Category: Climate

Finance Group Fails To Deliver at COP26

Mary Pat Campbell

Link:https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2021/11/finance-group-fails-to-deliver-at-cop26.html

Excerpt:

Not One of 60 Major Commercial Banks Has ‘Leadership Position on Decarbonizing’

Yet the trend line of bank finance for fossil fuels is rising not declining, and not a single big commercial bank has released a plan to stop financing new fossil fuels.

It’s striking that unlike any of other sectors implicated in speeding global warming, not a single one of the 60 major commercial banks has staked out a leadership position on decarbonizing.

On the other labelled days of COP, there were all kinds of interesting mash-ups of governments, private sector actors, and think tanks offering a web of creative announcements about their determination to set ambition on one thing or another. By contrast, on Private Finance Day, the one and only announcement was relating to GFANZ. Banks and investors didn’t even try to push out additional good ideas. Everyone covered themselves in the GFANZ penumbra and then went quiet.

Author(s): Michael Northrop

Publication Date: 30 Nov 2021

Publication Site: naked capitalism

Equity, tech and climate change: Three big takeaways from the infrastructure bill

Mary Pat Campbell

Link:https://lizfarmer.substack.com/p/equity-tech-climate-change-infrastructure-bill

Excerpt:

Green bonds. Issuance is expected to hit a record high this year and so are municipal green bond offerings. My friend and colleague Mark Funkhouser explains why local leaders should take advantage of this alignment of financial interests and moral ones.

More spending flexibility in the American Rescue Plan. Legislation now making its way through Congress would allow governments to use some of their ARP funds for highway and transit projects and to address natural disasters.

Rising income tax revenue. The K-shaped recovery and federal stimulus has resulted in the largest median state personal income jump in 14 years. According to Fitch Ratings, state income tax revenues increased by 6.3% last year and this year is expected to produce similar growth. This has implications for public pensions, tax cuts and — of course — the 2022 midterms.

Author(s): Liz Farmer

Publication Date: 17 Nov 2021

Publication Site: Long Story Short at substack

Jerry Theodorou on Natural Disasters and Insurance

Mary Pat Campbell

Link:https://www.c-span.org/video/?514314-3/washington-journal-jerry-theodorou-discusses-natural-disasters-insurance

Excerpt: [transcript from closed captioning]

Jerry Theodorou
IT IS HARD TO CALCULATE. THE INSURANCE INDUSTRY WAS FACED WITH MASSIVE FLOOD LOSSES BUT FOUND THAT IT DID NOT HAVE THE DATA TO PRICE IT ACCURATELY. IT STARTED REDUCING AND EXCLUDING FLOOD FROM STANDARD INSURANCE POLICIES AND THE GOVERNMENT STEPPED IN TO CREATE THE PROGRAM. TO PROVIDE SOME LEVEL OF FLOOD INSURANCE. THERE IS AN INHERENT TENSION IN THE PROGRAM BECAUSE IT HAS TWO GOALS IN CONTENTION WITH EACH OTHER. THE GOAL TO PROVIDE AFFORDABLE FLOOD INSURANCE AND SOME DEGREE OF FISCAL SOUNDNESS. THEY ARE PAYING ABOUT $400 BILLION IN INTEREST, WHICH IS A BURDEN, SO IF WE FOCUS STRICTLY ON AFFORDABILITY, YOU WILL HAVE UNDERPRICED INSURANCE, NOT PRICED ACCORDING TO THE ACTUAL VOLUME. THIS IS WHAT IS HAPPENING NOW WITH LARGELY IMPACT — OVERPRICED INSURANCE. FOCUSING ON FISCAL SOUNDNESS, YOU WILL HAVE THOSE EXPOSED. IT IS A LITTLE BIT OF A BALANCE. DO YOU WANT FISCAL SOUNDNESS? PROBABLY A LITTLE BIT OF BOTH, WHICH IS MY NEXT MONTH, OCTOBER 1, THE NEW BEATING WILL BE INTRODUCED TO MAKE IT MAKE THE PRICING AND THE COST OF FLOOD INSURANCE MORE APPROPRIATE FOR THE LEVEL OF RISK. IT IS EITHER OR. IF YOU LIVE IN A FLOOD ZONE, YOU PAY HIGHER PREMIUMS. IT IS NOT BLACK-AND-WHITE BECAUSE THERE IS A SPECTRUM FOR THE DEGREE OF RISK. IT WILL INTRODUCE MORE VARIABLES SO THAT IT IS MORE APPROPRIATELY CORRELATED WITH THE LEVEL OF RISK.

Author(s): Jerry Theodorou, John McArdle

Publication Date: 5 Sept 2021

Publication Site: C-SPAN, Washington Journal

Your New Woke 401(k)

Mary Pat Campbell

Link:https://www.wsj.com/articles/your-new-woke-401-k-retirement-savings-esg-erisa-biden-administration-department-of-labor-proposal-11634753095

Excerpt:

While Democrats in Congress negotiate over trillions of dollars in new spending, the Biden Administration is quietly advancing its agenda through regulation. Witness a little-noticed proposed rule last week by the Labor Department that will add new political directives to your retirement savings.

The Administration says the rule will make it easier for retirement plans to offer 401(k) funds focused on ESG (environmental, social and governance) objectives. In fact, the rule will coerce workers and businesses into supporting progressive policies.

An important Trump Labor rule last fall reinforced that the Employee Retirement Income Security Act (Erisa) requires retirement plan fiduciaries to act “solely in the interest” of participants. The rule prevented pension plans and asset managers from considering ESG factors like climate, workforce diversity and political donations unless they had a “material effect on the return and risk of an investment.”

The Biden DOL plans to scrap the Trump rule while putting retirement sponsors and asset managers on notice that they have a fiduciary duty to include ESG in investment decisions. The proposed rule “makes clear that climate change and other ESG factors are often material” and thus in many instances should be considered “in the assessment of investment risks and returns.”

Author(s): WSJ editorial board

Publication Date: 20 Oct 2021

Publication Site: WSJ

Flood-Threat Assessment Finds Danger Goes Far Beyond U.S. Homes

Mary Pat Campbell

Link:https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2021-flood-risk-critical-infrastructure/

Graphic:

Excerpt:

Nearly a quarter of U.S. critical infrastructure—utilities, airports, police stations and more—is at risk of being inundated by flooding, according to a new report by First Street Foundation, a Brooklyn nonprofit dedicated to making climate risk more visible to the public.

Roughly 14% of Americans’ properties face direct risk from major storms, but the study shows danger extends far from those property lines.

The authors say the report provides the first holistic understanding of flood risk beyond individual property level. In addition to critical infrastructure, the report assesses commercial buildings, millions of miles of roads and socially important institutions such as schools and museums.

“Even if your home is far from the risk of flooding or forest fires, you may not so easily escape the systemic impacts from vulnerable critical infrastructure that sometimes extends hundreds of miles,” said Jesse Keenan, a climate-change and real-estate expert at Tulane University in New Orleans.

Author(s): Leslie Kaufman, Rachael Dottle, Mira Rojanasakul

Publication Date: 11 October 2021

Publication Site: Bloomberg

California Extreme heat deaths show climate change risks

Mary Pat Campbell

Link:https://www.latimes.com/projects/california-extreme-heat-deaths-show-climate-change-risks/

Graphic:

Excerpt:

Between 2010 and 2019, the hottest decade on record, California’s official data from death certificates attributed 599 deaths to heat exposure.

But a Times analysis found that the true toll is probably six times higher. An examination of mortality data from this period shows that thousands more people died on extremely hot days than would have been typical during milder weather. All told, the analysis estimates that extreme heat caused about 3,900 deaths.

….

California’s undercount is one of the ways it overlooks the threat posed by heat waves, even as climate change delivers them more frequently, more intensely and with deadlier consequences. Other states are moving with greater urgency to confront this public health challenge that disproportionately imperils the elderly and vulnerable.

Extreme heat did not suddenly become a threat to Californians’ lives. The Times found that state leaders have ignored years of warnings from within their own agencies that heat was becoming more dangerous. Data reviewed by The Times show heat-related hospital visits increasing in some parts of California, including Los Angeles County, for at least the last 15 years.

Github: https://github.com/datadesk/extreme-heat-excess-deaths-analysis

Author(s): Anna M. Phillips, Tony Barboza, Ruben Vives, Sean Greene

Publication Date: 7 Oct 2021

Publication Site: LA Times

Average Annual Temperature for Select Countries and Global Scale

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://github.com/resource-watch/blog-analysis/tree/master/req_016_facebook_average_surface_temperature

Description:

This file describes analysis that was done by the Resource Watch team for Facebook to be used to display increased temperatures for select countries in their newly launched Climate Science Information Center. The goal of this analysis is to calculate the average monthly and annual temperatures in numerous countries at the national and state/provincial level and globally from 1950 through 2020.

Check out the Climate Science Information Center (CSIC) for up to date information on climate data in your area from trusted sources. And go to Resource Watch to explore over 300 datasets covering topics from food, forests, water, oceans, cities, energy, climate, and society. This analysis was originally performed by Kristine Lister and was QC’d by Weiqi Zhou.

Author: Kristine Lister

Date Accessed: 12 Oct 2021

Location: github

Investigating the Mass Hysteria Over 1 Degree in Climate Change Since 1850

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://mishtalk.com/economics/investigating-the-mass-hysteria-over-1-degree-in-climate-change-since-1850

Graphic:

Excerpt:

Temperatures have risen a a best estimate of 1.07°C since 1850 due to man-made causes.

The sea rise between 1971 and 2006 was 1.3 mm per year. That’s 0.0511811 inches per year. 

The sea rise between 2006 and 2018 was 3.7 mm per year. That’s 0.145669 inches per year.

Under all emissions scenarios, global warming of 1.5°C and 2°C will be exceeded during the 21st century.

Author(s): Mike Shedlock

Publication Date: 5 September 2021

Publication Site: Mish Talk

Let’s Review 50 Years of Dire Climate Forecasts and What Actually Happened

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://mishtalk.com/economics/lets-review-50-years-of-dire-climate-forecasts-and-what-actually-happened

Graphic:

Excerpt:

1970 Boston Globe: Scientist Predicts New Ice Age by 21st Century said James P. Lodge, a scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research.
1971 Washington Post: Disastrous New Ice Age Coming says S.I. Rasool at NASA.
1972 Brown University Letter to President Nixon: Warning on Global Cooling
1974 The Guardian: Space Satellites Show Ice Age Coming Fast

…..

1989 Salon: New York City’s West Side Highway underwater by 2019 said Jim Hansen the scientist who lectured Congress in 1988 about the greenhouse effect.
2000 The Independent: “Snowfalls are a thing of the past. Our children will not know what snow is,” says senior climate researcher.
2004 The Guardian: The Pentagon Tells Bush Climate Change Will Destroy Us. “Britain will be Siberian in less than 20 years,” the Pentagon told Bush.

…..

2013 The Guardian: US Navy Predicts Ice Free Arctic by 2016. “The US Navy’s department of Oceanography uses complex modeling to makes its forecast more accurate than others.
2014 John Kerry: “We have 500 days to Avoid Climate Chaos” discussed Sec of State John Kerry and French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabious at a joint meeting.

Author(s): Mike Shedlock

Publication Date: 18 February 2021

Publication Site: Mish Talk

Insurance Futures: Global trends and issues reshaping the insurance landscape to 2035

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.internationalinsurance.org/sites/default/files/2021-07/Milliman_Insurance_futures_compilation_7.2021_2.pdf

Graphic:

Excerpt:

The long-term security of coastal regions depends not simply on climate, oceans and geography,
but on multiple local factors, from the politics of foreign aid and investor confidence, to the
quality of resilience-oriented designs and ‘managed retreat’.


Take some examples. In 2017, the drought in Cape Town and lack of resilient water infrastructure
led to a downgrade by Moody’s. Wildfires in the Trinity Public Utilities District in California
led to similar downgrades in 2019. Moody’s have developed a ‘heat map’3 that shows the credit
exposure to environmental risk across sectors representing US$74.6 trillion in debt. In the short
term, the unregulated utilities and power companies are exposed to ‘elevated risk’. The risks to
automobile manufacturers, oil and gas independents and transport companies are growing.
Blackrock’s report from April 2019, focused primarily on physical climate risk, showed that
securities backed by commercial real estate mortgages could be confronted with losses of up
to 3.8 per cent due to storm and flood related cash flow shortages.4 Climate change has already
reduced local GDP, with Miami top of the list. The report was amongst the first to link high-level
climate risk to location analysis of assets such as plants, property and equipment.


In other words, adaptation and resilience options are also uniquely local. The outcomes hinge
on mapping long-term interdependencies to predict physical world changes and explore how
core economic and social systems transition to a sustainable world.

Publication Date: July 2021

Publication Site: International Insurance Society

We’re Going The Wrong Way

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.dailyposter.com/were-going-the-wrong-way/

Graphic:

Excerpt:

Science has provided America with a decent idea of which areas of our country will be most devastated by climate change, and which areas will be most insulated from the worst effects. Unfortunately, it seems that population flows are going in the wrong direction — today’s new Census data shows a nation moving out of the safer areas and into some of the most dangerous places of all.

…..

Some of the examples are genuinely mind-boggling. For instance, upstate New York is considered one of the country’s most insulated regions in the climate crisis — and yet almost all of upstate New York saw population either nearly flat or declining. At the same time, there were big population increases in and around the Texas gulf coast, which is threatened by extreme heat and coastal flooding.

Similarly, the city of Philadelphia is comparatively well situated in the climate crisis — but it saw only modest population growth of 5 percent. It was surpassed on the list of biggest cities by Phoenix, which saw an 11 percent population growth, despite that city facing some of the worst forms of extreme heat and drought in the entire country.

Author(s): David Sirota, Julia Rock

Publication Date: 12 August 2021

Publication Site: The Daily Poster

Skip the fireworks this record-dry 4th of July, over 150 wildfire scientists urge the US West

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://theconversation.com/skip-the-fireworks-this-record-dry-4th-of-july-over-150-wildfire-scientists-urge-the-us-west-163561

Graphic:

Excerpt:

For decades, one of the most striking and predictable patterns of human behavior in the western U.S. has been people accidentally starting fires on the Fourth of July. From 1992 to 2015, more than 7,000 wildfires started in the U.S. on July 4 – the most wildfires ignited on any day during the year. And most of these are near homes.

Author(s): Philip Higuera, Alexander L. Metcalf, Dave McWethy, Jennifer Balch

Publication Date: 1 July 2021

Publication Site: The Conversation