Author: Mary Pat Campbell

Provisional Drug Overdose Death Counts

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/drug-overdose-data.htm

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This data visualization presents provisional counts for drug overdose deaths based on a current flow of mortality data in the National Vital Statistics System. Counts for the most recent final annual data are provided for comparison. National provisional counts include deaths occurring within the 50 states and the District of Columbia as of the date specified and may not include all deaths that occurred during a given time period. Provisional counts are often incomplete and causes of death may be pending investigation (see Technical notes) resulting in an underestimate relative to final counts. To address this, methods were developed to adjust provisional counts for reporting delays by generating a set of predicted provisional counts (see Technical notes).

The provisional data presented in this visualization include: (a) the reported and predicted provisional counts of deaths due to drug overdose occurring nationally and in each jurisdiction; (b) a U.S. map of the percentage changes in provisional drug overdose deaths for the current 12 month-ending period compared with the 12-month period ending in the same month of the previous year, by jurisdiction; and (c) the reported and predicted provisional counts of drug overdose deaths involving specific drugs or drug classes occurring nationally and in selected jurisdictions. The reported and predicted provisional counts represent the numbers of deaths due to drug overdose occurring in the 12-month periods ending in the month indicated. These counts include all seasons of the year and are insensitive to variations by seasonality. Deaths are reported by the jurisdiction in which the death occurred.

Several data quality metrics, including the percent completeness in overall death reporting, percentage of deaths with cause of death pending further investigation, and the percentage of drug overdose deaths with specific drugs or drug classes reported are included to aid in interpretation of provisional data as these measures are related to the accuracy of provisional counts (see Technical notes). Reporting of the specific drugs and drug classes involved in drug overdose deaths varies by jurisdiction, and comparisons of death rates involving specific drugs across selected jurisdictions should not be made (see Technical notes). Provisional data presented in this visualization will be updated on a monthly basis as additional records are received.

Publication Date: Accessed 19 Sept 2024

Publication Site: National Center for Health Statistics, CDC

The future of excess mortality after COVID-19

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.swissre.com/institute/research/topics-and-risk-dialogues/health-and-longevity/covid-19-pandemic-synonymous-excess-mortality.html?utm_campaign=CPN-2181_mortality-2024_Group_GLOBAL_2024&utm_medium=Other_Organic&utm_source=LinkedIn&utm_content=Health_N/A_Publication_EN&utm_term=excessmortality

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Four years on from the outbreak of the pandemic in 2020, many countries worldwide still report elevated deaths in their populations. This impact appears generally independent of healthcare systems and population health. This trend is evident even after accounting for shifting population sizes, and the range of reporting mechanisms and death classifications that make inter-country comparisons complex. There is also likely a degree of excess mortality under-reporting.

Quantifying excess mortality has been an acute challenge since 2020 due to the exceptional mortality rates of the pandemic. Excess mortality refers to the number of deaths over and above an assumed “expected” number of deaths. The different methods of estimating expected mortality can generate very different excess mortality rates.

This represents a potential challenge for Life and Health (L&H) insurance, with potentially several years of elevated mortality claims ahead, depending on how general population trends translate into the insured population. Ongoing excess mortality can have implications for L&H insurance claims and reserves. Excess mortality that continues to exceed current expectations may affect the long-term performance of in-force life portfolios as well as the pricing of new life policies.

Author(s): By Daniel Meier, Life & Health R&D Manager, CUO L&H Reinsurance & Prachi Patkee, Life & Health R&D Analyst, CUO L&H Reinsurance & Adam Strange, Life & Health R&D Manager, CUO L&H Reinsurance

Publication Date: 16 Sept 2024

Publication Site: Swiss Re Institute

Fed slashes interest rates by a half point, an aggressive start to its first easing campaign in four years

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/18/fed-cuts-rates-september-2024-.html

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WASHINGTON – The Federal Reserve on Wednesday enacted its first interest rate cut since the early days of the Covid pandemic, slicing half a percentage point off benchmark rates in an effort to head off a slowdown in the labor market.

With both the jobs picture and inflation softening, the central bank’s Federal Open Market Committee chose to lower its key overnight borrowing rate by a half percentage point, or 50 basis points, affirming market expectations that had recently shifted from an outlook for a cut half that size.

Outside of the emergency rate reductions during Covid, the last time the FOMC cut by half a point was in 2008 during the global financial crisis.

The decision lowers the federal funds rate to a range between 4.75%-5%. While the rate sets short-term borrowing costs for banks, it spills over into multiple consumer products such as mortgages, auto loans and credit cards.

In addition to this reduction, the committee indicated through its “dot plot” the equivalent of 50 more basis points of cuts by the end of the year, close to market pricing. The matrix of individual officials’ expectations pointed to another full percentage point in cuts by the end of 2025 and a half point in 2026. In all, the dot plot shows the benchmark rate coming down about 2 percentage points beyond Wednesday’s move.

Author(s): Jeff Cox

Publication Date: 18 Sept 2024

Publication Site: CNBC

The Mortality After Release from Incarceration Consortium (MARIC): Protocol for a multi-national, individual participant data meta-analysis

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://ijpds.org/article/view/1145

doi: 10.23889/ijpds.v5i1.1145

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Abstract

Introduction
More than 30 million adults are released from incarceration globally each year. Many experience complex physical and mental health problems, and are at markedly increased risk of preventable mortality. Despite this, evidence regarding the global epidemiology of mortality following release from incarceration is insufficient to inform the development of targeted, evidence-based responses. Many previous studies have suffered from inadequate power and poor precision, and even large studies have limited capacity to disaggregate data by specific causes of death, sub-populations or time since release to answer questions of clinical and public health relevance.

Objectives
To comprehensively document the incidence, timing, causes and risk factors for mortality in adults released from prison.

Methods
We created the Mortality After Release from Incarceration Consortium (MARIC), a multi-disciplinary collaboration representing 29 cohorts of adults who have experienced incarceration from 11 countries. Findings across cohorts will be analysed using a two-step, individual participant data meta-analysis methodology.

Results
The combined sample includes 1,337,993 individuals (89% male), with 75,795 deaths recorded over 9,191,393 person-years of follow-up.

Conclusions
The consortium represents an important advancement in the field, bringing international attention to this problem. It will provide internationally relevant evidence to guide policymakers and clinicians in reducing preventable deaths in this marginalized population.

Author(s): Borschmann, R., Tibble, H., Spittal, M. J., Preen, D., Pirkis, J., Larney, S., Rosen, D. L., Young, J. T., Love, A. D., Altice, F. L., Binswanger, I. A., Bukten, A., Butler, T., Chang, Z., Chen, C.-Y., Clausen, T., Christensen, P. B., Culbert, G. J., Degenhardt, L., Dirkzwager, A. J., Dolan, K., Fazel, S., Fischbacher, C., Giles, M., Graham, L., Harding, D., Huang, Y.-F., Huber, F., Karaminia, A., Kouyoumdjian, F. G., Lim, S., Møller, L., Moniruzzaman, A., Morenoff, J., O’Moore, E., Pizzicato, L. N., Pratt, D., Proescholdbell, S. F., Ranapurwala, S. I., Shanahan, M. E., Shaw, J., Slaunwhite, A., Somers, J. M., Spaulding, A. C., Stern, M. F., Viner, K. M., Wang, N., Willoughby, M., Zhao, B. and Kinner, S. A. 

Publication Date: February 2020

Publication Site: International Journal of Population Data Science

Interest Rates Are Too High. The Fed Should Cut by a Half Point.

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/interest-rates-are-too-high-the-fed-should-cut-by-a-half-point-e7855ea8

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A year ago inflation as measured by the consumer-price index was 3.2%. In August, it was 2.5%. In that time, core inflation, which excludes food and energy, has fallen from 4.2% to an estimated 2.7%, using the Fed’s preferred gauge, the price index of personal-consumption expenditures, or PCE.

The gap between 2.7% and the Fed’s 2% target largely reflects the lagged effects of higher housing, auto and other prices from a few years ago. Some alternative indexes attempt to exclude such idiosyncratic factors. Harvard University economist Jason Furman averages several over different time horizons to yield a single, PCE-equivalent underlying inflation rate. It was 2.2% in August, the lowest since early 2021.

Inflation is likely to keep falling. Oil has plunged from $83 a barrel in early July to below $70 on Friday. This will directly lower headline inflation and, indirectly, core inflation because oil is an input into almost every business. A study by Robert Minton, now at the Fed, and Brian Wheaton at the University of California, Los Angeles, found oil can explain 16% of fluctuations in core inflation, and it takes two years for 80% of the effect to show up.

Author(s): Greg Ip

Publication Date: 15 Sept 2024

Publication Site: WSJ

Suddenly, there’s a 59 Percent Chance of Half-Point Interest Rate Cut by the Fed

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://mishtalk.com/economics/suddenly-theres-a-59-percent-chance-of-half-point-interest-rate-cut-by-the-fed/

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A month ago I expected a 50 basis point cut by the Fed based on weakening data.

The data weakened alright, but following the the CPI report last Wednesday, I checked the odds at 15 percent.

Late Sunday, I decided to check the probabilities again and captured the above chart.

There was a huge rally in the odds on Thursday and Friday as noted by the Wall Street Journal in the chart below.

Author(s): Mike Shedlock

Publication Date: 16 Sept 2024

Publication Site: Mish Talk

ERISA: Reflecting On 50 Years And Looking To The Future

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.forbes.com/sites/dandoonan/2024/09/02/erisa-reflecting-on-50-years-and-looking-to-the-future/


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This year is a major milestone for the retirement industry as the Employee Retirement Income Security Act of 1974 (ERISA) reaches its 50th anniversary today.

ERISA is the federal law that for the first time set important standards for most voluntarily established retirement and health plans in the private sector to protect individual participants and beneficiaries. Key provisions of ERISA require plans to provide participants with essential plan information; set minimum standards for participation, vesting, benefit accrual, and funding; establish fiduciary responsibilities for those who manage plan assets; and guarantee payment of benefits through the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation (PBGC) for terminated defined benefit pension plans.

There are numerous ERISA successes to celebrate, but there also are challenges associated with the law that can be addressed to help create better retirement outcomes in the future.

Major Successes of ERISA

ERISA has helped Americans prioritize saving for retirement through employer plans at a key juncture when people are living longer. When ERISA was enacted, defined benefit pension plans were the primary type of retirement plan offered by private sector employers.

Thanks in part to ERISA, U.S. pension plans have paid out roughly $8.7 trillion dollars to America’s seniors just since 2009. According to the Investment Company Institute, another $12 trillion in assets are held by pension plans that invest and manage these funds for the benefit of 25 million retirees and millions of workers. Pensions continue to do much of the heavy lifting to preserve a reasonable standard of living for retirees by supplementing Social Security benefits.

Another success of ERISA is that it provides a wide range of protections to workers to ensure retirement assets go toward workers’ retirement benefits and employers are adequately funding these plans. ERISA also created a federal insurance program directed by the PBGC that protects retirement benefits, even if a plan closes or a company goes out of business. Importantly, the program is funded by premiums paid by pension funds, not taxpayers. Typically, the PBGC steps in to oversee plan assets and ensure payment of benefits after a firm ceases to exist. This has proven to be an incredibly successful program, protecting millions of retirees and their beneficiaries.




Author(s): Dan Doonan

Dan Doonan is executive director of the National Institute on Retirement Security, a non-partisan, non-profit research think tank located in Washington, D.C. Dan has been a Forbes Contributor since 2021, and he has more than 25 years of experience on retirement issues from a variety of vantage points – an analyst, consultant and plan trustee. His work is driven by the belief that everyone has a shared interest in a strong and resilient retirement infrastructure in the U.S. that provides sufficient retirement income in the most cost-efficient manner possible. Dan holds a B.S. in Mathematics from Elizabethtown College and is a member of the National Academy of Social Insurance.
 


Publication Date: 2 Sept 2024


Publication Site: Forbes

A Tale of Data Visualization: Inspiration, Imitation, and Tribute

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://jschwabish.substack.com/p/a-tale-of-data-visualization-inspiration

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Let’s look at another set of paired charts. These two graphs, one from the EC just last week and the other from Bloomberg in 2014, both use a series of tall and narrow slope charts to compare two values.

In this case, I wouldn’t argue that the EC should attribute Bloomberg’s—after all, they are just slope charts, the topics are different, and the overall design is different. As some other people pointed on out LinkedIn, a designer may begin creating with an echo of another design in their head but not be able pinpoint it (not to mention that some projects no longer live online).

The question remains: where do we draw the line between inspiration and recreation? Is 13 years long enough for a graphic to enter the “pantheon” of visualization techniques, thereby no longer requiring attribution? Or does the uniqueness of the Scarr piece mean that it should always be credited when reused or adapted?

It’s a tough question, and one without an easy answer. It’s clear from Sebastian’s response that he was inspired by Scarr’s original, so my preference would have been to include a citation or reference. But honestly, I’m not even sure where the attribution should go! Maybe under the Source line, or maybe in the Created by line that appears not in the graph but in the newsletter email itself? More questions without clear answers.

In the end, it’s about respecting the creative process. As creators, we all draw from what’s come before us—whether consciously or subconsciously. Acknowledging the work that inspires us not only gives credit where it’s due but also fosters a culture of openness and honesty. It shows respect for our peers and for the community as a whole.

I want to be very clear: this discussion in no way diminishes the fabulous work from The European Correspondent team. I have very much been enjoying their work and I love how they are taking chances with their design decisions, trying new designs and graph types, and being inspired by what people have created before! I’ve been impressed with their ability to distill complex data into short, engaging stories and the near-daily innovative and interesting graphs and charts. I find myself bookmarking two or three of their graphs each week, and adding them to my dataviz catalog. I highly recommend you subscribe to their newsletter. Even if you’re not keenly interested in European news, they are doing some great data visualization work on an almost daily basis, no small feat on its own.

Author(s): Jon Schwabish

Publication Date: 27 Aug 2024

Publication Site: PolicyViz newsletter at substack