What do rising interest rates mean for government debt?

Link: https://lizfarmer.substack.com/p/rising-interest-rates-mean-for-governments?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=560793&post_id=135712385&isFreemail=false

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The higher the interest rates, the more costly the financing of a new project is over the long run, thus increasing pressure on the municipal budget.

The example below compares the cost of a 20-year, $10 million debt issuance at different rates. “Coupons” refer to the interest rate that bondholders get back on their investment. “PV” stands for “present value,” or the face value of the bonds when they’re issued.

Author(s): Martin Feinstein

Publication Date: 18 Aug 2023

Publication Site: Long Story Short, Liz Farmer’s Substack

PREPA bond parties make offer and file suits

Link: https://fixedincome.fidelity.com/ftgw/fi/FINewsArticle?id=202311131617SM______BNDBUYER_0000018b-ca27-d799-afbf-dbf739470092_110.1

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Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority bond parties that oppose the Oversight Board’s proposed debt deal filed suits challenging part of the deal, asked for compensation for Puerto Rico central government’s actions since March 2022 and proposed an alternate bond deal.

The parties filed the suits this weekend in the U.S. District Court for Puerto Rico and filed an informative motion Friday in the bankruptcy telling U.S. District Judge Laura Taylor Swain about their bond deal offer.

GoldenTree Asset Management and Syncora Guarantee sued Puerto Rico’s central government for actions taken since March 2022 to interfere with PREPA’s ability to pay bondholders. The court has yet to appoint a judge in that case.

The bond parties allege the commonwealth government has manipulated PREPA’s fiscal plans and budgets to deprive the bondholders of their claim on the authority’s revenues and depress the value of the bonds.

The board rejected former Oversight Board member Justin Peterson’s suggestion to use commonwealth financial surpluses for PREPA because the commonwealth didn’t owe the authority money.

Author(s): Robert Slavin

Publication Date: 13 Nov 2023

Publication Site: Fidelity Fixed Income/Bond Buyer

Can States and Cities Dig Themselves Out?

Link: https://www.city-journal.org/multimedia/can-states-and-cities-dig-themselves-out

Excerpt:

David Schleicher: Yeah, absolutely. There’s an old joke that says, “The federal government is an insurance company with an army.” But anything you actually touch, can physically touch, any infrastructure of any sort, or services you consume and need to care about in one way or another are almost all directly provided by the state and local governments. They’re often funded sometimes with money from the federal government, but they are directly private and partially funded by state and local governments. The fiscal health of state and local governments is extremely important to, say, the question of state capacity in America.

Allison Schrager: It seems like we don’t talk about it until you’re Illinois or if you’re a municipality, Detroit, but it seems like we’ve been talking about this big shoe to drop on state municipal bankruptcies for a while and it doesn’t come, but that doesn’t mean we should be complacent.

David Schleicher: Yeah, absolutely. Two things. One is that it definitely would’ve come in the last couple of years had the federal government not dropped a ton of money on state and local governments. The pandemic created huge fiscal problems for a number of jurisdictions. The federal government responded by providing a huge amount of aid. The effect of that is that has had benefits and costs, which I’m sure we’ll talk about, but you can’t just look through the defaults or absence of defaults, to ask the question of “Are states and cities in fiscal trouble?” State and fiscal budgets are very procyclical. We end up cutting really important things during recessions and spending too much during non-recessions. Then we have the question of federal bailouts.

Allison Schrager: Yeah, it’s a very complicated issue, so what to do about this. But you have a very sort of organized, clean way to think about it. You describe it as this trilemma.

David Schleicher: Yeah. When a state or city faces a fiscal problem, fiscal crisis, take New York City in the 1970s or Detroit, or Puerto Rico or whatever it is. We’ve had, over the course of American history from Hamilton’s assumption of state debts, we’ve had a series of state and local fiscal crises. We have a lot of governments and some of them are going to have crises. The question is, what should the federal government do? Well, the federal government has three things it would like to achieve, which are, it doesn’t want to have too severe cuts during recessions, because that creates even bigger recessions. It doesn’t want to encourage state and local governments to think that the federal government will always stand behind them, a problem we call moral hazard. It wants federal state and local governments to be able to continue to borrow because state and local governments need to borrow to build infrastructure.

Author(s): David N. Schleicher, Allison Schrager

Publication Date: 2 Jun 2023

Publication Site: City Journal

Wall Street Boosts States’ Credit Scores as Recession Worries Cloud Outlook

Link: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-04-19/wall-street-boosts-states-credit-scores-as-recession-woes-cloud-outlook

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Illinois, Massachusetts and New Jersey this year have garnered higher credit scores from rating companies, including brighter outlooks for the states as well. The upgrades also helped shrink bond yield spreads in the primary and secondary municipal markets, signaling investor perception of state debt is improving.

The better state ratings are due in part to the positive effect of federal pandemic aid, which some states used for one-time expenses while others set cash aside for the future. State treasuries also saw an influx of tax revenue from residents — bolstered by US stimulus money sent to individuals — who spent on services at home at the height of the pandemic, and on travel after Covid lockdowns were eased. 

Still, a slowdown in the US economy this year is causing concern that states can no longer expect a cash haul. The likelihood that the economy in the next 12 months will slide into a recession is greater now than a month earlier, according to a March 20-27 Bloomberg survey of 48 economists.

The poll, conducted after several bank closures roiled financial markets, put the odds of a contraction at 65%, up from 60% in February, amid interest-rate hikes by the Federal Reserve and growing risks of tighter credit conditions. 

Author(s): Skylar Woodhouse

Publication Date: 19 Apr 2023

Publication Site: Bloomberg

Upgrade will help Chicago navigate a thornier bond market

Link: https://fixedincome.fidelity.com/ftgw/fi/FINewsArticle?id=202210251432SM______BNDBUYER_00000184-0fdf-d34d-a3d7-5fff818a0000_110.1&utm_source=Wirepoints+Newsletter&utm_campaign=845146e7cd-RSS_EMAIL_CAMPAIGN&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_895ee9abf9-845146e7cd-30506353#new_tab

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Last week’s Fitch Ratings upgrade of Chicago offers dual benefits for Mayor Lori Lightfoot’s administration as it pursues passage of a proposed 2023 budget and preps a general obligation issue.

Fitch’s Friday upgrade to BBB from BBB-minus, the city’s first from Fitch in 12 years, and the potential for more good rating news could help sell the City Council on supplemental pension contributions and other pieces of the budget plan viewed favorably by analysts.

The Fitch action and an overall rosier view of the city’s fiscal condition should also broaden the investor appeal of an upcoming $757 million general obligation issue in a more fickle and tumultuous market than prevailed in the city’s last GO offering in late 2021.

Author(s): Yvette Shields

Publication Date: 25 Oct 2022

Publication Site: Fidelity Fixed Income

Biden Administration Sues a City Over “Rampant Overspending on Teacher Salaries”

Link: https://www.educationnext.org/biden-administration-sues-a-city-over-rampant-overspending-on-teacher-salaries/

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The Biden administration’s Securities and Exchange Commission is suing the city of Rochester, New York, contending that “rampant overspending on teacher salaries” plunged the Rochester school district into “extreme financial distress,” misleading investors who bought municipal bonds.

The legal action is unusual. Sure, the federal government’s interaction with K-12 education has often extended beyond the bounds of the U.S. Department of Education. The Department of Agriculture administers the school lunch program, and the Department of Defense operates schools serving military-connected children. Under George W. Bush, the Justice Department toyed with the idea of using antitrust law to support charter schools. And in the waning days of the Trump administration, President Trump issued an executive order authorizing “emergency learning scholarships” to be provided via the Secretary of Health and Human Services.

But, notwithstanding Bloomberg columnist Matt Levine’s theory that
everything is securities fraud,” in practice, the K-12 education beat hasn’t intersected greatly with the fraud provisions of federal securities laws. At least until now.

….

How much has Rochester been “overspending?” The website Seethroughny.com, a project of the Empire Center for Public Policy, lists 717 Rochester City School District Employees who earned more than $100,000 in 2019. The district has about 25,000 K-12 public school students, according to the state of New York. Spending runs about $20,000, a little below the statewide average. Whether that amounts to “overspending” probably depends on one’s view of how much the children are learning, and also one’s view of whether the students could learn more, and how much more, if more money were spent.

….

In practice, the legal aspects of the case will probably turn more on considerations about disclosure to potential bond buyers than about the details of the spending on teacher salaries.

Even so, the mere mention of securities law and bondholders as potential tools to curb school district “overspending” is intriguing, especially when the action comes under a president who campaigned promising to increase school spending so as to pay teachers “competitive salaries.” For years, reformers have complained that teachers unions capture school boards and run school systems for the benefit of adults rather than children. Now a different set of influential adults—bondholders—is, in a way, asserting, via the SEC, its own claim that could be a countervailing force.

Author(s): Ira Stoll

Publication Date: 15 June 2022

Publication Site: Education Next

With higher rates, total 2022 issuance projections keep falling

Link: https://fixedincome.fidelity.com/ftgw/fi/FINewsArticle?id=202206101515SM______BNDBUYER_00000181-4ebf-d2a2-a9ab-dffffeab0000_110.1

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Market participants are revising their supply projections downward as rising interest rates have stymied refunding and taxable volumes and overall market volatility has held some issuers to the sidelines.

The pace of issuance so far in 2022 makes it less likely the market will hit previous records seen in 2020 and 2021.

BofA Securities was the latest shop to revise expectations downward because of the dearth of refundings, with strategists Yingchen Li and Ian Rogow forecasting total volume in 2022 to be $50 billion less than the $550 billion assumption they made at the end of 2021.

Author(s): Gabriel Rivera

Publication Date: 10 June 2022

Publication Site: Fidelity Fixed Income

Munis sit on sidelines while USTs rally post-Fed rate hike

Link: https://fixedincome.fidelity.com/ftgw/fi/FINewsArticle?id=202206151637SM______BNDBUYER_00000181-67cc-d98e-a5fb-efcf1bfc0001_110.1

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Municipals took a backseat as the Federal Open Market Committee announced its decision to implement a three-quarter point rate hike while U.S. Treasuries rallied into late afternoon following the news. Equities rallied.

The move, prompted partly by hotter-than-expected inflation data Friday, is the largest rate hike since 1994.

?Investors appear encouraged that the FOMC is willing to take forceful action to try and get inflation under control,” Wilmington Trust Chief Economist Luke Tilley said.

By front loading rate hikes, he said, the FOMC will have ?more optionality as the year unfolds,? and will be able to accelerate hikes if inflation persists, ?but if any cracks appear in the economic recovery they?ll have the option to slow down while still having rates below their estimate of neutral.?

Triple-A muni yields were cut a basis point or were little changed while UST yields fell up to 23 basis points on the short end.

Author(s): Christine Albano

Publication Date: 15 June 2022

Publication Site: Fidelity Fixed Income

Jacksonville’s public pension reform helps the city get an improved credit rating

Link: https://reason.org/commentary/jacksonvilles-public-pension-reform-helps-the-city-get-an-improved-credit-rating/

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The city of Jacksonville is about to enjoy the benefits of a credit rating boost. Moody’s Investors Service moved the Florida city’s credit rating to Aa2 from Aa3, citing pension reform among the main reasons for the upgrade. The credit rating increase will allow the state to borrow funds at a lower interest rate and invest in more infrastructure and public services. 

Five years ago, the Jacksonville City Council approved a pension reform package while enacting innovative changes, reducing debt by more than $585 million and adding over $155 million to pension reserves. A key element of the pension reform that led to reduced debt was closing the city’s three pension plans to new public employees in 2017. Since that change was put in place, over $715 million has been used to grow Jacksonville’s economy and invest in public services for its population. In addition, credit rating agencies, such as Moody’s, assign “grades” to governments’ ability and willingness to service their bond obligations, taking into consideration the jurisdiction’s economic situation and fiscal management. Since the pension reform reduced budgetary pressure, it improved the chances of the city getting a credit upgrade. 

Author(s): Jen Sidorova

Publication Date: 1 Jun 2022

Publication Site: Reason

Comptroller asks for upgrade to Illinois’ worst-in-nation credit

Link:https://www.thecentersquare.com/illinois/comptroller-asks-for-upgrade-to-illinois-worst-in-nation-credit/article_464a70c6-8862-11ec-b879-afe32c50f8c6.html utm_term=0_3386e99c24-8d6a8659cc-71461060

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Illinois Comptroller Susana Mendoza is asking the credit ratings agencies to upgrade Illinois’ worst-in-the-nation status.

S&P Global has Illinois at BBB. Moody’s has the state at Baa2. That’s after upgrades from the agencies last year. Fitch has Illinois at BBB-.

“My office is doing everything possible to manage the current backlog of bills and address Illinois’ finances head-on,” Mendoza said in a letter to the agencies that her office announced Monday. “The Illinois Office of Comptroller urges you to consider these positive factors and progress made in strengthening Illinois’ financial position when evaluating Illinois’ creditworthiness.”

Mendoza said in the letter she has paid back recent borrowing from a federal program. Illinois was the only state to borrow from the Federal Reserve’s Municipal Liquidity Fund for a total of $2.6 billion.

Author(s): Greg Bishop

Publication Date: 8 Feb 2022

Publication Site: The Center Square

Investors Sour on Muni Funds

Link:https://www.wsj.com/articles/investors-sour-on-muni-funds-11643568253

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Investors pulled $1.4 billion from municipal-bond funds in the week ended last Wednesday, the biggest weekly outflow since the early days of the pandemic, according to Refinitiv Lipper.

Municipal-bond yields, which rise as prices fall, climbed last week after the Federal Reserve signaled it would begin steadily raising interest rates in mid-March, reducing the appeal of outstanding debt. Yields on the highest-rated state and local bonds jumped to 1.55% Monday from 1.34% last Tuesday, according to Refinitiv MMD.

Returns on the S&P Municipal Bond Index have fallen to minus 2.33% this year through Jan. 28, counting price changes and interest payments, the lowest year-to-date returns in at least 16 years.

Author(s): Heather Gillers

Publication Date: 31 Jan 2022

Publication Site: WSJ

Puerto Rico Released From Bankruptcy as Economic Problems Persist

Link:https://www.wsj.com/articles/puerto-rico-released-from-bankruptcy-as-economic-problems-persist-11642537090

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Puerto Rico received court approval to leave bankruptcy through the largest restructuring of U.S. municipal debt ever, ending years of conflict with creditors as the U.S. territory confronts other stubborn economic problems.

Tuesday’s court ruling approved a write-down of $30.5 billion in public debts built up during an economic decline marked by high joblessness, outward migration and unsustainable borrowing that tipped Puerto Rico into bankruptcy in 2017. The restructuring plan calms tension between Puerto Rico and its Wall Street creditors dating to its debt default, the largest ever on bonds backed by the full faith and credit of a U.S. municipality.

….

The territory entered bankruptcy with $74 billion in bond debt and a $55 billion gap between the pension benefits promised to employees and retirees and the funding set aside to pay for them. Public agencies were beset by cronyism and failed for years to draw up accurate budgets or account for expenses, according to a 2018 investigation commissioned by the board.

Sprawling bureaucracy and a high cost of doing business discouraged investment, especially after the expiration of some corporate tax breaks in 2006 pushed some pharmaceutical and other manufacturers to depart. To make up for a shrinking tax base, officials borrowed to paper over deficits and skimped on pension contributions.

Many residents of Puerto Rico, political leaders, and some investors have called for an independent audit of how the huge debt was built up, according to Judge Swain’s decision.

Author(s): Andrew Scurria and Soma Biswas

Publication Date: 18 Jan 2022

Publication Site: WSJ