Author: Mary Pat Campbell

Puerto Rico files debt-restructuring plan amid criticism

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/latino/puerto-rico-files-debt-restructuring-plan-criticism-rcna375

Excerpt:

 A framework that outlines how Puerto Rico will restructure at least $35 billion in public debt and more than $50 billion in public pension liabilities threatens a 10% cut to public pensions if no agreement is reached with retirees.

The amended plan of adjustment of 233 pages was filed late Monday in U.S. court by a federal control board that oversees Puerto Rico’s finances and was created by Congress to lift the U.S. territory’s government out of bankruptcy.

The plan includes a proposed cut of up to 8.5% to monthly pensions of at least $1,500. That has long been a point of contention between the board and the governor, who has repeatedly said he would not approve such cuts.

Author(s): Associated Press

Publication Date: 9 March 2021

Publication Site: NBC News

On COVID Origins

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://polimath.substack.com/p/on-covid-origins-cf5

Excerpt:

From what I know, which is (if I’m being generous) 10% of the available information:

zoonotic origin (animal to human) is not off the table. This is a plausible theory. Also, we have no hard evidence supporting it. In fact, there is a frustrating lack of evidence supporting it.

lab escape is not off the table. This is a plausible theory with precedent. We have no hard evidence supporting it. But also, the CCP has closed the door on investigating this possibility so we are unlikely to learn any new information on this absent a defection from a Chinese scientist or researcher.

lab manipulation is unlikely, though “manipulation” is a really generous term. It could mean anything from “the virus mutated in the lab to become more dangerous” to “they used some intentional genetic manipulation technology to make it more dangerous”. Again… I find this unlikely and we absolutely zero evidence that this was done.

Author(s): PoliMath

Publication Date: 9 March 2021

Publication Site: Marginally Compelling at Substack

Fed Policy Is Smothering Private Lending

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.wsj.com/articles/fed-policy-is-smothering-private-lending-11615250626

Excerpt:

The 25 largest U.S. banks currently hold 45.7% of their assets in loans and leases, according to Fed data released Friday, down from 54.1% this time last year. Meantime, their year-over-year holdings of Treasury and agency securities increased 33.5%. This reflects more-stringent borrowing standards and diminished loan demand. But it also reveals a subtle yet persistent change in how banks operate.

Banks have pulled back from making risky loans in favor of engaging more directly with the Fed — avoiding the type of lending that spawned stricter regulatory standards after 2008 while readily accommodating the Fed’s expressed satisfaction with an “ample reserves” regime. Bank lending to small businesses has remained low throughout the postcrisis years, with the largest declines in small-business lending at large banks, as shown in a 2018 report commissioned by the Small Business Administration.

The switch is understandable. The cost of regulatory compliance is a huge disincentive for banks, and selling government-backed securities to the Fed and piling up reserves can turn out to be a profitable business model.

Author(s): Judy Shelton

Publication Date: 8 March 2021

Publication Site: Wall Street Journal

Does the Fed’s Monetary Policy Threaten Inflation? (Contains Spoilers)

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.nationalreview.com/2021/03/does-the-feds-monetary-policy-threaten-inflation-contains-spoilers/

Excerpt:

Indeed, Brainard writes, “If, in the future, inflation rises immoderately or persistently above target, and there is evidence that longer-term inflation expectations are moving above our longer-run goal, I would not hesitate to act and believe we have the tools to carefully guide inflation down to target.” It matters that people believe this, even if the actions cause immense short-term pain. Do people still believe the Fed has that will? Do people believe that the Treasury Department and Congress have the parallel will to take fiscal steps to contain inflation if it should come?

Does the Fed really have the tools to do it? I am doubtful. For ten years, interest rates were zero. (Interest rates were either too high or too low, depending on your view of things, but stuck at zero in any case.) For ten years, the Fed ran massive quantitative easing after quantitative easing. Inflation just sailed along slightly below 2 percent. This episode suggests the Fed has a lot less power than it thinks. But that is also a cheery view, as if the Fed’s interest-rate and bond-purchase tools are relatively powerless, then not much of what the Fed is doing will cause inflation either. In the current economy, fiscal policy and fiscal anchoring seem the greater danger to inflation than even the monetary mistakes of the 1970s.

Author(s): John H. Cochrane

Publication Date: 9 March 2021

Publication Site: National Review

The Politics of Pensions

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.nationalreview.com/the-tuesday/the-politics-of-pensions/

Excerpt:

One of the difficulties faced by some of these pensions is that most of the large employers that were expected to pay into them no longer do so, many of them having ceased to exist. As Elliot Blair Smith put it in a 2016 MarketWatch write-up of the sorry history of the Central States pension fund: “Only three of the plan’s 50 largest employers from 1980 still pay into the plan. And for each active employee, it has 5.2 retired or inactive participants.”

If corporations did nothing but grow and stack up profits, then this would be a pretty good system. But that isn’t how things actually work.

In spite of the sci-fi trope of immortal, galaxy-spanning corporations, the modern business firm is in fact a relatively vulnerable and short-lived thing. In the middle of the 20th century, a big corporation might be expected to stay in business for the better part of a century; today, the average big corporation will not live long enough to legally order a beer. McKinsey has estimated that three-fourths of the companies listed in the S&P 500 in 2017 will disappear within ten years. This is an inconvenient thing for people who expect to be taken care of for all of their adult lifetimes by a single employer, but it is the result of improved business practices rather than defective ones. As businesses become more focused on their core competencies and learn to adapt more quickly to changes in the market, they become ever more temporary partnerships among different kinds of capital: physical, financial, and human.

Author(s): Kevin Williamson

Publication Date: 9 March 2021

Publication Site: National Review

five questions for better data communications

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.storytellingwithdata.com/blog/2021/1/10/lets-improve-this-graph-yt9xj

Graphic:

Excerpt:

Although we don’t have the full context behind this example, let’s assume that the audience is a new senior product manager developing next year’s promotional strategy and needs to understand recent changes in the marketplace. I’ll use the Big Idea worksheet to form my single-sentence main message:

To offset a 24% sales decline due to COVID-19 and increase market share next year, consider how customers are opting for different purchase types as we form our new promotional strategy.

The action my audience needs to take is to use their newfound understanding of shifting purchase types to develop future promotional strategies. Having identified the next step, I can now choose which graph(s) will best drive this discussion. I’ll opt for the line graph to show the historical total sales decline, paired with the slopegraph to emphasize the shift in purchase types:

Author(s): Elizabeth Ricks

Publication Date: 8 March 2021

Publication Site: storytelling with data

QUESTION 2: Am I using color intentionally?

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: http://www.storytellingwithdata.com/blog/2021/1/11/the-most-important-dataviz-decision-you-make

Graphic:

Excerpt:

To create more impactful explanatory visuals, develop the habit of using color in a purposeful way. When applied thoughtfully, color is arguably the most important decision you make when focusing your audience’s attention where you want it. 

One way to start is by overriding the default color palette of your data viz tool and start with nothing emphasized.

Author(s): Elizabeth Ricks

Publication Date: 11 January 2021

Publication Site: storytelling with data

S.F’s budget will be saved from painful cuts thanks to federal stimulus. What about in the next one?

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.sfchronicle.com/politics/article/Federal-stimulus-nearly-wipes-away-San-16010321.php

Excerpt:

The federal stimulus package likely to be signed by President Biden this week will erase the majority of San Francisco’s projected $650 million budget deficit over the next two years, saving City Hall from having to make painful service cuts and layoffs — for now.

While the federal stimulus is a boon for the economy in the short term, it will not solve all of the city’s financial woes. San Francisco’s ultimate recovery heavily depends on how quickly parts of the local economy bounce back, from tourists visiting the city to employees returning to downtown offices.

Without a substantial comeback in hotel, sales and business taxes, City Controller Ben Rosenfield said that Mayor London Breed and the Board of Supervisors will likely grapple with a fragile budget over the next few years.

…..

The city learned in December it had a $125 million surplus for the current year due to higher-than-expected property tax revenue, increased federal reimbursements and lower expenses. But that was only for the current year.

Breed ordered every city department to propose cuts to trim budgets by 10% over the next two years. Those cuts could have had noticeable impacts, from fewer 911 operators to fewer trial attorneys in the public defender’s office.

Author(s): Trisha Thadani

Publication Date: 8 March 2021

Publication Site: San Francisco Chronicle

Milliman analysis: Corporate pension funded ratio climbs to 92.9% in February

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/milliman-analysis-corporate-pension-funded-ratio-climbs-to-92-9-in-february-301242549.html

Excerpt:

Milliman, Inc., a premier global consulting and actuarial firm, today released the latest results of its latest Pension Funding Index (PFI), which analyzes the 100 largest U.S. corporate pension plans.

In February, corporate pension funding improved by $67 billion thanks to a 26-basis-point increase in the monthly discount rate, from January’s 2.62% to 2.88% as of February 28. As a result, the funded status deficit dropped to $133 billion at month’s end. Meanwhile, the market value of assets dropped by $2 billion for the month, the result of a meager 0.13% investment gain. Overall the funded ratio for the Milliman PFI plans climbed from 89.7% at the end of January to 92.9% as of February 28, the fifth straight month of improved funding for these plans.

Author(s): Milliman

Publication Date: 8 March 2021

Publication Site: PRNewswire

Stress Testing of Public Pensions Can Help States Navigate the COVID-19 Economy

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.pewtrusts.org/en/research-and-analysis/issue-briefs/2021/03/stress-testing-of-public-pensions-can-help-states-navigate-the-covid-19-economy

Graphic:

Excerpt:

Overall, the typical pension fund is now expected to return approximately 6% annually over the next 20 years, compared with 6.4% pre-pandemic (Figure 4). This change in outlook is consistent with the reduction in the median long-term return found by a recent survey of pension investment consultants13 and aligns with revisions for public pension return expectations published by S&P Global.14

Author(s): Greg Minnis

Publication Date: 8 March 2021

Publication Site: Pew Trusts

Why an epidemiologist thinks Connecticut has its COVID vaccine priorities backwards

Mary Pat Campbell
Why an epidemiologist thinks Connecticut has its COVID vaccine priorities backwards

Excerpt:

But the state has its terms for success defined backward, said Saad Omer, Yale School of Public Health epidemiologist and the director of the Yale Institute for Global Health. “That’s a process metric,” he said. “It’s not an outcome metric.”

How important is speed in the COVID-19 vaccine rollout? To Connecticut, it’s an important enough consideration to partially justify bucking CDC guidance on prioritizing people with co-morbidities, though experts suggest that it is the best way to prevent deaths in younger populations.

But by rolling out vaccine through an age-based process, the state will effectively de-prioritize younger adults with co-morbidities that put them at higher risk of dying from COVID-19, Omer said, because in those younger age groups, those with existing health issues will be part of a much larger crowd of eligible residents.

Author(s): Kasturi Pananjady

Publication Date: 9 March 2021

Publication Site: CT Mirror

Vaccine rollouts discriminates against CT residents of color, federal complaint alleges

Mary Pat Campbell
Vaccine rollouts discriminates against CT residents of color, federal complaint alleges

Excerpt:

Attorneys from three legal aid programs from across the state filed a federal complaint Monday against Gov. Ned Lamont and Connecticut, alleging that its vaccine rollout plan discriminates against residents of color.

The complaint asks the Office for Civil Rights to “immediately investigate and issue findings on an expedited basis” on whether the vaccine rollout discriminates on the basis of race and disability. Attorneys from Connecticut Legal Services, Inc., the New Haven Legal Assistance Association and Greater Hartford Legal Aid asked the OCR to tell Connecticut to revise its vaccine rollout to include people with underlying health conditions that put them at risk of contracting COVID-19, regardless of their age, and individuals who hold jobs that put them at heightened risk of contracting the virus, as identified by the Centers for Disease Control.

The complaint is at least the second filed since Feb. 22, when officials announced the COVID-19 vaccine would be distributed on the basis of age. Disability Rights Connecticut filed a similar complaint days later, claiming the new rollout “constitutes disability discrimination” that violates federal law.

Author(s): Kelan Lyons

Publication Date: 8 March 2021

Publication Site: CT Mirror