SARS-CoV-2 Seropositivity of U.S. Blood Donors Prior to Availability of Vaccines

Original paper: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34373145/

Abstract:

In the United States, many blood collection organizations initiated programs to test all blood donors for antibodies to SARS-CoV-2, as a measure to increase donations and to assist in the identification of potential donors of COVID-19 convalescent plasma (CCP). As a result, it was possible to investigate the characteristics of healthy blood donors who had previously been infected with SARS-CoV-2. We report the findings from all blood donations collected by the American Red Cross, representing 40% of the national blood supply covering 44 States, in order to characterize the seroepidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 infection among blood donors in the United States, prior to authorized vaccine availability. We performed an observational cohort study from June 15th to November 30th, 2020 on a population of 1.531 million blood donors tested for antibodies to the S1 spike antigen of SARS-CoV-2 by person, place, time, ABO group and dynamics of test reactivity, with additional information from a survey of a subset of those with reactive test results. The overall seroreactivity was 4.22% increasing from 1.18 to 9.67% (June 2020 – November 2020); estimated incidence was 11.6 per hundred person-years, 1.86-times higher than that based upon reported cases in the general population over the same period. In multivariable analyses, seroreactivity was highest in the Midwest (5.21%), followed by the South (4.43%), West (3.43%) and Northeast (2.90%). Seroreactivity was highest among donors aged 18-24 (Odds Ratio 3.02 [95% Confidence Interval 2.80-3.26] vs age >55), African-Americans and Hispanics (1.50 [1.24-1.80] and 2.12 [1.89-2.36], respectively, vs Caucasian). Group O frequency was 51.5% among nonreactive, but 46.1% among seroreactive donors (P< .0001). Of surveyed donors, 45% reported no COVID-19-related symptoms, but 73% among those unaware of testing. Signal levels of antibody tests were stable over 120 days or more and there was little evidence of reinfection. Evaluation of a large population of healthy, voluntary blood donors provided evidence of widespread and increasing SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence and demonstrated that at least 45% of those previously infected were asymptomatic. Epidemiologic findings were similar to those among clinically reported cases.

Author(s): Roger Y Dodd, Bryan R Spencer, Meng Xu 1, Gregory A Foster 1, Paula Saá 1, Jaye P Brodsky 2, Susan L Stramer 3

Publication Date: 18 August 2021

Publication Site: Transfusion News

Meet the Westchester Firm that Saved the President’s Life

Link: https://theexaminernews.substack.com/p/meet-the-westchester-firm-that-saved

Graphic:

Excerpt:

Last January, a blip on the viral radar went unnoticed by much of the world. By the time the public became aware of an emerging pestilence—soon to be known as COVID-19—infectious disease researchers at Tarrytown-based Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc., were already on the hunt for new drugs that could combat the disease.

Dr. Alina Baum, Associate Director for Infectious Diseases at Regeneron, is a trained virologist who has been with the company for almost six years and leads a 12-person research team. She recalled the urgency felt in the wake of the rising numbers COVID cases, hospitalizations, and deaths. “In New York in April, it was terrifying,” she said. “Some of the people in my group were working 80-hour weeks trying to get a drug to the clinic.”

In February, the company started laboratory research; by June, their first human clinical trials testing treatment against COVID-19 were underway.

Author(s): Sherrie Dulworth

Publication Date: 25 August 2021

Publication Site: The Examiner News

New NY governor adds 12,000 deaths to publicized COVID tally

Link: https://apnews.com/article/andrew-cuomo-health-coronavirus-pandemic-7312b49695e726eda8d59848e82271c5

Excerpt:

Delivering another blow to what’s left of former Gov. Andrew Cuomo’s legacy, New York’s new governor acknowledged on her first day in office that the state has had nearly 12,000 more deaths from COVID-19 than Cuomo told the public.

“The public deserves a clear, honest picture of what’s happening. And that’s whether it’s good or bad, they need to know the truth. And that’s how we restore confidence,” Gov. Kathy Hochul said on NPR.

In its first daily update on the outbreak Tuesday evening, Hochul’s office reported that nearly 55,400 people have died of the coronavirus in New York based on death certificate data submitted to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

That’s up from about 43,400 that Cuomo reported to the public as of Monday, his last day in office. The Democrat who was once widely acclaimed for his leadership during the COVID-19 outbreak resigned in the face of an impeachment drive after being accused of sexually harassing at least 11 women, allegations he disputed.

The higher number is not entirely new. Federal health officials and some academic institutions tracking COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. have been using the higher tally for many months because of known gaps in the data Cuomo had been choosing to publicize.

Author(s): MARINA VILLENEUVE

Publication Date: 25 August 2021

Publication Site: AP News

COVID and Simpson’s Paradox: Why So Many Vaccinated People are Among the Current Wave of Hospitalizations

Link: https://marypatcampbell.substack.com/p/covid-and-simpsons-paradox-why-so

Graphic:

Excerpt:

There you have it — for this slice of time, the beginning of August 2021, Israel shows that the vaccines reduced risk 80%+, for all age groups.

Yes, if you just do an aggregation at the whole population level, it looks like a 67% reduction. That’s the “magic” of Simpson’s Paradox. For any given age group, the percentage reduction is much larger. But due to the relative risks by age, even with such high reductions, the overall population result shows a smaller improvement.

Takeaway: COVID vaccines greatly reduce risk

This is the main takeaway: the COVID vaccines greatly reduce the risk of adverse outcomes.

By the way, this is also true of the annual flu vaccines, which range in efficacy based on how well the vaccine that year matches up with the strains circulating, and which strains are circulating (some strains, even if you formulated the vaccine perfectly, still infect.) I could give you flu/pneumonia death rates by age groups, and you would see that flu/pneumonia is a big killer of the elderly. Get your flu vaccines, please.

But, we should also expect a lot of people hospitalized with COVID to be vaccinated old folks. Just because of the huge risk slope by age, which will still exist after vaccination.

Author(s): Mary Pat Campbell

Publication Date: 19 August 2021

Publication Site: STUMP at substack

Five truths about covid that defy our intuitions

Excerpt:

1. If a large share of hospitalised people are vaccinated, that’s a sign of success. It has been common to see headlines noting that a substantial minority of people who have been hospitalised or even killed by Covid have been fully vaccinated. These numbers suggest vaccine failure is alarmingly common. The fallacy only becomes clear at the logical extremes: before vaccines existed, everyone in hospital was unvaccinated; if vaccines were universal, then everybody in hospital would be vaccinated. Neither scenario tells us whether the vaccines work.

So try this. Imagine that 1 per cent of the unvaccinated population will end up in hospital with Covid over a given time period. In a city of a million people, that would be 10,000 hospital stays. Now let’s say that 950,000 people get fully vaccinated, that the vaccine is 95 per cent effective against hospitalisation, and that the vaccine doesn’t reduce transmission (although it does). Here’s the arithmetic: 500 of the 50,000 unvaccinated people end up in hospital. A total of 9,500 of the vaccinated people would be at risk of a hospital visit, but the vaccine saves all but 5 per cent of them. These unlucky 475 still go to hospital. The hospital contains 500 unvaccinated and 475 vaccinated people — almost half and half — which makes it seem as though the vaccine barely works. Yet when 95 per cent of people take a 95 per cent effective vaccine, hospital visits fall from 10,000 to fewer than 1,000.

Author(s): Tim Harford

Publication Date: 19 August 2021

Publication Site: TimHarford.com

CDC warns of a “significant decline” in vaccine effectiveness for some, prompting booster dose decision

Link: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/covid-vaccine-booster-shot-cdc-effectiveness/?mc_cid=7fce136b2d&mc_eid=983bcf5922

Excerpt:

New data being released Wednesday by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention warns of a “significant decline” in vaccine effectiveness against infection from COVID-19 in nursing home residents, as the highly contagious Delta variant of the virus causes a spike in hospitalizations among mostly unvaccinated Americans.

The release came as the Biden administration says it is preparing to offer booster shots for all Americans who got the Pfizer or Moderna vaccines, eight months after their second dose, beginning the week of September 20.

“Given this body of evidence, we are concerned that the current strong protection against severe infection, hospitalization and death could decrease in the months ahead, especially among those who are at higher risk or who were vaccinated earlier,” CDC Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky said at a briefing Wednesday.

Author(s): ALEXANDER TIN

Publication Date: 18 August 2021

Publication Site: CBS News

Pandemic of unvaccinated continues to rage as states set new COVID records

Link: https://arstechnica.com/science/2021/08/pandemic-of-unvaccinated-continues-to-rage-as-states-set-new-covid-records/?mc_cid=7fce136b2d&mc_eid=983bcf5922

Graphic:

Excerpt:

At least five states have exceeded their previous peaks of seven-day averages for new daily cases—Florida, Louisiana, Hawaii, Oregon, and Mississippi. Seven states have exceeded their most recent peaks in hospitalizations—Arkansas, Florida, Hawaii, Louisiana, Mississippi, Oregon, and Washington.

Florida in particular has been ablaze with COVID-19. The Sunshine State exceeded its previous record average of around 16,000 new daily cases, which was set in January. The state is now averaging just under 22,000, according to data reported by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. As for daily hospitalization tallies, Florida is currently at its all-time record of around 15,000, exceeding its previous highest peak of around 12,000 last July.

Federal health officials noted last week that shipments to Florida containing COVID-19 treatments, including monoclonal antibodies, increased eightfold over the past month. On Tuesday, the Florida Hospital Association reported that it soon expects 75 percent of hospitals in the state to reach critical staffing shortages.

Author(s): Beth Mole

Publication Date: 17 August 2021

Publication Site: Ars Technica

COVID and Simpson’s Paradox: Why So Many Vaccinated People are Among the Current Wave of Hospitalizations

Link: https://marypatcampbell.substack.com/p/covid-and-simpsons-paradox-why-so

Graphic:

Excerpt:

when you’ve got really steep differences between subpopulations and the subpopulations are of very different sizes, the overall population average will be very different from simply looking at the average of the two populations.

Basically:

– The base risk rates for each group are extremely different (3.9 per 100K for young, and 91.9 per 100K for old)
– The percentage each subpopulation makes up in the larger population is very different (67% young, 33% old)
– The vaccination rates are very different by population (76% young, 92% old)

Author(s): Mary Pat Campbell

Publication Date: 19 August 2021

Publication Site: STUMP at substack

Asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Link: https://www.pnas.org/content/118/34/e2109229118

Graphic:

Excerpt:

Asymptomatic infections have been widely reported for COVID-19. However, many studies do not distinguish between the presymptomatic stage and truly asymptomatic infections. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of COVID-19 literature reporting laboratory-confirmed infections to determine the burden of asymptomatic infections and removed index cases from our calculations to avoid conflation. By analyzing over 350 papers, we estimated that more than one-third of infections are truly asymptomatic. We found evidence of greater asymptomaticity in children compared with the elderly, and lower asymptomaticity among cases with comorbidities compared to cases with no underlying medical conditions. Greater asymptomaticity at younger ages suggests that heightened vigilance is needed among these individuals, to prevent spillover into the broader community.

Author(s): Pratha Sah, Meagan C. Fitzpatrick, Charlotte F. Zimmer, Elaheh Abdollahi, Lyndon Juden-Kelly, Seyed M. Moghadas, Burton H. Singer, Alison P. Galvani

Publication Date: 24 August 2021

Publication Site: PNAS

America’s Delta data problem

Link: https://www.axios.com/america-coronavirus-vaccines-delta-data-ababc99b-df6b-4ddb-b4b2-341733933a27.html

Excerpt:

The big picture: The Biden administration is ultimately trying to figure out how well-protected different demographics are against the virus, and for how long. From there, they can decide who should get booster shots.

But while the administration waits for more information, telling the public only that boosters aren’t necessary right now, drug companies and other countries are filling the data and communication void.

“Just think we live in a country which is incapable of telling us the percent vaccinated or unvaccinated who require hospitalization for covid. No less any more data about them. Or track breakthrough infections. Thanks @CDCgov,” tweeted Eric Topol, executive vice president of Scripps Research.

Author(s): Caitlin Owens

Publication Date: 9 August 2021

Publication Site: Axios

5 States Where COVID-19 Hospitalizations Are Surging

Link: https://www.thinkadvisor.com/2021/07/29/5-states-where-covid-19-hospitalizations-are-surging/

Graphic:

Excerpt:

Some U.S. states look as if they might be heading into a severe new wave of COVID-19.

Federal government charts illustrating trends in new case counts and hospitalization rates in those states are starting to head straight up.

Hospitalization rates may be a better indicator of outbreak severity than new case counts, because ups and downs in the number of people diagnosed with COVID-19 might reflect changes in how easy and cheap it is for people to get tested, rather than infection rates.

Hospitals, in contrast, are likely to admit people with COVID-19 only when those people are seriously ill.

Author(s): Allison Bell

Publication Date: 29 July 2021

Publication Site: Think Advisor

New York Times quashed COVID origins inquiry

Link: https://spectatorworld.com/topic/new-york-times-quashed-covid-origins-inquiry/

Excerpt:

Atop editor at the New York Times instructed Times staffers not to investigate the origins of COVID-19, two Times employees confirmed today.

‘In early 2020,’ a veteran Times employee tells me, ‘I suggested to a senior editor at the paper that we investigate the origins of COVID-19. I was told it was dangerous to run a piece about the origins of the coronavirus. There was resistance to running anything that could suggest that [COVID-19 was manmade or had leaked accidentally from a lab].’

….

In November 2019, it emerged that China Daily had failed to disclose to federal authorities millions of dollars in payments to US outlets including the Times and the Washington Post. In August 2020, the Times quietly scrubbed the China-funded advertorials from its website. Still, in October 2020, the Times ran an op-ed by Regina Ip, a member of Hong Kong’s Executive Council, justifying the repression of anti-government protests in the Hong Kong SAR.

Author(s): Dominic Green

Publication Date: 2 August 2021

Publication Site: The Spectator