Tag: inflation

FTC orders Walmart, Amazon, Kroger and more to turn over information on empty shelves, high prices

Mary Pat Campbell

Link:https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/shopping/2021/11/29/supply-chain-ftc-investigation-walmart-amazon-prices/8799724002/

Excerpt:

The Federal Trade Commission said Monday that it is investigating the causes behind ongoing supply chain disruptions and how they are “causing serious and ongoing hardships for consumers and harming competition in the U.S. economy.”

The FTC said it is ordering Walmart, Amazon, Kroger, other large wholesalers and suppliers including Procter & Gamble Co., Tyson Foods and Kraft Heinz Co. “to turn over information to help study causes of empty shelves and sky-high prices.”

Orders also are being sent to C&S Wholesale Grocers, Inc., Associated Wholesale Grocers, Inc. and McLane Co, Inc.

Author(s): Kelly Tyko

Publication Date: 29 Nov 2021

Publication Site: USA Today

Inflation Surge Whips Up Market Froth

Mary Pat Campbell

Link:https://www.wsj.com/articles/inflation-surge-whips-up-market-froth-11636817049

Excerpt:

Last week, real yields, which take into account the corrosive effects of inflation, hit some of their lowest levels on record. One measure of real yields, 10-year Treasury inflation-protected securities, fell to minus 1.2%, according to Tradeweb. That is the lowest on record, according to data going back to February 2003.

In essence, with real yields negative, the purchasing power of money invested will decline over the lifetime of those bonds.

Real yields have fallen because of colliding factors. These include the highest inflation rate in over three decades combined with nominal bond yields that have risen only modestly as central banks hold back from raising rates.

The prospect of negative returns on super safe inflation-protected bonds has pushed investors to buy riskier assets.

Author(s): Anna Hirtenstein

Publication Date: 14 Nov 2021

Publication Site: Wall Street Journal

High Inflation Creates Tax Winners and Losers. What Are You?

Mary Pat Campbell

Link:https://www.wsj.com/articles/high-inflation-creates-tax-winners-and-losers-what-are-you-11634981401

Excerpt:

As inflation trends near a 13-year high, middle-income workers will benefit from automatic annual adjustments to tax provisions such as the standard deduction for income taxes. Some other provisions are frozen in time, stuck to specific dollar amounts from decades ago. Those provisions tend to pinch higher-income households.

For example, the standard deduction for married couples is likely to rise to $25,900 from $25,100, according to Wolters Kluwer NV, which provides tax services to accountants and others. As nominal wages and prices rise, that adjustment will shield more money from taxation and block inflation — currently above 5% on an unadjusted annual rate — from causing a sharp tax increase.

Some home sellers, however, will be squeezed because married couples can exclude up to $500,000 in gains from capital-gains taxes. That figure hasn’t changed since a 1997 law, while the median home sale price has more than doubled since then.

Author(s):Richard Rubin

Publication Date:23 Oct 2021

Publication Site:WSJ

Bond Yields Have Been On a Tear Since August 4. What’s Going On?

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://mishtalk.com/economics/bond-yields-have-been-on-a-tear-since-august-4-whats-going-on

Graphic:

Excerpt:

Five Factors Spooking the Bond Market and Impact

Debt Ceiling Battle: Short Term, Low Impact

Supply Chain Disruptions: Medium Term, Medium Impact

Trade Deficit: Long Term, Low-to-Medium Impact

Biden’s Build Back Better Spending Plans: Long Term, High Impact

Wage Spiral: Long Term, High Impact

Author(s): Mike Shedlock

Publication Date: 8 Oct 2021

Publication Site: Mish Talk

MishTalk TV Episode #1: Is Inflation Transitory or Not?

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://mishtalk.com/economics/mishtalk-tv-episode-1-is-inflation-transitory-or-not

Excerpt:

The great debate is whether or not inflation is transitory. 

I discuss the pros and cons with Chris Temple at the National Investor. 

Chris is primarily in the “not transitory” camp, especially in regards to energy.

I discuss the “it is transitory” case. 

In  my view, much depends on what Congress does or doesn’t do and I do not think the matter is settled, depending of course on the duration of “transitory”.

Author(s): Mike Shedlock, Chris Temple

Publication Date: 20 Sept 2021

Publication Site: Mish Talk

Social Security COLA for 2022 Estimated Near 6%

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.thinkadvisor.com/2021/09/14/social-security-cola-estimate-for-2022-dropped-to-6-to-6-1/

Excerpt:

The annual cost-of-living adjustment, or COLA, for Social Security benefits in 2022 — usually announced in October — could be 6% to 6.1%, the highest since 1983, based on Tuesday’s Consumer Price Index announcement, according to Social Security and Medicare policy analyst Mary Johnson of The Senior Citizens League, who estimated the 2022 COLA would be 6.2% a month ago.

The latest estimate, which is based on inflation of 0.3% in August, is especially significant as next year’s COLA will be calculated on the average of third-quarter, or July, August and September, CPI data.

…..

The consumer price index for all urban consumers in August rose 5.3% over the past 12 months, and 0.3% from the previous month, the Labor Department reported Tuesday. (The CPI includes food and energy.)

Author(s): Ginger Szala

Publication Date: 14 Sept 2021

Publication Site: Think Advisor

US bond funds rake in more cash despite inflation fears

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.ft.com/content/787d1be6-e7d9-43a2-b77c-07916fe19f3e

Graphic:

Excerpt:

Analysts attributed the popularity of bond funds — which do not include money-market holdings — to concerns about lofty stock valuations and an ageing population’s need for steady income during retirement.

“Financial advisers follow asset allocation models and portfolio rebalancing and demographics are strong trends,” said Shelly Antoniewicz, ICI senior director of financial and industry research. “The cumulative flow to bond funds lines up nicely with the percentage of the population over 65 years.”

Author(s): Michael Mackenzie

Publication Date: 6 July 2021

Publication Site: Financial Times

Iran Pensioners Protest Yet Again

Mary Pat Campbell
Iran Pensioners Protest Yet Again

Excerpt:

The 2020 census reported that there are some 18 million pensioners in Iran, who form part of the 96% of the population who live under the poverty line. Even the regime’s own statistics advise that over 75% of pensioners cannot afford the most basic goods, like food and shelter. This is because the average pension is 25 million rials per month even though some parts of the country have a poverty rate of 100 million rials after the economic crisis caused by the pandemic.

Author(s): Mostafa Aslani

Publication Date: 6 July 2021

Publication Site: Iran News Update

Not Even Bond Traders Can Predict the Future

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-06-18/bond-traders-can-t-predict-inflation-any-better-than-anyone-else

Graphic:

Excerpt:

Historically, bond yields have not been very good at predicting inflation.

In the last 70 years, bond yields rarely rose ahead of inflation, going up only after inflation takes hold.  One study indicated that past inflation trends were a better predictor of bond rates than what future inflation turned out to be.

Does this mean bond traders are wrong? Not necessarily. It may just reflect that inflation is unpredictable and bond traders don’t know any more about the future than the rest of us. All they have is the past data and current prices to make their predictions, too. So when inflation suddenly spikes — as it has in the past — bond traders are as surprised as everyone else.

Author(s): Allison Schrager

Publication Date: 18 June 2021

Publication Site: Bloomberg

Recent inflation figures should not be ignored

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/559121-recent-inflation-figures-should-not-be-ignored

Excerpt:

The sharp increase in consumer prices this Spring may be a blip but may also be a sign that inflation is returning as a chronic problem. For those of us who can accurately recall the 1970s economy, it is a frightening prospect. Everyone else would benefit from reading contemporaneous news coverage.

Recent events call into question pronouncements of the leading Modern Monetary Theorists who thought that the U.S. could sustain much larger deficits without triggering major hikes in the cost of living. Instead, it appears that the traditional rules of public finance still hold: deficit spending financed by Federal Reserve money creation is inflationary.

Analogies between today’s situation and the 1970s are not quite on target. By the early 70s, inflation was well underway. Instead, we should be drawing lessons from the year 1965, when price inflation began to take off. Prior to that year, inflation seemed to be under control with annual CPI growth ranging from 1.1 percent to 1.5 percent annually between 1960 and 1964 — not unlike the years prior to this one.

Author(s): Marc Joffe

Publication Date: 18 June 2021

Publication Site: The Hill

A More Hawkish Federal Reserve — and Federal Trade Commission

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.nationalreview.com/2021/06/a-more-hawkish-federal-reserve-and-federal-trade-commission/

Excerpt:

For the first time since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Federal Reserve has bucked investor expectations and taken a more hawkish policy stance. After months of projecting near-zero interest rates through 2023, yesterday the Federal Open Market Committee forecast two rate hikes by the end of 2023. With consumer prices and spending rising in tandem of late, the revised projections are a tacit admission that recent inflation may not be as transitory as the Fed has maintained.

“Is there a risk that inflation will be higher than we think? Yes,” said chair Jay Powell. The ten-year Treasury yield increased roughly 80 basis points to 1.57 percent after the press conference.

But the Fed’s revised policy outlook was not matched by an increased medium-term inflation forecast. The central bank continues to expect an average inflation rate of 2.1 percent over the next three years. Goldman Sachs’s macro researchers interpret that to mean that “the FOMC sees the 2021 inflation overshoot, which will bring the average inflation rate since the recession began above 2 percent, as largely sufficient to accomplish its averaging goal.”

Ever since the Fed adopted an average inflation target last summer, markets have been left guessing as to the time horizon over which the Fed would target 2 percent. Yesterday’s projections suggest it will be two to three years.

Author(s):DANIEL TENREIRO

Publication Date: 17 June

Publication Site: National Review

A Made-in-Washington Inflation Spike

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-made-in-washington-inflation-spike-11623362377?mod=opinion_lead_pos1

Excerpt:

The Labor Department’s consumer price index surged 5% year-over-year in May, the largest increase since August 2008 when oil was $140 a barrel. But don’t worry, Americans. The Federal Reserve says inflation is “transitory” and that it has the tools to control prices if they start to spiral out of control. Let us pray.

Nobody should be surprised that prices are increasing everywhere from the grocery store to the car dealership. Demand is soaring as the pandemic recedes while supply constraints linger, especially in labor and transportation. As always, this is a price shock largely made by government. Congress has shovelled out trillions of dollars in transfer payments over the past year, and the Fed has rates at zero while the economy may be growing at a 10% annual rate.

The personal savings rate in April was 14.9%, double what it was before the pandemic. Record low mortgage interest rates have enabled homeowners to lower their monthly payments to burn more cash on other things. Congress’s $300 unemployment bonus and other welfare payments for not working have contributed to an enormous worker shortage, which is magnifying supply shortages.

All of this is showing up in higher prices. Over the last 12 months, core inflation excluding food and energy is up 3.8% and much more for used cars (29.7%), airline fares (24.1%), jewelry (14.7%), bikes (10.1%) and footwear (7.1%). Commodity prices from oil to copper to lumber have surged. Higher lumber prices are adding $36,000 to the price of a new home.

Author(s): Editorial Board

Publication Date: 10 June 2021

Publication Site: WSJ