No Hope In Sight For Chicago’s Worst-In-The-Nation Pension Plans

Link:https://www.forbes.com/sites/ebauer/2023/08/01/no-hope-in-sight-for-chicagos-worst-in-the-nation-pension-plans/?sh=4fd6218f24c2

Excerpt:

Back on July 18, the Equable Institute released the 2023 version of its annual State of Pensions report, which means that, yes, it’s time for another check-in on these infamously-poorly-funded pension plans. Among the wealth of tables is a list of the best and worst-funded of the 58 local pension plans studied, and, yes, you guessed it, the bottom five spots are Chicago plans, with the bottom three at levels far below all others:

  • Municipal employees, 21% funded,
  • Chicago police, 21.8% funded, and
  • Chicago fire, 18.8% funded.

Combined with the Chicago Laborers’ pension fund, with a 41% funded status, the pensions for which the city bears a direct responsibility have a total pension debt on a market value of assets basis of $35 billion. (This data is from the actual reports*, released in May, which doesn’t match the Equable report precisely.) Spot fifth-worst is taken up by the Chicago Teachers, at 42.4% funded, and the first non-Chicago system in their list, Dallas Police & Fire at 45.2%, is twice as well funded, percentage-point-wise, as the Terrible Trio.

…..

What’s more, Ralph Martire and his Center for Tax and Budget Accountability continue to promote what he calls “reamortization” as a solution to the problem, both through an April Chicago Sun Times commentary and through the release of a report, “Understanding – and Resolving Illinois’ Pension Funding Challenges” (which is an update of a prior proposal). This proposal, which is directed at Illinois pensions but is clearly meant based on other comments to be an all-purpose fix, sounds innocuous, as merely a sort of “refinancing” as one might with a mortgage, but it’s really much more as he proposes to

  • Reduce the funded status target from 90% to 80%, based on the claim that the GAO deems this funded status to be the right target for a “healthy” plan (whether he deliberately misleads or not, he is wrong here, the National Association of State Retirement Administrators or NASRA clearly explained more than a decade ago that 100% funding is always the right target and the only significance of an 80% level is that private sector pension law requires plans funded less than 80% to take immediate corrective action rather than have a long-term funding schedule, and the American Academy of Actuaries more explicitly calls this a “myth”);
  • Issue large sums of Pension Obligation Bonds, which were questionable already when they first began promoting this but are now a terrible idea with our current high bond rates, all the more so for a low-credit-rating city such as Chicago; and
  • Move contributions from last day of the fiscal year to the first day, which he argues would be a gain of a year’s investment return while forgetting that it requires the city to have this money on Day 1 and forgo the other uses it would have.

Author(s): Elizabeth Bauer

Publication Date: 1 Aug 2023

Publication Site: Forbes

Illinois’ budget problems won’t be fixed without change in revenue structure

Link: https://www.dailyherald.com/discuss/20210212/illinois-budget-problems-wont-be-fixed-without-change-in-revenue-structure#new_tab

Excerpt:

For starters, it left Illinois stuck with its long-standing, flat rate income tax. This outcome was something other than desirable, given the central role this flat rate income tax has played in driving Illinois’ incessant, and substantial, General Fund deficits.

How substantial? Current estimates are the General Fund deficit will reach $13 billion by the end of FY 2022 — which means Illinois won’t have the revenue needed to cover almost half of anticipated FY 2022 expenditures on services. That’s a real cause for concern, given over 95 percent of all General Fund spending on services goes to the four, core areas of education, health care, human services, and public safety.

Sure, a portion of this deficit will resolve itself once the revenue shortfalls caused by the pandemic end. That said, the crux of Illinois’ fiscal problems have nothing to do with COVID-19, and everything to do with structural flaws in the state’s tax policy — the flat rate income tax being key among them.

Author(s): Ralph Martire

Publication Date: 12 February 2021

Publication Site: Daily Herald