Author: Mary Pat Campbell

Music Sentiment and Stock Returns Around the World

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3776071

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Excerpt:

This paper introduces a real-time, continuous measure of national sentiment that is language-free and thus comparable globally: the positivity of songs that individuals choose to listen to. This is a direct measure of mood that does not pre-specify certain mood-affecting events nor assume the extent of their impact on investors. We validate our music-based sentiment measure by correlating it with mood swings induced by seasonal factors, weather conditions, and COVID-related restrictions. We find that music sentiment is positively correlated with same-week equity market returns and negatively correlated with next-week returns, consistent with sentiment-induced temporary mispricing. Results also hold under a daily analysis and are stronger when trading restrictions limit arbitrage. Music sentiment also predicts increases in net mutual fund flows, and absolute sentiment precedes a rise in stock market volatility. It is negatively associated with government bond returns, consistent with a flight to safety.

Author(s):

Alex Edmans
London Business School – Institute of Finance and Accounting; European Corporate Governance Institute (ECGI); Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

Adrian Fernandez-Perez
Auckland University of Technology

Alexandre Garel
Audencia Business School

Ivan Indriawan
Auckland University of Technology – Department of Finance

Publication Date: 14 Aug 2021

Publication Site: SSRN, Journal of Financial Economics (forthcoming)

Huge Credit Stress Starting in China May Easily Rock the Whole World

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://mishtalk.com/economics/huge-credit-stress-starting-in-china-may-easily-rock-the-whole-world

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“If funding stress signs don’t emerge, don’t conclude that there is no contagion. Contagion is playing out already if you know where to look.”

The mess in China does not stop with Evergrande. 

…..

Everglade shows the theft of wealth and money in a giant Ponzi scheme, not to be confused with real savings (i.e. net tangible assets at true market value)!

There is no savings glut. 

The alleged savings glut is nothing but a fiat Ponzi scheme where central banks have to keep money supply soaring to keep asset prices (based on debt) from imploding!

How much longer this setup can continue before it blows up in a currency crisis, war with China, or some other major economic disruption remains a key mystery.

Author(s): Mike Shedlock

Publication Date: 20 Sept 2021

Publication Site: MishTalk

How Beijing’s Debt Clampdown Shook the Foundation of a Real-Estate Colossus

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-beijings-debt-clampdown-shook-the-foundation-of-a-real-estate-colossus-11631957400

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The party has ended. Years of aggressive borrowing have collided with Beijing’s crackdown on debt, leaving the developer on the brink of collapse. Construction of Evergrande’s projects in many cities has stopped. The company has faced a litany of complaints and protests from suppliers, small investors and home buyers who sank their savings into properties the company promised to deliver.

Cash is so short that this summer, the developer said it began paying bills to contractors and suppliers with unfinished apartments instead of actual money. A paint supplier based in the southeastern province of Fujian said Evergrande recently paid off the equivalent of $34 million in bills with three unfinished properties, which the supplier is trying to sell. At a construction firm in Wuhan, more than 200 employees have been forced to take pay cuts because some of Evergrande’s bills are past due, a manager at the firm said,

Former and current employees say layoffs are adding up, and free meals that Evergrande used to provide for staffers at its headquarters have been canceled. In central China’s Hubei province, Evergrande has asked the local government to take over homeowners’ funds held in escrow accounts so they can’t be seized in legal disputes with creditors, according to people familiar with the matter.

Evergrande didn’t respond to requests for comment. The company said on Sept. 14 that its apartment sales have slowed markedly since June, its asset-disposal plans haven’t materialized, and it has hired financial advisers — a move that brings it closer to a potential debt restructuring.

Author(s): Xie Yu and Elaine Yu

Publication Date: 18 Sept 2021

Publication Site: WSJ

Japan’s older population hits record high

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2021/09/20/national/japans-older-population-hits-record-high/

Excerpt:

The estimated number of people aged 65 or older in Japan stood at a record high of 36.4 million as of Wednesday, an increase of 220,000 from a year before, the internal affairs ministry said Sunday.

The share of those aged adults in the nation’s total population rose to a record 29.1%, the highest among 201 countries and regions across the world.

Older men totaled 15.83 million, or 26% of the total male population. There were 20.57 million elderly women, or 32% of the female population.

The ministry released the data ahead of Respect for the Aged Day on Monday, a national holiday.

In Japan, the share of aged people has been rising since 1950. The figure is expected to rise to as high as 35.3% in 2040 when the so-called second baby-boomer generation, or people born in the early 1970s, reaches the age of 65 or older, according to the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research.

Publication Date: 20 Sept 2021

Publication Site: The Japan Times

Elon Musk’s Push to Expand Tesla’s Driver Assistance to Cities Rankles a Top Safety Authority

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.wsj.com/articles/elon-musks-push-to-expand-teslas-driver-assistance-to-cities-rankles-a-top-safety-authority-11632043803

Excerpt:

Tesla Inc. is readying a major upgrade of its driver-assistance software but the top federal crash investigator says the move might be premature.

Chief Executive Elon Musk said last week that drivers would soon be able to request an enhanced version of what Tesla calls its “Full Self-Driving Capability.” The upgrade is expected to add a feature intended to help vehicles navigate cities, expanding the suite of driver-assistance tools that had been designed mainly for highways.

Despite its name, Full Self-Driving doesn’t make cars fully autonomous, and Tesla instructs drivers to remain alert, with their hands on the wheel.

Jennifer Homendy, the new head of the National Transportation Safety Board, said Tesla shouldn’t roll out the city-driving tool before addressing what the agency views as safety deficiencies in the company’s technology. The NTSB, which investigates crashes and issues safety recommendations though it has no regulatory authority, has urged Tesla to clamp down on how drivers are able to use the company’s driver-assistance tools.

Author(s): Rebecca Elliott

Publication Date: 19 Sept 2021

Publication Site: WSJ

Massachusetts fines MassMutual $4.75 mln in ‘Roaring Kitty’ case

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/massachusetts-fines-massmutual-475-mln-failing-supervise-roaring-kitty-other-2021-09-16/

Excerpt:

A MassMutual investment subsidiary has agreed to pay $4.75 million to resolve allegations by Massachusetts securities regulators including that it failed to supervise its agents, among them the social media persona “Roaring Kitty,” whose online posts helped spark January’s trading frenzy in GameStop Corp (GME.N) shares.

Massachusetts Secretary of the Commonwealth William Galvin on Thursday said MML Investors Services failed to detect the activities of Keith Gill, who touted GameStop stock in his spare time while he was working at the company.

Galvin, the state’s top securities regulator, alleged MassMutual also inadequately supervised other agents and failed to review their social media usage or catch excessive trading in their personal accounts.

The company agreed to pay a $4 million fine to resolve those allegations and another $750,000 for failing to register 478 broker-dealer agents. It also agreed to overhaul its social media policies.

Author(s): Nate Raymond

Publication Date: 16 September 2021

Publication Site: Reuters

Study: Logging, landscaping most dangerous jobs in U.S.

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.upi.com/Health_News/2021/09/18/logging-most-dangerous-profession/2541631912925/

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Logging and landscaping are the most dangerous jobs in America, a new study finds.

The risk of death for loggers is more than 30 times higher than for all U.S. workers. Tree care workers also encounter hazards at rates far higher than a typical worker.

….

For the study, the researchers combed a U.S. Occupational Safety and Health Administration database for deaths from tree felling between 2010 and the first half of 2020.

Over the period, Michael’s team found 314 deaths. The leading cause of fatal accidents was being struck by a tree, most often in the head.

….

Years such as 2012, 2017 and 2018 with abnormally high damage from Atlantic storms saw high numbers of landscaping deaths that might be tied to storm damage, while 2014 and 2015 had quiet hurricane seasons and few deaths.

Author(s): HealthDay News

Publication Date: 18 Sept 2021

Publication Site: UPI

More than Half of U.S. Counties Were Smaller in 2020 Than in 2010

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2021/08/more-than-half-of-united-states-counties-were-smaller-in-2020-than-in-2010.html

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Almost half (47%) of U.S. counties or equivalents gained population between 2010 and 2020 (Figure 1).

Five counties (metro areas in parentheses) gained at least 300,000 people during that period: Harris County, Texas (Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land); Maricopa County, Arizona (Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler); King County, Washington (Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue); Clark County, Nevada (Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise); and Tarrant County, Texas (Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington).

California’s Los Angeles County remained the largest county in 2020, crossing the 10.0 million-person mark between 2010 and 2020.

Author(s): PAUL MACKUN, JOSHUA COMENETZ, AND LINDSAY SPELL

Publication Date: 12 August 2021

Publication Site: U.S. Census Bureau

China Property Fear Spreads Beyond Evergrande, Roiling Markets

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/hong-kong-stocks-sink-evergrande-023055601.html

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Growing investor angst about China’s real estate crackdown rippled through markets on Monday, adding pressure on Xi Jinping’s government to prevent financial contagion from destabilizing the world’s second-largest economy.

Hong Kong real estate giants including Henderson Land Development Co. suffered the biggest selloff in more than a year as traders speculated China will extend its property clampdown to the financial hub. Intensifying concerns about China Evergrande Group’s debt crisis dragged down everything from bank stocks to Ping An Insurance Group Co. and high-yield dollar bonds. One little-known Chinese property developer plunged 87% before shares were halted.

Hong Kong’s benchmark Hang Seng Index slumped 3.3%, its biggest loss since late July. The selling also spilled over into the Hong Kong dollar, offshore yuan and S&P 500 Index futures. Holiday closures in much of Asia may have exacerbated the volatility, traders said.

…..

“The repercussions from Evergrande’s prospective collapse will likely contribute to China’s ongoing economic deceleration, which in turn anchors global growth and inflation, and casts a pall over commodity prices,” wrote analysts led by Phoenix Kalen, head of emerging-market strategy in London.

Author(s): Catherine Ngai and Ishika Mookerjee

Publication Date: 20 September 2021

Publication Site: Yahoo Finance

In The Fight Against COVID, Health Workers Aren’t Immune To Vaccine Misinformation

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.npr.org/2021/09/18/1037975289/unvaccinated-covid-19-vaccine-refuse-nurses-heath-care-workers

Excerpt:

As new data shows 1 in 500 Americans has died from COVID-19 and the delta variant continues to surge across the country, the next challenge many health care leaders face is within their own staffs: the 27% of of U.S. health care workers who have not been vaccinated against the disease as of July, according to a study by The COVID States Project.

On top of that, other research shows that since the vaccine first became available to health care workers in December 2020, the rate of vaccination among nurses and nursing home aides has been lower than that of physicians. This may be of particular concern because nurses and aides have such frequent and close contact with patients.

Data shows health care workers have gotten the COVID-19 vaccine at a higher rate than the general population: 73% versus 64% of non-health care workers. And many may assume that people who work in health care industry are more enthusiastic about the vaccine and less apprehensive.

….

While a majority of nurses are vaccinated and more than half support vaccine mandates in the workplace, some are pushing back against requirements to get vaccinated or face mandatory testing and say they would rather leave their jobs. And hospitals are already feeling the effects.

Author(s): Deepa Shivaram

Publication Date: 18 Sept 2021

Publication Site: NPR

House Panel Votes to Rein in Large Retirement Account Balances

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.asppa.org/news/browse-topics/house-panel-votes-rein-large-retirement-account-balances

Excerpt:

Mega-Roth, backdoor IRAs and large retirement account balances would be limited under legislation approved Sept. 15 by the House Ways and Means Committee.

In a near party-line vote of 24-19, the changes were approved as part of the $3.5 trillion Build Back Better Act reconciliation recommendations that address everything from implementing infrastructure development and green energy incentives, to expanding Medicare, offering paid family and medical leave, and extending Trade Adjustment Assistance. 

….

These revenue-raising retirement proposals are included in Subtitle I, “Responsibly Funding Our Priorities,” along with a host of other individual and corporate tax increases. The Joint Committee on Taxation estimates that these tax changes would raise approximately $2.1 trillion over 10 years to help pay for the fiscal year 2022 budget reconciliation bill. (For a more detailed description of the retirement-based revenue proposals, click here.)

Author(s): Ted Godbout

Publication Date: 16 Sept 2021

Publication Site: American Society of Pension Professionals & Actuaries

Heaping on the SALT

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.city-journal.org/will-biden-restore-the-state-and-local-tax-deduction

Excerpt:

The Biden administration will need practically every Democratic representative in Congress to vote for its proposed $2 trillion package of tax increases, which would be the largest in 54 years. To gain that support, the president may have to season his legislation with some SALT. The bill, which raises corporate taxes and boosts capital-gains levies, among other things, doesn’t restore the full federal deduction for state and local taxes that Donald Trump’s 2017 tax-cut bill capped.

Democrats in key high-tax blue states, including New York representative Tom Suozzi and New Jersey representative Josh Gottheimer, have been complaining that Trump’s tax bill placed an undue burden on their states’ residents. Some have vowed not to support any tax legislation unless it reinstates the full SALT deduction. The problem: federal data show that restoring the deduction would overwhelmingly profit rich taxpayers—and lawmakers in many blue states have already raised their own levies on the rich.

…..

Subsequent data have shown that the SALT changes fall heavily on the rich, while the vast majority of taxpayers in high-tax states have benefited from the Trump cuts. An analysis of 2018 New York tax returns found that the number of residents subject to the higher rates of the Alternative Minimum Tax declined to just 0.2 percent of all returns, down from 5.9 percent in 2017. Thanks to the doubling of the standard deduction, the number of New Yorkers itemizing their deductions shrank by nearly two-thirds that year, according to an Empire Center report. A recent report by the left-of-center Brookings Institution found that 57 percent of the benefits of restoring a full SALT deduction would go to the top 1 percent of households, providing them with an average tax cut of $33,000.

Author(s): Steven Malanga

Publication Date: 17 Sept 2021

Publication Site: City Journal