More Rate Scares Ahead for Stocks

Link: https://www.wsj.com/articles/more-rate-scares-ahead-for-stocks-11614772800

Excerpt:

Expectations of a stronger economy count as a positive development for companies’ earnings prospects, but they are pushing long-term interest rates higher, with the 10-year Treasury recently yielding 1.41% versus 0.93% at the start of the year. That isn’t unusual, since long-term rates typically go up as the economy’s prospects improve, but then again stocks haven’t tended to be as expensive at the start of recoveries as they are now.

The S&P 500 trades at about 22 times analysts’ expected earnings over the next year, according to FactSet, which is close to its highest forward price-earnings ratio in 20 years. In December 2009, six months after the last recession ended, the S&Ps forward P/E ratio was about 14.

As a result, even relatively modest moves upward in Treasury yields, and therefore the relative attractiveness of bonds to stocks, can cause market spasms. This is particularly true of the richly valued technology shares that have been among the biggest market winners since last spring.

Author(s): Justin Lahart

Publication Date: 3 March 2021

Publication Site: Wall Street Journal

In Democrats’ progressive paradise, borrowing is free, spending pays for itself, and interest rates never rise

Link: https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2021/03/03/democrats-stimulus-spending-inflation/

Excerpt:

To hear it from liberal economists, progressive activists and Democratic politicians, there is no longer any limit to how much money government can borrow and spend and print.

In this new economy, we no longer have to worry that stock prices might climb so high, or companies take on so much debt, that a financial crisis might ensue. In this world without trade-offs, we can shut down the fossil fuel industry and transition to a zero-carbon economy without any risk to employment and economic growth. Nor is there any amount of infrastructure investment that could possibly exceed the capacity of the construction industry to absorb it.

Rest assured that the economy won’t miss a beat no matter how far or fast the minimum wage is raised. And whatever benefits are required by the always struggling middle class can be financed by raising taxes on big corporations and the undeserving rich.

Author(s): Steven Pearlstein

Publication Date: 3 March 2021

Publication Site: Washington Post