The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) is based on a monthly survey of NAHB members designed to take the pulse of the single-family housing market. The survey asks respondents to rate market conditions for the sale of new homes at the present time and in the next six months as well as the traffic of prospective buyers of new homes.
Bloomberg Econoday Consensus Outlook
“Spiraling downward, the housing market index has missed Econoday’s consensus every month this year. November’s 33 was 3 points short of the consensus. December’s consensus is 34.“
December’s 31 was also 3 points lower than consensus and 1 point lower than the entire consensus range of 32-35.
Well done! Perfection for 12 months is very difficult.
The home price data released today by the S&P CoreLogic Home Price Index represents the three-month average of closed home sales that were entered into public records in January, February, and March, reflecting deals that were agreed to a few weeks earlier, roughly in December, January, and February, funded with mortgages that were pre-approved before then, and had rate locks from when they were pre-approved.
These rate locks were based on interest rates in effect roughly from November into February, when the average 30-year fixed rate ranged from 3.2% to 4.2%, with the majority of the time being below 3.8% (green box in the chart). These are the rates that funded home purchases reflected in today’s home price index.