Tag: Jordan Campbell

Unfunded public pension liabilities are forecast to rise to $1.3 trillion in 2022

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://reason.org/data-visualization/2022-public-pension-forecaster/

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According to forecasting by Reason Foundation’s Pension Integrity Project, when the fiscal year 2022 pension financial reports roll in, the unfunded liabilities of the 118 state public pension plans are expected to again exceed $1 trillion in 2022. After a record-breaking year of investment returns in 2021, which helped reduce a lot of longstanding pension debt, the experience of public pension assets has swung drastically in the other direction over the last 12 months. Early indicators point to investment returns averaging around -6% for the 2022 fiscal year, which ended on June 30, 2022, for many public pension systems.

Based on a -6% return for fiscal 2022, the aggregate unfunded liability of state-run public pension plans will be $1.3 trillion, up from $783 billion in 2021, the Pension Integrity Project finds. With a -6% return in 2022, the aggregate funded ratio for these state pension plans would fall from 85% funded in 2021 to 75% funded in 2022. 

Author(s): Truong Bui, Jordan Campbell, Zachary Christensen

Publication Date: 14 July 2022

Publication Site: Reason

Debtor Nation

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://reason.org/debtor-nation/

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Organizations incur long-term financial obligations in forms other than bonds and the U.S. federal government is no exception. Some common types of financial obligations include pension and retiree health care costs for veterans, civilian federal employees, and the general public (through Social Security and Medicare benefit commitments). Looking at the federal government’s balance sheet as of 2021, public holdings of U.S. Treasury securities make up less than one-quarter of total federal liabilities. Unfunded entitlements, like Medicare and Social Security, account for the most at 59% of obligations.

Overall federal obligations have now surpassed $300,000 per American. While substantial in their own right, the debt obligations of state and local governments across the country are dwarfed by the various categories of federal debt.

Author(s): Jordan Campbell, Marc Joffe

Publication Date: 16 May 2022

Publication Site: Reason

Suggested reforms for Pennsylvania’s Public School Employees’ Retirement System

Mary Pat Campbell

Link:https://reason.org/commentary/suggested-reforms-for-the-pennsylvania-teacher-pension-system/?utm_medium=email

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Despite realizing excellent investment returns in 2021, industry capital market forecasts continue to suggest persistently volatile near-term investment returns that stand to only add to over $1 trillion in current pension funding shortfalls. Most near-term investment outlooks we’ve seen from pension boards across the country predict anywhere from a 6.0 percent-6.3 percent return over the next 10 years. PSERS’ assumed rate of return was recently lowered and currently sits at 7 percent.*

PSERS’s investment outlook is similar to these broad projections. Figures 1 and 2 present the results of the Monte Carlo simulation analysis developed by the Pension Integrity Project. This iterative analysis uses 10,000 simulations of PSERS’s asset performance over 20 years, considering expected returns and volatilities of plan assets, to generate both probabilities of hitting certain returns and expected return distributions.

These findings suggest that PSERS is not likely to achieve even a 6 percent average return over the next 10-15 years—much less its current assumed return of 7 percent. This suggests there is a high probability that the public pension plan’s unfunded liabilities could get worse, not better, in the near-to-mid term. This underperformance—relative to the plan’s own return rate assumptions—will make the system’s long-term solvency challenges even larger.

Author(s): Jordan Campbell, Ryan Frost

Publication Date: 11 Oct 2021

Publication Site: Reason

Public Pension Plans Need to Put a Year of Good Investment Returns In Perspective

Mary Pat Campbell
Public Pension Plans Need to Put a Year of Good Investment Returns In Perspective

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For the last 20 years, state and local pension plans’ assumed rates of return have been far too optimistic. The distributions of average (geometric mean) assumed investment returns and actual returns from 2001 to 2020 demonstrate this. The figure below shows the distribution of the average assumed investment return rate versus actual investment returns for 200 of the largest state and local pension plans in the United States. The median assumed rate of return over the last 20 years was 7.7 percent per year, the median actual rate of investment return for these public pension plans was 5.7 percent.

This two percent difference helps to explain the nearly 30 percent drop in the average pension plan funded ratio over the same period. In recent years, many pension plans lowered their assumed rates of return.

Author(s): Truong Bui, Jordan Campbell

Publication Date: 30 June 2021

Publication Site: Reason Foundation

The Relationship Between Public Pension Investments and Declining Bond Yields

Mary Pat Campbell
The Relationship Between Public Pension Investments and Declining Bond Yields

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The visualizations display how private equity investments have grown in popularity. Private equity allocations are now the third-largest asset class for public pension plans, growing from 3.62 of nationwide plan portfolios in 2001 to 9.15 percent in 2019.

Portfolio managers should be free to pursue whatever investment philosophies they believe are in the best long-run interests of their plan members. However, policymakers, pension plan members, and taxpayers should be aware of these trends and the risks that come with them. Pension systems and lawmakers need to address the growing risk of volatility in ways that maintain a plan’s resiliency to unpredictable market factors. Also, plan stakeholders should be wary of a situation where the tail wags the dog—with pension systems swapping safety for risk and volatility as they chase outdated and overly optimistic investment return assumptions.

Author(s): Jordan Campbell

Publication Date: 25 February 2021

Publication Site: Reason

Public Pension Plans’ Funded Ratios Have Been Declining for Years

Mary Pat Campbell
Public Pension Plans’ Funded Ratios Have Been Declining for Years

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Over time, changes in a pension plan’s funded ratio, also referred to as a pension’s funded status, can show the rate at which the plan’s debt is growing.

In 2001, West Virginia was the only state where public pension plans had an aggregate funded ratio of less than 60 percent. However, 18 years later, in 2019, nine states faced aggregate funded ratios below 60 percent.

In that same time period, the number of states with funded ratios below 70 percent (but above 60 percent) grew from three to 14. Together, these numbers show that, as of 2019, 23 states had less than 70 percent of the assets on hand that they need to be able to pay for promised future retirement benefits.

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Author: Jordan Campbell

Publication Date: 29 January 2021

Publication Site: Reason