant is highly transmissible; however, whether it causes more severe disease in adults has been uncertain.

What is added by this report?

Analysis of COVID-NET data from 14 states found no significant increases in the proportion of hospitalized COVID-19 patients with severe outcomes during the Delta period. The proportion of hospitalized unvaccinated COVID-19 patients aged 18–49 years significantly increased during the Delta period.

What are the implications for public health practice?

Lower vaccination coverage in adults aged 18–49 years likely contributed to the increase in hospitalized patients during the Delta period. COVID-19 vaccination is critical for all eligible adults, including adults aged <50 years who have relatively low vaccination rates compared with older adults.

Author(s): Christopher A. Taylor, PhD1; Kadam Patel, MPH1,2; Huong Pham, MPH1; Michael Whitaker, MPH1; Onika Anglin, MPH1,2; Anita K. Kambhampati, MPH1; Jennifer Milucky, MSPH1; Shua J. Chai, MD3,4; Pam Daily Kirley, MPH4; Nisha B. Alden, MPH5; Isaac Armistead, MD5; James Meek, MPH6; Kimberly Yousey-Hindes, MPH6; Evan J. Anderson, MD7,8,9; Kyle P. Openo, DrPH7,8; Kenzie Teno, MPH10; Andy Weigel10; Maya L. Monroe, MPH11; Patricia A. Ryan, MS11; Justin Henderson, MPH12; Val Tellez Nunez, MPH12; Erica Bye, MPH13; Ruth Lynfield, MD13; Mayvilynne Poblete, MA, MPH14; Chad Smelser, MD15; Grant R. Barney, MPH16; Nancy L. Spina, MPH16; Nancy M. Bennett, MD17; Kevin Popham, MPH18; Laurie M. Billing, MPH19; Eli Shiltz, MPH19; Nasreen Abdullah, MD20; Melissa Sutton, MD20; William Schaffner, MD21; H. Keipp Talbot, MD21; Jake Ortega, MPH22; Andrea Price22; Shikha Garg, MD1; Fiona P. Havers, MD1; COVID-NET Surveillance Team

Publication Date: 29 October 2021

Publication Site: MMWR at CDC

COVID-19 Vaccination and Non–COVID-19 Mortality Risk — Seven Integrated Health Care Organizations, United States, December 14, 2020–July 31, 2021

Link:https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7043e2.htm?s_cid=mm7043e2_w

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What is already known about this topic?

Although deaths after COVID-19 vaccination have been reported to the Vaccine Adverse Events Reporting System, few studies have been conducted to evaluate mortality not associated with COVID-19 among vaccinated and unvaccinated groups.

What is added by this report?

During December 2020–July 2021, COVID-19 vaccine recipients had lower rates of non–COVID-19 mortality than did unvaccinated persons after adjusting for age, sex, race and ethnicity, and study site.

What are the implications for public health practice?

There is no increased risk for mortality among COVID-19 vaccine recipients. This finding reinforces the safety profile of currently approved COVID-19 vaccines in the United States. All persons aged ≥12 years should receive a COVID-19 vaccine.

Author(s): Stanley Xu, PhD1; Runxin Huang, MS1; Lina S. Sy, MPH1; Sungching C. Glenn, MS1; Denison S. Ryan, MPH1; Kerresa Morrissette, MPH1; David K. Shay, MD2; Gabriela Vazquez-Benitez, PhD3; Jason M. Glanz, PhD4; Nicola P. Klein, MD, PhD5; David McClure, PhD6; Elizabeth G. Liles, MD7; Eric S. Weintraub, MPH8; Hung-Fu Tseng, MPH, PhD1; Lei Qian, PhD1

Publication Date: 29 October 2021

Publication Site: MMWR at CDC

5 Worst Cities for COVID-19 Case Count Trends

Link:https://www.thinkadvisor.com/2021/11/30/5-worst-cities-for-covid-19-case-count-trends/

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The latest COVID-19 Community Profile Report, which is produced by public health specialists at the CDC and another federal agency, shows that the overall number of new COVID-19 cases per 100,000 people fell to 504,056 in the week ending Nov. 28, down 21% from the total for the previous week.

But, at the metropolitan area level, week-over-week changes ranged from a drop of 100% to an increase of 12%.

Author(s): Allison Bell

Publication Date: 30 Nov 2021

Publication Site: Think Advisor

Omicron is starting to spread around the world

Link:https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2021/11/29/omicron-is-starting-to-spread-around-the-world

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Days after a new variant of SARS-CoV-2 was identified in southern Africa, countries around the world are confirming that they have found cases of it too. The new strain of the virus, B.1.1.529, was first detected in genetic samples from Botswana and South Africa. (Nearly 150 cases have been confirmed in southern Africa since, although the true number is thought to be higher.) On November 24th South Africa’s health authorities told the World Health Organisation, which quickly labelled it a “variant of concern” and assigned it the Greek letter Omicron. Just how long—and where—it has been circulating is not yet clear.

Publication Date: 29 Nov 2021

Publication Site: The Economist