Nine States Began the Pandemic With Long-Term Deficits

Link: https://www.pewtrusts.org/en/research-and-analysis/articles/2022/12/16/nine-states-began-the-pandemic-with-long-term-deficits

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Twenty states recorded annual shortfalls in fiscal year 2020, when the coronavirus pandemic triggered a public health crisis, a two-month recession, and substantial volatility in states’ balance sheets. States can withstand periodic deficits, but long-running imbalances—such as those carried by nine states—can create an unsustainable fiscal situation by pushing off some past costs for operating government and providing services onto future taxpayers.

States are expected to balance their budgets every year. But that’s only part of the picture of how well revenue—composed predominantly of tax dollars and federal funds—matches spending across all state activities. A look beyond states’ budgets at their own financial reports provides a more comprehensive view of how public dollars are managed. In fiscal 2020, a historic plunge in tax revenue collections and a spike in spending demands were met with an initial influx of federal aid to combat the pandemic. The typical state’s total expenses and revenues grew faster than at any time since at least fiscal 2002, largely thanks to the unprecedented federal aid. But spending growth outpaced revenue growth in all but five states (Idaho, Maryland, Missouri, South Dakota, and Virginia). And 20 states recorded annual shortfalls—the most since 2010 and four times more than in fiscal 2019.

Despite the sudden increase in annual deficits, most states collected more than enough aggregate revenue to cover aggregate expenses over the long-term. But the nine states that had a 15-year deficit (New Jersey, Illinois, Connecticut, Hawaii, Massachusetts, Maryland, Kentucky, New York, and Delaware) —or a negative fiscal balance—carried forward deferred costs of past services, including debt and unfunded public employee retirement liabilities. Between 2006 and 2020, New Jersey accumulated the largest gap between its revenue and annual bills, taking in enough to cover just 91.9% of its expenses—the smallest percentage of any state. Meanwhile, Alaska collected 130.5%, yielding the largest surplus. The typical state’s revenue totaled 102.7% of its annual bills over the past 15 years.

Zooming out from a narrow focus on annual or biennial budgets—which may mask deficits as they allow for shifting the timing of when states receive cash or pay off bills to reach a balance—offers a big-picture look at whether state governments have lived within their means, or whether higher revenue or lower expenses may be necessary to bring a state into fiscal balance.

Author(s): Joanna Biernacka-Lievestro, Alexandre Fall

Publication Date: 16 Dec 2022

Publication Site: Pew

Report: Illinois overspending taxpayer money year after year

Link: https://www.thecentersquare.com/illinois/report-illinois-overspending-taxpayer-money-year-after-year/article_7bc5b8ba-8c84-11ed-a77d-a77c6a37c073.html?utm_source=thecentersquare.com&utm_campaign=%2Fnewsletters%2Flists%2Ft2%2Fillinois%2F&utm_medium=email&utm_content=headline

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An analysis by Pew Charitable Trusts shows that Illinois is one of only two states in the country with total tax revenue shortfalls exceeding 5% of total expenses, and the only ones with annual deficits in each of the past 15 years. The other state is New Jersey.

Pew state fiscal health manager Joanna Biernacka-Lievestro said Illinois is in select company.

“Nine states failed to collect enough revenue to cover their long-term expenses over the 15 years ending in fiscal 2020,” Biernacka-Lievestro said. “Secondly, Illinois was one of two states that struggled the most.” 

After New Jersey, Illinois had the largest deficit with aggregate revenue able to cover only 93.9% of aggregate expenses. In comparison, Indiana and Iowa were both close to 104%. Alaska collected 103.5%, yielding the largest surplus.

Author(s): Kevin Bessler

Publication Date: 4 Jan 2023

Publication Site: The Center Square

ILLINOIS SPENT 6% MORE THAN IT TOOK IN FOR 15 YEARS, SO COVID-19 HIT IT HARDER

Link: https://www.illinoispolicy.org/illinois-spent-6-more-than-it-took-in-for-15-years-so-covid-19-hit-it-harder/

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From 2005-2019, Illinois revenues totaled just 94% of expenses. The state ran deficits in each of the 15 years prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. Only New Jersey overspent more.

Illinois was one of only eight states to see spending outpace its revenues from 2005-2019, leaving it fiscally ill-prepared to deal with the tumultuous COVID-19 pandemic, according to new data from The Pew Charitable Trusts.

Illinois ranked No. 2 for overspending.

According to the report, Illinois took in just 94.1% of the revenues it needed to cover its expenses from 2005-2019. That number was second worst in the nation, coming in just ahead of similarly troubled New Jersey.

Author(s): Justin Carlson

Publication Date: 12 Jan 2022

Publication Site: Illinois Policy Institute

Bidenomics Takes Root in Europe’s Economically Fragile South

Link: https://www.wsj.com/articles/bidenomics-takes-root-in-europes-economically-fragile-south-11620039617

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Since the 1990s, Italian leaders have tried to overhaul the sclerotic economy while also running tight budgets. Mr. Draghi is the first in decades who can deploy massive fiscal firepower to help.

Italy’s economy has rarely grown by more than 1% annually over the past quarter-century. The economy has never fully recovered from the global financial crisis and subsequent eurozone crisis, and slumped by another 9% in 2020 amid the pandemic and strict lockdowns.

Germany, France and other EU countries backed the recovery fund mainly for fear that Italy and Southern Europe could get stuck in another deep economic slump that once again tests the cohesion and survival of the eurozone.

….

Most of Greece’s debt is in bailout loans from the rest of the eurozone, with no repayments due for many years, making another Greek debt crisis unlikely for a long time.

Author(s): Giovanni Legorano

Publication Date: 3 May 2021

Publication Site: Wall Street Journal

In Democrats’ progressive paradise, borrowing is free, spending pays for itself, and interest rates never rise

Link: https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2021/03/03/democrats-stimulus-spending-inflation/

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To hear it from liberal economists, progressive activists and Democratic politicians, there is no longer any limit to how much money government can borrow and spend and print.

In this new economy, we no longer have to worry that stock prices might climb so high, or companies take on so much debt, that a financial crisis might ensue. In this world without trade-offs, we can shut down the fossil fuel industry and transition to a zero-carbon economy without any risk to employment and economic growth. Nor is there any amount of infrastructure investment that could possibly exceed the capacity of the construction industry to absorb it.

Rest assured that the economy won’t miss a beat no matter how far or fast the minimum wage is raised. And whatever benefits are required by the always struggling middle class can be financed by raising taxes on big corporations and the undeserving rich.

Author(s): Steven Pearlstein

Publication Date: 3 March 2021

Publication Site: Washington Post

Tony Evers’ budget takes nearly $2 billion chunk out of state’s improving financial situation

Link: https://madison.com/wsj/news/local/govt-and-politics/tony-evers-budget-takes-nearly-2-billion-chunk-out-of-states-improving-financial-situation/article_8afbb2a3-a23e-5708-ac8f-cba55bf50081.html

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Gov. Tony Evers’ biennial budget proposal fulfills many Democratic priorities with big spending increases, but Republicans have raised concern that the $91 billion proposal would almost entirely drain the state’s coffers — by close to $2 billion — and leave Wisconsin in a more precarious financial position down the road.

The state is projected to have a nearly $2 billion surplus in its general fund by the end of the year, but Evers’ projected budget, which includes $1.6 billion in new tax revenue from marijuana, big manufacturers and the wealthy, still reduces that to around $143 million by mid-2023.

“It’s not necessarily inappropriate to draw down a big chunk of your reserves when you’re facing a once-in-100-years pandemic,” Wisconsin Policy Forum research director Jason Stein said. “You don’t have the reserves just to put them on a wall and admire them, but at the same time … you have to think about what’s going to be sustainable for the state budget because some of these challenges are not just going to evaporate either.”

Author(s): Mitchell Schmidt | Wisconsin State Journal , Riley Vetterkind | Wisconsin State Journal

Publication Date: 21 February 2021

Publication Site: Wisconsin State Journal

Deficits Don’t Matter—Until They Do

Link: https://www.city-journal.org/deficits-dont-matter-until-they-do

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The big misunderstanding here is that, though structural changes are certainly persistent and less responsive to policy, they are not permanent. Conditions are always changing. Productivity transforms economies, and so do shifting age structures and demographics. Foreigners are already losing their appetite for U.S. debt; much of it is now bought by the Fed or by banks required to hold it for regulatory reasons. Thus prices may not be as revealing as we think.

And we can’t be sure that debt monetization won’t unleash inflation or higher interest rates. The Fed buys bonds from the banks and credits them with reserves. Eventually banks may want to spend their reserves, and the Fed will need to sell some bonds—which could increase interest rates, or increase inflation, or both. The world could also discover a new safe asset, like German stocks. For many years, gold was considered the only safe asset, and it was unimaginable that a fiat currency could be safe.

Structural changes happen more often and much faster than people realize. We could come out of the pandemic in a new regime of less trade and more reliance on tech that could change debt and price dynamics in ways that we don’t yet understand.

Author(s): Allison Schrager

Publication Date: 12 February 2021

Publication Site: City Journal

A public option for health insurance could be a disaster, especially in times of crisis

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Basic assumptions about the long-term costs of a public option are flawed. Research we have done shows that a public option will mean soaring deficits and debts because politicians in Washington will eventually succumb to political pressure both to subsidize enrollee premiums and to pay doctors and hospitals closer to what they are paid by private insurance rather than by existing government programs like Medicare and Medicaid. According to our calculations, the public option would add $800 billion to deficits in the first 10 years and increase the federal debt by more than 30% of the gross domestic product by 2050 — the equivalent of $6 trillion in today’s economy.

The effects on the budget are even worse when the economy suffers or if health costs unexpectedly rise. How much worse? With support from the Partnership for America’s Health Care Future — a coalition of leading health care providers, insurers, biopharmaceutical companies and employers that oppose one-size-fits-all health care — we looked at a few ways policymakers might adjust the public option to respond to future economic shocks and the impact these changes would have on long-term deficits and debt.

Author(s): Lanhee J. Chen, Tom Church, and Daniel L. Heil

Publication Date: 11 February 2021

Publication Site: Stat News