Tag: Germany

German death figures 2023 – almost back to normal, still a disturbing overall picture

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://ulflorr.substack.com/p/german-death-figures-2023-almost

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Destatis yesterday published deaths figures for the whole of 2023. In order to obtain a reliable assessment of the situation, I calculated the weekly time series of life expectancy, applied an ARIMA forecast from the reference epoch 2016-2020 and compared it with the actual values. In this way, results are now available for all 4 pandemic years to date (Fig. 1)

Author(s): Ulf Lorre

Publication Date: 10 Jan 2024

Publication Site: Demographic Data Analysis

Excess mortality and life expectancy

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://ulflorr.substack.com/p/excess-mortality-and-life-expectancy

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Fig. 1: Annual values of life expectancy in Germany with fit (blue). The fit did not respect the values for 2021 and 2022.

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Life expectancy is relatively difficult to calculate. The mortality risk has to be determined from death and population figures for each individual year of life. A hurdle is that data are often only available in age cohorts. So the missing values have to be interpolated. Using the mortality risks, a fictitious newborn cohort is projected forward year by year until all have died. A weighted average value is calculated from those who died each year in this modeled time series, yielding the life expectancy.

Life expectancy in Germany increased for many years until 2020, allthough this trend seemed to be gradually approaching a saturation point, which might be around 82 years (Fig. 1).

Author(s): ULF LORRÉ

Publication Date: 30 Mar 2023

Publication Site: Demographic Data Analysis

German pensions could rise by up to 4.2% in 2023 – proposal

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/german-pensions-could-rise-by-up-42-2023-proposal-2022-11-05/

Excerpt:

BERLIN, Nov 5 (Reuters) – Germany’s more than 20 million pensioners will likely see their state benefit rise by up to 4.2% from July 2023, according to a governemt proposal seen by Reuters, lower than the expected inflation rate of 7.0%.

The state pension in western Germany will rise by 3.5%, while in former East Germany it will increase by 4.2% according to the draft, as the government continues to narrow the gap between the two regions.

Author(s): Holger Hansen, Christoph Steitz

Publication Date: 5 Nov 2022

Publication Site: Reuters

Deutsche Bank raided by authorities over ESG ‘greenwashing’ claims: ‘We’ve found evidence that that could support allegations of prospectus fraud’

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://fortune.com/2022/05/31/deutsche-bank-dws-esg-greenwashing-raid-evidence-seized-whistleblower-fixler/

Excerpt:

German law enforcement officials raided the offices of Deutsche Bank on suspicion of the fraudulent advertising of sustainable investment funds at its DWS unit, dealing yet another setback to CEO Christian Sewing’s attempts to move on from years of corruption scandals.

The investigation revolves around allegations—leveled by a former DWS manager—that the retail money management business engaged in “greenwashing,” in which environmental, social and governance (ESG) investments are sold under false claims.

Roughly 50 officials from the Frankfurt public prosecutor, German securities regulator BaFin, and the federal criminal police office BKA were deployed to the headquarters of the two financial institutions to seize evidence on Tuesday.

“The allegations are that DWS has been advertising so-called ESG financial products for sale as being particularly green and sustainable when they actually weren’t,” a spokesman for the public prosecutor told Fortune, which has been looking into the claims since January. “In the course of our investigations we’ve found evidence that could support allegations of prospectus fraud.”

Author(s): CHRISTIAAN HETZNER

Publication Date: 31 May 2022

Publication Site: Fortune

November 14-20, 1921

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://roaring20s.substack.com/p/november-14-1921

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Historical Fact: Some readers may have a pressing question: What happens to debt, including mortgages, under hyperinflation? In finance, there is a popular quote, “there is no free lunch.” By 1924, Weimar Germany will redenominate and reinstate debt into the brand new Rentenmark after bailing out Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank. It’s a messy process and beyond the scope of this publication you’re reading.

Author(s): Tate

Publication Date: 14 Nov 2021

Publication Site: Roaring 20s at substack

October 17-23, 1921

Mary Pat Campbell

Link:https://roaring20s.substack.com/p/october-17-1921

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The prominent German industrialist Hugo Stinnes suggests a fringe dictatorship might seize power because the poorly drawn up armistice extracts too great a toll on the Teutonic nation. He reckons that one of the infant right wing parties could take power some day. Whatever the case, trouble is brewing.

Author(s): Tate

Publication Date: 17 Oct 2021

Publication Site: Roaring 20s

Why has America’s vaccination programme slowed so much?

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2021/07/08/why-has-americas-vaccination-programme-slowed-so-much?utm_campaign=the-economist-today&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_source=salesforce-marketing-cloud&utm_term=2021-07-08&utm_content=article-link-6&etear=nl_today_6

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ON JULY 4TH President Joe Biden stood on the White House lawn to declare that America was nearing independence from the coronavirus. But with covid-19 not fully “vanquished”, he called upon his fellow citizens to get vaccinated, telling them that “it’s the most patriotic thing you can do.” About 55% of Americans over the age of 12 have now been fully vaccinated, and a further 10% have had the first of two doses. But in recent weeks America’s vaccination rate has slowed markedly. In April 3m doses were administered each day; since June that figure has fallen to an average of 1m per day.

There are three possible explanations for this slow-down. The first is that it is typical for vaccination rates to fall as more people are jabbed, since those in cities and other easy-to-reach areas are likely to have been targeted already. Yet America does not appear to have reached such a threshold. Other rich countries, such as sparsely populated Canada, continued to vaccinate at a decent clip until about 75% of their populations had received their first dose (see left-hand chart). Germany, which has vaccinated a similar proportion of its citizens as America, is currently vaccinating at nearly three times the rate.

Publication Date: 8 July 2021

Publication Site: The Economist

Germany federal fiscal court demands changes to pension taxation

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.jurist.org/news/2021/06/germany-federal-fiscal-court-demands-changes-to-pension-taxation/

Excerpt:

Germany’s Federal Fiscal Court, the Bundesfinanzhof, demanded changes Monday to pension taxation to avoid future double taxation of retirement savings.

Prior to 2005, pensions had been basically tax-exempt because contributions came from taxed salaries. Under a 2005 law change, pension contribution payments gradually become tax-free. However, the taxable share of the pension increased. Because of the change, there is the potential of double taxation during the transition period if the tax-exempt portion of the pension is less than the contributions made earlier from taxed salaries.

A married couple who were assessed together for income tax purposes in 2009 filed a complaint against the rules, alleging that their 2009 tax assessment was unlawful. The court rejected the complaint as unfounded, stating that the plaintiffs had not been violated of their rights.

Author(s): Cassie Maas

Publication Date: 1 June 2021

Publication Site: Jurist

The older you get, the higher your life expectancy

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://blog.datawrapper.de/the-older-you-get-the-higher-your-life-expectancy/

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But here’s what I only started to understand last week (and I was kind of mind-blown by that, so I’m thrilled to share it with you): Our life expectancy increases with every minute we live. When I turned 30, my life expectancy got up to 90.37 years. Once I turn 80, it’ll be 93.76 years.

Author(s): Lisa Charlotte Rost

Publication Date: 25 March 2021

Publication Site: Datawrapper

COVID: German doctors call for 2-week hard lockdown

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.dw.com/en/covid-german-doctors-call-for-2-week-hard-lockdown/a-57023394

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Germany’s intensive care doctors have called for a two-week hard lockdown in order to avoid overwhelming the health care system.

A mix of hard lockdown, vaccinations and testing is necessary to “prevent intensive care units from being overflowed,” the head of the German Interdisciplinary Association for Intensive Care and Emergency Medicine, Christian Karagiannidis, told the Rheinische Post newspaper.

His comments come as Germany battles a third wave of coronavirus infections.

Publication Date: 17 March 2021

Publication Site: Deutsche Welle

Coronavirus: Germany’s Merkel reverses plans for Easter lockdown

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-56513366

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German Chancellor Angela Merkel has cancelled plans for a strict lockdown over Easter, just a day after the measures were announced.

Calling the plan a “mistake”, Mrs Merkel said she took “ultimate responsibility” for the U-turn.

The proposed lockdown was agreed with regional leaders in talks overnight on Monday, with restrictions set to be tightened between 1-5 April.

But the plan was reversed following a crisis meeting on Wednesday.

Author(s): Jenny Hill

Publication Date: 25 March 2021

Publication Site: BBC News

Pausing AstraZeneca COVID-19 Shots Is a Bad Risk/Benefit Call

Mary Pat Campbell
Pausing AstraZeneca COVID-19 Shots Is a Bad Risk/Benefit Call

Excerpt:

Last week Austria, Norway, Denmark, and Iceland all suspended the administration of the Oxford-AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine, citing reports of blood clots occurring in a few folks who had been inoculated with it. Ireland, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Thailand, and the Netherlands have now joined them.

“There is no causal effect established or anything like that yet,” Irish Prime Minister Micheal Martin told CNBC, “but as a precautionary move in line with the precautionary principle and in an abundance of caution, our clinical advice was to pause the program whilst the EMA does a review of this.”

The precautionary principle is an ideological construct that eschews risk-benefit evaluations and essentially requires that all new technologies be somehow proved entirely risk-free before they can be used.

Author(s): Ronald Bailey

Publication Date: 15 March 2021

Publication Site: Reason