Once per calendar quarter, the state of Michigan conducts a Consensus Revenue Estimating Conference that provides updates on both the national and state economies and the state’s fiscal outlook. The May conference each year is especially significant because it sets the official revenue targets for the next fiscal year’s state budget.
The May meeting packet contained a broad range of data points, but a few jumped out.
Another chart broke down the components of personal income. Over the previous four quarters, personal income was nearly $3,000 higher than pre-pandemic forecasts had expected. However, employee compensation actually declined by about half that amount. The entire increase is the result of the 53 percent increase in federal transfer payments that have floated U.S. households over the past year.
Author(s): DAVID GUENTHNER
Publication Date: 5 June 2021
Publication Site: The Hill
One of the most important assumptions built into pensions is the guess at how much investments will grow over time. If investments provide high returns, then lawmakers don’t need to set aside as much money today to pay for pensions to be paid out in the future. If investments do not return as much as assumed, a gap develops between what has been promised and what has been saved. The bills cap the rate at which administrators can assume their investments will grow, allowing them to be no more risky than current policy allows. They also let administrators use less risky assumptions if they think it is prudent.
This is a smart approach. Much of the current pension debt exists because administrators overestimated investment returns. Taxpayers now owe more to the pensioners than they do to the lenders and bondholders who willingly lent the state money. Putting a cap on the assumptions administrators make can prevent future pension debt.
Author(s): James M. Hohman
Publication Date: 1 March 2021
Publication Site: Mackinac Center for Public Policy