2022 Predictions

Link: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/2022-predictions-max-rudolph/

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Regional conflicts are heating up around the world. Resource needs will accelerate the trend. Fresh water in the Himalayas provide multiple countries who have nuclear arsenals. Oil and rare earth metals could also trigger a war. Climatic events are happening more often, so the cost takes money away from solutions while making the goals seem more obvious.

….

Resource depletion has no recommended debit treatment from accountants, but attribution analysis is going to do the work after the fact and charge companies for their past practices through the court system. I assume this is how the asbestos risk played out but I will need to learn more about similar historical events as these events play out. How should this enter your thought process as an investor? In 2021 I wrote 4 papers about climate; Climate System, Integrated Assessment Models, Impact of Climate Change on Investors and Municipalities and Climate Change. They are part of the SOA’s Environmental Risk Series. The impact of climate on investors will continue to evolve for many years. One topic of interest to me is how TCFD (disclosures) will play out – we could see “bad” investments like oil companies, gun makers and cigarette companies become privately owned. This would make it harder to apply peer pressure so is an important reminder to be careful what you wish for!

Author(s): Max Rudolph

Publication Date: 16 Jan 2022

Publication Site: LinkedIn

Fermat’s Library – Japanese Banking Numerals

Link: https://www.linkedin.com/posts/fermatslibrary_japanese-contains-a-separate-set-of-numerals-activity-6888483726783717376-O8n4

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Japanese contains a separate set of numerals used in legal and financial documents to curb fraud by preventing someone from adding strokes to previously written numbers (e.g. turning a 1 into a 2, or changing 3 to a 5).

Author(s): Fermat’s Library

Publication Date: 17 Jan 2022

Publication Site: LinkedIn

Have Fun With Approximations!

Link: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/have-fun-approximations-mary-pat-campbell/

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Pdf: https://drive.google.com/file/d/0ByabEDuWaN6FNmZhTDBYeEVrNVE/view?resourcekey=0-U4GI2_9zn4UQdWza1bq95w

Excerpt:

In the pre-computer days, people used these approximations due to having to do all calculations by hand or with the help of tables. Of course, many approximations are done by computers themselves — the way computers calculate functions such as sine() and exp() involves approaches like Taylor series expansions.

The specific approximation techniques I try (1 “exact” and 6 different approximation… including the final ones where I put approximations within approximations just because I can) are not important. But the concept that you should know how to try out and test approximation approaches in case you need them is important for those doing numerical computing.

Author(s): Mary Pat Campbell

Publication Date: 3 February 2016 (updated for links 2021)

Publication Site: LinkedIn, CompAct, Society of Actuaries

Ranking of COVID-19 among the leading causes of mortality this week, assuming uniform deaths of non-COVID causes throughout the year

Link: https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:share:6768145136149913600/

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1 – COVID-19 2,728
2 – Ischemic heart disease 1,945
3 – Stroke 1,294
4 – Alzheimer’s disease and other dementias 938
5- Tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer 711
6 – Hypertensive heart disease 542
7 – Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease 540
8 – Colon and rectum cancer 478
9 – Diabetes mellitus 415
10 – Chronic kidney disease 318

Author(s): Federica Gazzelloni

Publication Date: 18 February 2021

Publication Site: LinkedIn