Link: https://www.crowdforecastr.org/2021/05/11/uk-challenge/
Twitter thread of results: https://twitter.com/nikosbosse/status/1449043922794188807
Graphic:
Excerpt:
Let’s start with the data. The UK Forecasting Challenge spanned a long period of exponential growth as well as a sudden drop in cases at the end of July 3
Especially this peak was hard to predict and no forecaster really saw it coming. Red: aggregated forecast from different weeks, grey: individual participants. The second picture shows the range for which participants were 50% and 95% confident they would cover the true value
….
So what have we learned? – Human forecasts can be valuable to inform public health policy and can sometimes even beat computer models – Ensembles almost always perform better than individuals – Non-experts can be just as good as experts – recruiting participants is hard
Author(s): Nikos Bosse
Publication Date: Accessed 17 Oct 2021, twitter thread 15 Oct 21
Publication Site: Crowdforecastr