Suddenly, there’s a 59 Percent Chance of Half-Point Interest Rate Cut by the Fed

Link: https://mishtalk.com/economics/suddenly-theres-a-59-percent-chance-of-half-point-interest-rate-cut-by-the-fed/

Graphic:

Excerpt:

A month ago I expected a 50 basis point cut by the Fed based on weakening data.

The data weakened alright, but following the the CPI report last Wednesday, I checked the odds at 15 percent.

Late Sunday, I decided to check the probabilities again and captured the above chart.

There was a huge rally in the odds on Thursday and Friday as noted by the Wall Street Journal in the chart below.

Author(s): Mike Shedlock

Publication Date: 16 Sept 2024

Publication Site: Mish Talk