Tag: Matt Grossman

Real Strains Inside the BLS Made It Vulnerable to Trump’s Accusations

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.wsj.com/economy/real-strains-inside-the-bls-made-it-vulnerable-to-trumps-accusations-52857f36?st=J4tV7k&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

Graphic:

Excerpt:

At the end of each month, the BLS uses the data it has on hand to make a first estimate. Then it updates that estimate in each of the following two months, based on late replies and a revised seasonal adjustment.

If the employers replying late happen to give different information from the first batch, as happened this summer, big revisions are likely. For example, Friday’s data showed that in May and June, there were about 109,000 fewer jobs for educators at state and local governments than previously thought. Late-responding schools were responsible for the bulk of that revision, said Omair Sharif, founder of analytics firm Inflation Insights.

“The decline in response rates for the initial release, that’s just going to make the range of revisions larger,” said Jonathan Pingle, an economist at UBS. “They’re getting a significantly larger amount of incremental information after the initial deadline.”

A year ago, when he was running for his second term, Trump was enraged by a different BLS revisions process—a twice-a-year benchmarking that reconciles the monthly figures with a comprehensive set of state-level data that, in theory, includes just about every employer in the country. Using this bigger data set gives the BLS a direct look at the number of companies that have been founded and have gone out of business, a blind spot in the bureau’s month-to-month data.

Author(s): Matt Grossman

Publication Date: 4 Aug 2025

Publication Site: WSJ

Fitch Downgrades U.S. Credit Rating

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.wsj.com/articles/fitch-downgrades-u-s-credit-rating-56c73b89?mod=hp_lead_pos1

Excerpt:

Fitch Ratings downgraded the U.S. government’s credit rating weeks after President Biden and congressional Republicans came to the brink of a historic default, warning about the growing debt burden and political dysfunction in Washington.

The downgrade, the first by a major ratings firm in more than a decade, is evidence that increasingly frequent political skirmishes over the U.S. government’s finances are clouding the outlook for the $25 trillion global market for Treasurys. Fitch’s rating on the U.S. now stands at “AA+”, or one notch below the top “AAA” grade.

….

Few investors believe that Fitch’s downgrade will immediately challenge that role. Still, it is the first time a ratings firm lowered its headline assessment of the U.S. government’s propensity to pay its bills on time since Standard & Poor’s in 2011 lowered its rating one notch below the top grade. That decision followed another tense debt-ceiling standoff in Congress.

Moody’s, the other member of the three big U.S. ratings firms, continues to give the U.S. its strongest assessment.

Fitch said Tuesday that the downgrade reflects an “erosion of governance” in the U.S. relative to other top-tier economies over the last two decades.

“The repeated debt-limit political standoffs and last-minute resolutions have eroded confidence in fiscal management,” Fitch said.

Author(s): Matt Grossman and Andrew Duehren

Publication Date: 1 Aug 2023

Publication Site: WSJ