Music Sentiment and Stock Returns Around the World

Link: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3776071

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Excerpt:

This paper introduces a real-time, continuous measure of national sentiment that is language-free and thus comparable globally: the positivity of songs that individuals choose to listen to. This is a direct measure of mood that does not pre-specify certain mood-affecting events nor assume the extent of their impact on investors. We validate our music-based sentiment measure by correlating it with mood swings induced by seasonal factors, weather conditions, and COVID-related restrictions. We find that music sentiment is positively correlated with same-week equity market returns and negatively correlated with next-week returns, consistent with sentiment-induced temporary mispricing. Results also hold under a daily analysis and are stronger when trading restrictions limit arbitrage. Music sentiment also predicts increases in net mutual fund flows, and absolute sentiment precedes a rise in stock market volatility. It is negatively associated with government bond returns, consistent with a flight to safety.

Author(s):

Alex Edmans
London Business School – Institute of Finance and Accounting; European Corporate Governance Institute (ECGI); Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

Adrian Fernandez-Perez
Auckland University of Technology

Alexandre Garel
Audencia Business School

Ivan Indriawan
Auckland University of Technology – Department of Finance

Publication Date: 14 Aug 2021

Publication Site: SSRN, Journal of Financial Economics (forthcoming)

Incentivizing Financial Regulators

Link: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3072695

Abstract:

I study how promotion incentives within the public sector affect financial regulation. I assemble individual data for all SEC enforcement attorneys between 2002 and 2017, including enforcement cases, salaries, and ranks. Consistent with tournament model, attorneys with stronger promotion incentives are involved in more enforcement, especially against severe financial misconduct, and in tougher settlement terms. For identification, I rely on cross-sectional tests within offices and ranks and on exogenous variation in salaries resulting from a rule-based conversion to a new pay system. The findings highlight a novel link between incentives and regulation and show that the regulator’s organizational design affects securities markets.

Author: Joseph Kalmenovitz

Publication Date: 28 March 2019

Date Accessed: 30 January 2021

Publication Site: SSRN