Tag: housing bubble

NAHB Housing Sentiment and Present Conditions Crash to Covid-19 Lows

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://mishtalk.com/economics/nahb-housing-sentiment-and-present-conditions-crash-to-covid-19-lows

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Excerpt:

Please consider the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) for December 2022.

The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) is based on a monthly survey of NAHB members designed to take the pulse of the single-family housing market. The survey asks respondents to rate market conditions for the sale of new homes at the present time and in the next six months as well as the traffic of prospective buyers of new homes.

Bloomberg Econoday Consensus Outlook

“Spiraling downward, the housing market index has missed Econoday’s consensus every month this year. November’s 33 was 3 points short of the consensus. December’s consensus is 34.“

December’s 31 was also 3 points lower than consensus and 1 point lower than the entire consensus range of 32-35.

Well done! Perfection for 12 months is very difficult. 

Author(s): Mike Shedlock

Publication Date: 19 Dec 2022

Publication Site: Mish Talk

The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in America, May Update: Mania at the Eve of Holy-Moly Mortgage Rates

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://wolfstreet.com/2022/05/31/the-most-splendid-housing-bubbles-in-america-may-update-mania-at-the-eve-of-holy-moly-mortgage-rates/

Graphic:

Excerpt:

The home price data released today by the S&P CoreLogic Home Price Index represents the three-month average of closed home sales that were entered into public records in January, February, and March, reflecting deals that were agreed to a few weeks earlier, roughly in December, January, and February, funded with mortgages that were pre-approved before then, and had rate locks from when they were pre-approved.

These rate locks were based on interest rates in effect roughly from November into February, when the average 30-year fixed rate ranged from 3.2% to 4.2%, with the majority of the time being below 3.8% (green box in the chart). These are the rates that funded home purchases reflected in today’s home price index.

There have already been numerous indicators that the markets for existing home sales and new home sales have run into difficulties at the current holy-moly mortgage rates of over 5%, including sharply lower sales volume and rising inventories in existing homes and falling sales and record spiking inventories in new houses.

Author(s): Wolf Richter

Publication Date: 31 May 2022

Publication Site: Wolf Street