What did make a big difference, it turns out, is not so much the severity of lockdowns but pre-existing conditions. The likely cause here can be best identified as “exposure density” brought on by crowded housing, transit, and office environments.

That helps explain why, after New York City’s suburbs were hit hard in the first wave, the current surge has hit the outer boroughs, where a much higher share of workers have had little choice but to continue taking the subway or other transit.

Nationwide, urban exposure to the pandemic also reflects their greater inequality. Higher rates of poverty and overcrowded housing accentuate the worst effects of the pandemic, which tore through impoverished parts of New YorkHoustonLos Angeles CountyChicago’s poor south side, and similar areas. The Bronx, for example, has suffered an 80 percent worse death rate than denser yet wealthier Manhattan, while Brooklyn’s rate is 50 percent worse than Manhattan’s.

Author(s): Joel Kotkin, Wendell Cox

Publication Date: 6 April 2021

Publication Site: New Geography

What We Hope Is The Final COVID Surge




My current plan is to stop following COVID numbers after this coming May. But a lot of that plan rested on this assumption that, as we get really high up there with vaccine numbers, the COVID data would become less and less interesting as it just kind of fizzles out.

Michigan is currently putting that assumption to the test.

*takes deep breath*

The numbers out of Michigan have all the markings of a classic COVID surge. I could maybe make the case that it’s not as steep as we would have expected and maybe it will plateau in the next week or two, but I’ve been expecting that the rate of vaccinations would temper this kind of a surge.

Author(s): PoliMath

Publication Date: 6 April 2021

Publication Site: Marginally Compelling at Substack