Tag: inflation

High Inflation Leads to Expensive Cost-of-Living Adjustments for CalPERS and Others

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.ai-cio.com/news/high-inflation-leads-to-expensive-cost-of-living-adjustments-for-calpers-and-others/

Excerpt:

With big returns come big expenses. That’s what seems to be the case for pensions across the country, as they are forced to increase their payouts to beneficiaries due to inflation. While the past year has been a record breaker for pension fund returns, inflation will be claiming its fair share of the gains as well.

For CalPERS members, those who retired between 2006 and 2014 will receive the biggest increase at 4.7%. This will be the largest cost-of-living increase for beneficiaries in the past 32 years, dating to 1990.

While the Bureau of Labor Statistics has estimated the Consumer Price Index to have increased by 7% over  2021, CalPERS is not using the 7% to calculate its increased payments. Instead, it uses an average of each month’s numbers.

CalSTRS similarly also has built in inflation protection, thanks to a California law that requires public pensions to do so. However, CalSTRS’ method of calculating this payment is slightly different. The fund gives quarterly supplement payments to those whose annual benefit falls below 85% of their original benefit. This year’s inflation numbers will likely increase the number of supplemental payments that CalSTRS in forced to provide.

Author(s): Anna Gordon

Publication Date: 1 Mar 2022

Publication Site: ai-CIO

Ten Most Dangerous Risks for Insurers

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://mcusercontent.com/991483cca1a8e7eb050cff8bd/files/7dfc14f1-eaa5-5658-64a3-54f5c5e1955f/1Q2022_SRSE_Dangerous_Risks.pdf

Excerpt:

This year we had record participation with
over 250 insurance professionals taking part.
This is the fifth iteration of this poll and 2022
shows some consistency along with some very
new risks. Inflation, Employee retention and
Ability to hire new employees are three new
risks to the top of this poll, but they should
not be surprises.

….

2. INFLATION
Up very sharply – Previously #52
Prices are rising faster than they have since the
1980s in most of the developed world. Insurers
will be hit with a double whammy as the real
value of invested assets decays and the cost of
doing business and claims costs increases at the
same time.

EMPLOYEE RETENTION
Not on the list previously
The Great Resignation makes the headlines.
COVID seems to have accelerated the timeline
for the inevitable wave of Boomer retirements.
Also concerning are the numbers leaving due to
health care burnout and caregiver
responsibilities. The problem for insurers is
figuring out how to respond to the massive loss
of experience.

Author(s): Actuarial Risk Management

Publication Date: Accessed 8 Mar 2022

Hit hard by high inflation? This N.J. income tax move could bring relief, lawmakers say.

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.nj.com/politics/2022/03/hit-hard-by-high-inflation-this-nj-income-tax-move-could-bring-relief-lawmakers-say.html

Excerpt:

A six-year old income tax reform bill accomplished something remarkable in Trenton on Monday: It got Democratic and Republican lawmakers to agree on changing your tax policy.

The state Senate Budget and Appropriations Committee approved a Republican-backed measure, S676, that’s supposed to provide relief to New Jersey workers struggling to make ends meet amid the highest inflation levels in 40 years.

The concept is simple: If inflation goes up, so would New Jersey’s income tax brackets. For many, it would mean not having to pay higher taxes if salaries go up the rate of inflation.

…..

New Jersey uses a graduated income tax, which means residents shell out a larger percentage of earnings to the state as their incomes rise into higher tax brackets. When inflation pushes wages higher, it can often result in a net loss to workers that are pushed into higher brackets.

Author(s): Derek Hall

Publication Date: 2 Mar 2022

Publication Site: nj.com

CPI Jumps Most Since February 1982, Up at Least 0.5% 9 Out of Eleven Months

Mary Pat Campbell

Link:https://mishtalk.com/economics/cpi-jumps-most-since-february-1982-up-at-least-0-5-9-out-of-eleven-months

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Excerpt:

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.6 percent in January on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The index for all items less food and energy also rose 0.6 percent in January, the same increase as in December. 

This was the 9th time in the last 11 months the CPI increased at least 0.5 percent.

Increases in the indexes for food, electricity, and shelter were the largest contributors to the seasonally adjusted all items increase in January.

Author(s): Mike Shedlock

Publication Date: 10 Feb 2022

Publication Site: Mish Talk

Public Pension Systems Pared Costs and Assumptions in 2021, NCPERS Study Finds

Mary Pat Campbell

Link:https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20220202005695/en/Public-Pension-Systems-Pared-Costs-and-Assumptions-in-2021-NCPERS-Study-Finds

Excerpt:

Pension systems said earnings on investments accounted for 68% of overall pension revenues in their most recent fiscal year. Employer contributions made up 23% of revenues, and employee contributions totaled 8%.

The Covid-19 pandemic accelerated efforts by public pension systems to expand their communications capabilities. In all, 78% offered live web conferences to members during 2021, up from 54% a year earlier.

Pension funds that participated in the survey in 2020 and 2021 reported that their funded levels rose to 72.3%, from 71.7%. Overall, pension funds reported a funded level of 74.7% for 2021. While funded levels are not as important to pensions’ sustainability as steady contributions are, the trend is positive.

The inflation assumption for the funds’ most recent fiscal year remained steady at 2.7%. These assumptions were in place in the midst of an acceleration in the rate of inflation, which reached 7% at the end of 2021, from 1.4% a year earlier, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Author(s): NCPERS

Publication Date: 2 Feb 2022

Publication Site: Businesswire

Developing Countries Brace for Impact From Fed Rate Increases

Mary Pat Campbell

Link:https://www.wsj.com/articles/developing-countries-brace-for-impact-from-fed-rate-increases-11644321780

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Excerpt:

Central bankers in developing countries have been ratcheting up interest rates for months, seeking to stay ahead of a rise in U.S. rates that could destabilize their economies by pushing up their own cost of debt, weakening their currencies and driving capital out of their markets and into higher-yielding U.S. securities.

Now, the Fed is expected to raise rates anywhere from four to seven times this year. If successful in taming inflation, the Fed could help central banks everywhere, because a turbocharged U.S. economy, huge government stimulus and a splurge by Americans on everything from toys and household appliances have snarled supply chains and driven inflation higher world-wide.

Until now, overseas central banks have found it difficult to get on top of the inflation surge withthe Fed sitting on the sidelines. But with the Fed now poised to join the battle, some say the prospects of success are greater.

Author(s): Paul Hannon

Publication Date: 8 Feb 2022

Publication Site: WSJ

The Inflation Rate in the U.S.: Past, Present, and Future

Mary Pat Campbell

Link:https://advisor.visualcapitalist.com/the-inflation-rate-in-the-u-s-past-present-and-future/

Graphic:

Excerpt:

There are a number of periods in history where the inflation rate in the U.S. was heightened. For instance, a booming economy in the late ‘60s led to rising prices. President Nixon implemented wage-price shocks to halt inflation, but this eventually caused a recession.

In the years that followed, surging oil prices were a primary culprit behind periods of higher inflation. The early ‘70s were impacted by the oil embargo, when OPEC countries stopped oil exports to the United States. At the same time, U.S. oil producers didn’t have additional capacity and non-OPEC oil sources were declining as a proportion of the world oil market. This meant the U.S. was unable to increase supply to meet demand, and OPEC countries had more power to influence oil prices.

Fast forward to 2021, and the COVID-19 recovery has again led to a higher inflation rate in the United States. A number of factors are responsible, including surging consumer demand, supply chain problems, and a labor shortage.

Author(s): Jenna Ross

Publication Date: 6 Feb 2022

Publication Site: Visual Capitalist

We’re pricing the poor out of food in the UK – that’s why I’m launching my own price index

Mary Pat Campbell

Link:https://www.theguardian.com/society/2022/jan/22/were-pricing-the-poor-out-of-food-in-the-uk-thats-why-im-launching-my-own-price-index

Excerpt:

A collection of 700 pre-specified goods that includes a leg of lamb, bedroom furniture, a television and champagne seems a blunt and darkly comical tool for recording the impact of inflated grocery prices in a country where two and a half million citizens were forced by an array of desperate circumstances to use food banks in the last year.

The Smart Price, Basics and Value range products offered as lower-cost alternatives are stealthily being extinguished from the shelves, leaving shoppers with no choice but to “level up” to the supermarkets’ own branded goods – usually in smaller quantities at larger prices.

I have been monitoring this for the last decade, through writing recipes on my online blog and documenting the prices of ingredients in forensic detail. In 2012, 10 stock cubes from Sainsbury’s Basics range were 10p. In 2022, those same stock cubes are 39p, but only available in chicken or beef. The cheapest vegetable stock cubes are, inexplicably, £1 for 10. Last year the Smart Price pasta in my local Asda was 29p for 500g. Today, it is unavailable, so the cheapest bag is 70p; a 141% price rise for the same product in more colourful packaging. A few years ago, there were more than 400 products in the Smart Price range; today there are 87, and counting down.

….

I have been writing about these things for 10 years now. I have given evidence to multiple parliamentary inquiries, led numerous petitions, been consulted on the School Food Plan and the National Food Strategy, spoken twice at the Conservative party conference, and still the realities of the worst of our collective experiences are dismissed by haughty money men as not matching their theoretical lamb-and-champagne metrics.

So, along with a team of economists, charitable partners, retail price analysts, people working to combat poverty in the UK, ex-staff from the Office for National Statistics and others who have volunteered their time and expertise, I am compiling a new price index – one that will document the disappearance of the budget lines and the insidiously creeping prices of the most basic versions of essential items at the supermarket.

Author(s): Jack Monroe

Publication Date: 22 Jan 2022

Publication Site: The Guardian

U.S. Inflation Hits 39-Year High of 7%, Sets Stage for Fed Hike

Mary Pat Campbell

Link:https://www.thinkadvisor.com/2022/01/12/u-s-inflation-hits-39-year-high-of-7-sets-stage-for-fed-hike/

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Excerpt:

The consumer price index climbed 7% in 2021, the largest 12-month gain since June 1982, according to Labor Department data released Wednesday. The widely followed inflation gauge rose 0.5% from November, exceeding forecasts.

Excluding the volatile food and energy components, so-called core prices accelerated from a month earlier, rising by a larger-than-forecast 0.6%. The measure jumped 5.5% from a year earlier, the biggest advance since 1991.

The increase in the CPI was led by higher prices for shelter and used vehicles. Food costs also contributed. Energy prices, which were a key driver of inflation through most of 2021, fell last month.

Author(s): Reade Pickert

Publication Date: 12 Jan 2022

Publication Site: Think Advisor

Producer Prices Rise 9.7% for 2021, the Most in Series History

Mary Pat Campbell

Link:https://mishtalk.com/economics/producer-prices-rise-9-7-for-2021-the-most-in-series-history

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Excerpt:

The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.2 percent in December. This rise followed advances of 1.0 percent in November and 0.6 percent in October.

On an unadjusted basis, final demand prices moved up 9.7 percent in 2021, the largest calendar-year increase since data were first calculated in 2010.

In December, the advance in the final demand index can be traced to a 0.5-percent increase in prices for final demand services.

Conversely, the index for final demand goods decreased 0.4 percent.

Prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services rose 0.4 percent in December following a 0.8-percent increase in November.

In 2021, the index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services moved up 6.9 percent, following a 1.3-percent advance in 2020.

Author(s): Mike Shedlock

Publication Date: 13 Jan 2022

Publication Site: Mish Talk

Three subtle ways inflation helps state and local government coffers

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://lizfarmer.substack.com/p/inflation-impact-local-governments

Excerpt:

If inflation pushes up interest rates and accelerates wage growth, that could take some of the pressure off of public pension plan performance. Since the Great Recession, pension plans have been steadily lowering their assumed annual rate of return to better match the low-interest rate environment. Pension plan actuaries factor that rate when in calculating a government’s annual pension bill. Lowering that rate results in a higher bill because governments have to make up the difference. 

More stable returns. Rising inflation can result in higher returns from a pension plan’s fixed-income assets. Unlike the volatile equities market, the nice steady investment return from fixed-income securities is much nicer to rely on from a planning perspective. In fact, bonds used to be pensions’ bread and butter until interest rates began falling in the 1990s.

The National Association of State Retirement Administrators’ research director Keith Brainard told me this week that if inflation is sustained, governments could decide to stop lowering their investment return assumptions and some could even start raising them again. 

That could result in lower pension bills for governments with healthy plans. Or in the case of struggling plans like Chicago or Kentucky, it could at least slow the pace of their rising pension bills.

Higher worker contributions. What’s more, noted Brainard, accelerated wage growth also means those workers paying into pension plans will be contributing slightly more. “What wages will do when inflation is 2% is a lot different than when it’s 6%,” he said.

Author(s): Liz Farmer

Publication Date: 15 Dec 2021

Publication Site: Long Story Short at substack

Year-End 2021 Capital Markets Wrap-Up

Mary Pat Campbell

Link:https://content.naic.org/sites/default/files/capital-markets-special-report-YE%202021%20wrap%20up.pdf

Graphic:

Excerpt:

The U.S. economy has made a solid recovery as COVID-19 vaccinations were made increasingly
available, social distancing began to ease, and businesses gradually reopened.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF), among other forecasters, expects the U.S. economy to
grow by about 6% in 2021, after contracting about 3.4% in 2020.
• Inflation reached a 39-year high of 6.8% in November following a strong rebound from the COVID19-induced recession.
• The ‘stronger for longer’ inflation rates prompted the Federal Reserve to accelerate the tapering
of its asset purchases and to suggest the likelihood of three rate hikes in 2022.
• The 10-year U.S. government bond yield has generally ranged between 1.3% and 1.7% in 2021,
increasing from less than 1% in 2020, due in part to fiscal stimulus aiding in economic recovery.
• Credit spreads have been muted in 2021 given robust global economic growth, favorable funding
conditions, and overall solid corporate performance despite higher costs and supply disruptions.
• Global stocks have achieved relatively high returns; in the U.S., the Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500
posted seven record closing highs in November alone.
• The price of oil reached a seven-year high of $85 per barrel in 2021 as demand for oil normalized
while the global supply market tightened.

Author(s): : Jennifer Johnson and Michele Wong

Publication Date: 22 Dec 2021

Publication Site: NAIC Capital Markets Bureau Special Reports