November 14-20, 1921

Link: https://roaring20s.substack.com/p/november-14-1921

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Historical Fact: Some readers may have a pressing question: What happens to debt, including mortgages, under hyperinflation? In finance, there is a popular quote, “there is no free lunch.” By 1924, Weimar Germany will redenominate and reinstate debt into the brand new Rentenmark after bailing out Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank. It’s a messy process and beyond the scope of this publication you’re reading.

Author(s): Tate

Publication Date: 14 Nov 2021

Publication Site: Roaring 20s at substack

Why COVID-19 Probably Killed More People Than We Realize

Link:https://hbswk.hbs.edu/item/why-covid-19-probably-killed-more-people-than-we-realize

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As the number of casualties from COVID-19 ballooned at an alarming rate last year, some feared that government officials were failing to report several coronavirus-related losses and the actual death toll was much higher worldwide.

While the official count shows more than 5 million people have died of the disease, a new study of underreported casualties in several countries indicates that COVID has actually killed hundreds of thousands more people than government records document.

….

The HBS researchers gathered the reported monthly numbers of deaths during the pandemic in each of the 51 countries from a variety of sources, including reports in the New York Times and the European Commission’s database, Eurostat. They compared that data to figures from the same months for the past three to five years to calculate excess deaths. Subtracting the number of official COVID deaths for each country helped them gauge potential underreporting.

…..

In fact, countries with more stringent policies in place did, on average, have 59 percent higher unexplained excess deaths—that is, 159 deaths for every 100 reported for COVID.

Author(s): Ethan Rouen, George Serafeim

Publication Date: 2 Nov 2021

Publication Site: Working Knowledge at Harvard Business School

Year-to-Date Murder Comparisons

Link:https://datastudio.google.com/embed/u/0/reporting/133bc335-b4e9-41f4-890d-3adb7de5a141/page/QX9NC

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Murder rose by roughly 25 percent in 2020 according to preliminary data from the FBI. The graph on the right shows why analyzing data from big cities is the best way we have to understand current murder trends. These figures will be updated throughout the year, and data later in the year will give a much clearer picture of our anticipated murder trend compared to data collected early in the year. 

Date Accessed: 11 Nov 2021

Publication Site: Datalytics

Practical Application of “Do Jumps Matter in the Long Term? A Tale of Two Horizons”

Link:https://www.soa.org/globalassets/assets/files/resources/naaj-practical-application-essays/2021/naaj-essay-cantor.pdf

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In this essay, we consider an additional application. Using the utility framework described by Warren (2019), we
examine the impact of using one of BB’s fitted jump-diffusion models on a pension plan sponsor’s long-term asset
allocation decision. We want to compare asset allocation results to those using the standard finance workhorse
model of a geometric Brownian motion (i.e., lognormal return generating process or LN hereafter).

Author(s):

Jean-François Bégin, PhD, FSA, FCIA
Mathieu Boudreault, PhD, FSA, FCIA
David R. Cantor, CFA, FRM, ASA
Kailan Shang, FSA, ACIA, CFA, PRM

Publication Date: September 2021

Publication Site: Society of Actuaries

Wave of COVID-19 Deaths Hit RGA Hard

Link: https://www.thinkadvisor.com/2021/11/08/wave-of-covid-19-deaths-hit-rga-hard/

Excerpt:

After the second quarter, RGA executives told analysts they were optimistic about the effects of COVID-19 vaccination programs on mortality.

Instead, “the third quarter saw increases in both COVID-19 and non-COVID-19 general population mortality,” Porter said.

In the United States and India, the typical age of people dying of COVID-19 is falling, Porter added.

That hurts life insurers because people under 65 are more likely than older people to have life insurance.

Author(s): Allison Bell

Publication Date: 8 Nov 2021

Publication Site: Think Advisor

November 7-13, 1921

Link:https://roaring20s.substack.com/p/november-7-1921

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Companies ranging from Ford Motor Company to Union Pacific Railroad report substantially improved business activity for the month of October. The current recession may have ended in the summer. Aggregate bond purchases were the largest since one year ago as Americans finally start investing again. Opinion articles, however, advise against common stock and its gambling attributes.

Historical Fact: American and international investors will soon assume high GDP growth is a feature of the American economy, as God-given and laid down in the natural order as the seasons. At the end of 1921, however, it’s not yet clear elements are present for business revival.

Author(s): Tate

Publication Date: 7 Nov 2021

Publication Site: Roaring 20s on substack

An Unsolved Mystery: Why Do More Men Die of Covid-19?

Link:https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/02/opinion/men-covid-19-deaths.html

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Men are much more likely than women to die of Covid-19 and are more likely to be intubated and have long hospitalizations. This disparity in Covid-related deaths has existed since early in the pandemic, before there were any vaccines. Men are also more likely to develop certain rare complications from some Covid-19 vaccines and to experience a faster decline in measures of immunity once vaccinated. The reasons remain unclear.

Historically, women have been largely excluded from medical studies, and health issues that predominantly affect women have been underresearched. This is both morally wrong and medically foolish because it limits physicians’ ability to deliver optimal care. Rather than ignore sex differences in Covid-19 outcomes, scientists should pay attention to them to better understand the disease and how to treat it.

Data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention shows that in the United States, women account for 45.6 percent of Covid-19 deaths so far and men account for 54.4 percent. (Men make up slightly less than half the U.S. population.) Among Americans ages 65 to 84 — the group at highest risk for severe Covid-19 — the gap is even larger: 57.9 percent of deaths have occurred among men and 42.1 percent among women. According to the Brookings Institution, at least 65,000 more men than women have died of Covid-19 in the United States. Globally, the death rate has been about 50 percent higher for men.

A July 2021 study found that compared to women, men with Covid-19 had an almost 50 percent higher rate of respiratory intubation and a 22 percent longer hospital stay.

Author(s): Ezekiel Emanuel

Publication Date: 2 Nov 2021

Publication Site: New York Times

On Covid, Excess Mortality by Race/Ethnicity, and Geographic Patterns

Link:https://marypatcampbell.substack.com/p/on-covid-excess-mortality-by-raceethnicity

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And now you can see it — the blue curve for Hispanics has a summer 2020 peak much higher than that for whites, Blacks, and Asians.

I want to note the high peak for Asian deaths in winter 2020-2021.

See that there is a high spike for Asian, Hispanic, and Black in that first NYC-centered wave that we’ve known so well… but a little blip for White. And I want you to think about that a little. Because that really explains a lot of the disproportionate effects on minorities in the U.S. and it goes back to Charles Blow’s question at the top of this post.

The answer to all of this being geographic distribution.

Author(s): Mary Pat Campbell

Publication Date: 6 Nov 2021

Publication Site: STUMP at substack

HOW TO BELIEVE IN ASTROLOGY

Link:https://www.firstthings.com/article/2021/10/how-to-believe-in-astrology

Excerpt:

Until the eighteenth century, the London Bills of Mortality would frequently list a cause of death as “planet.” This meant that a man had died without apparent cause, but the reason was clear. He had fallen under the influence of an evil star. A planet had killed this man, as directly as if a trillion tons of livid space-rock had come screaming out of the sky to conk him on the head. This is what it means to believe in astrology: accepting that at any moment, the mathematically preordained rhythms of the heavens might simply decide to kill you.

Author(s): Sam Kriss

Publication Date: October 2021

Publication Site: First Things

Leaders: Stop Confusing Correlation with Causation

Link:https://hbr.org/2021/11/leaders-stop-confusing-correlation-with-causation

Excerpt:

A 2020 Washington Post article examined the correlation between police spending and crime. It concluded that, “A review of spending on state and local police over the past 60 years…shows no correlation nationally between spending and crime rates.” This correlation is misleading. An important driver of police spending is the current level of crime, which creates a chicken and egg scenario. Causal research has, in fact, shown that more police lead to a reduction in crime.

….

Yelp overcame a similar challenge in 2015. A consulting report found that companies that advertised on the platform ended up earning more business through Yelp than those that didn’t advertise on the platform. But here’s the problem: Companies that get more business through Yelp may be more likely to advertise. The former COO and I discussed this challenge and we decided to run a large-scale experiment that gave packages of advertisements to thousands of randomly selected businesses. The key to successfully executing this experiment was determining which factors were driving the correlation. We found that Yelp ads did have a positive effect on sales, and it provided Yelp with new insight into the effect of ads.

Author(s): Michael Luca

Publication Date: 5 Nov 2021

Publication Site: Harvard Business Review

Insurers Continue To Flirt With Electronic Health Records

Link:https://www.thewealthadvisor.com/article/insurers-continue-flirt-electronic-health-records

Excerpt:

The use of electronic health records in insurance underwriting has long held terrific potential to boost the industry. Progress has been slow to date, but that is about to change.

By late-2022, EHR will be standard at 50% of the top 20 carriers, said Nicholas Irwin, director of life underwriting at Verisk.

“I think once we get to that 50% hit rate threshold and same-day turnaround time, I’d be very surprised it didn’t become a standard at that point,” Irwin said Tuesday during the Society of Insurance Research annual conference.

The acquisition of a medical record, a crucial part of life underwriting risk-assessment, largely remains largely an inefficient paper process. The availability of healthcare information as a data stream is a critical advantage for insurers using rules-based decision engines for accelerated underwriting.

Author(s): John Hilton, InsuranceNewsNet

Publication Date: 24 Oct 2021

Publication Site: The Wealth Advisor

“Ending Jim Crow Life Insurance Rates”: A Professionalism Case Study Webcast

Link: https://www.soa.org/prof-dev/webcasts/2021-ending-jim-crow/

Description:

This session will introduce a late 19th century article by actuary FL Hoffman. This article provided a justification for racially discriminatory life insurance premiums – a practice that existed well into the 20th century and was consistent with “Jim Crow” thinking. Join the presenters as they discuss the reasons that Hoffman’s article was actuarially unsound using commentaries at the time it was written as well as recent publications that include important reflections on the actuarial profession that apply both historically and in the present. The session will discuss thoughts about how Hoffman’s work would be received and handled today, including the role of the ABCD in such matters, several rules and regulations that now guide actuarial conduct and are designed to prevent discriminatory practices, and actuarial ethical responsibilities. The session will conclude with an observation that one of the best ways for the actuarial profession to prevent the use of racially discriminatory practices in our work is by having a diverse actuarial profession with members who will provide first-hand perspectives about inappropriate actuarial practices.

Author(s):

Jay M. Jaffe, FSA, MAAA

Reinsurance Administration, Ltd.

Webcast Date (to come): 10 November 2021

Publication Site: SOA