Emerging Technologies and their Impact on Actuarial Science

Link: https://www.soa.org/globalassets/assets/files/resources/research-report/2021/2021-emerging-technologies-report.pdf

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Excerpt:

This research evaluates the current state and future outlook of emerging technologies on the actuarial profession
over a three-year horizon. For the purpose of this report, a technology is considered to be a practical application of
knowledge (as opposed to a specific vendor) and is considered emerging when the use of the particular technology
is not already widespread across the actuarial profession. This report looks to evaluate prospective tools that
actuaries can use across all aspects and domains of work spanning Life and Annuities, Health, P&C, and Pensions in
relation to insurance risk.
We researched and grouped similar technologies together for ease of reading and understanding. As a result, we
identified the six following technology groups:

  1. Machine Learning and Artificial Intelligence
  2. Business Intelligence Tools and Report Generators
  3. Extract-Transform-Load (ETL) / Data Integration and Low-Code Automation Platforms
  4. Collaboration and Connected Data
  5. Data Governance and Sharing
  6. Digital Process Discovery (Process Mining / Task Mining)

Author(s):

Nicole Cervi, Deloitte
Arthur da Silva, FSA, ACIA, Deloitte
Paul Downes, FIA, FCIA, Deloitte
Marwah Khalid, Deloitte
Chenyi Liu, Deloitte
Prakash Rajgopal, Deloitte
Jean-Yves Rioux, FSA, CERA, FCIA, Deloitte
Thomas Smith, Deloitte
Yvonne Zhang, FSA, FCIA, Deloitte

Publication Date: October 2021

Publication Site: Society of Actuaries, SOA Research Institute

Practical Application of “Do Jumps Matter in the Long Term? A Tale of Two Horizons”

Link:https://www.soa.org/globalassets/assets/files/resources/naaj-practical-application-essays/2021/naaj-essay-cantor.pdf

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In this essay, we consider an additional application. Using the utility framework described by Warren (2019), we
examine the impact of using one of BB’s fitted jump-diffusion models on a pension plan sponsor’s long-term asset
allocation decision. We want to compare asset allocation results to those using the standard finance workhorse
model of a geometric Brownian motion (i.e., lognormal return generating process or LN hereafter).

Author(s):

Jean-François Bégin, PhD, FSA, FCIA
Mathieu Boudreault, PhD, FSA, FCIA
David R. Cantor, CFA, FRM, ASA
Kailan Shang, FSA, ACIA, CFA, PRM

Publication Date: September 2021

Publication Site: Society of Actuaries

“Ending Jim Crow Life Insurance Rates”: A Professionalism Case Study Webcast

Link: https://www.soa.org/prof-dev/webcasts/2021-ending-jim-crow/

Description:

This session will introduce a late 19th century article by actuary FL Hoffman. This article provided a justification for racially discriminatory life insurance premiums – a practice that existed well into the 20th century and was consistent with “Jim Crow” thinking. Join the presenters as they discuss the reasons that Hoffman’s article was actuarially unsound using commentaries at the time it was written as well as recent publications that include important reflections on the actuarial profession that apply both historically and in the present. The session will discuss thoughts about how Hoffman’s work would be received and handled today, including the role of the ABCD in such matters, several rules and regulations that now guide actuarial conduct and are designed to prevent discriminatory practices, and actuarial ethical responsibilities. The session will conclude with an observation that one of the best ways for the actuarial profession to prevent the use of racially discriminatory practices in our work is by having a diverse actuarial profession with members who will provide first-hand perspectives about inappropriate actuarial practices.

Author(s):

Jay M. Jaffe, FSA, MAAA

Reinsurance Administration, Ltd.

Webcast Date (to come): 10 November 2021

Publication Site: SOA

SOA Member Town Hall on University-Earned Credit

Video description:

SOA leadership and members discuss the University-Earned Credit (UEC) program. Watch this recording of the May 24 member town hall about UEC. If you have any additional questions email us at membercomms@soa.org. Learn about the UEC program by visiting https://www.soa.org/education/resources/uec/uec-program/

Access the FAQs at www.soa.org/education/resources/uec/uec-faq/

Publication Date: 27 May 2021

Publication Site: Society of Actuaries on YouTube

COVID-19 Impact on Long-Term Care Insurance 2020 Survey

Link: https://www.soa.org/resources/experience-studies/2021/covid-impact-ltc-2020-survey/

Full study: https://www.soa.org/globalassets/assets/files/resources/experience-studies/2021/covid-impact-ltc-2020-survey.pdf

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Overall, the survey results show that COVID-19 has had an impact on emerging LTC insurance experience through
higher mortality (for both active and disabled lives) and lower claim incidence. Results on voluntary lapse rates were
mixed; however, premium grace period extensions due to COVID-19 may have contributed to differences in
reporting. The survey results also indicated that, in many cases, the impact of COVID-19 has not yet been studied or
there is not yet data available. This was especially true in relation to studying COVID-19’s impact across various
characteristics (gender, attained age, marital status, situs).


For questions studying the impact of COVID-19 on specific assumptions, the effect was measured on a multiplicative
basis compared to the expectation without COVID-19, except for voluntary lapse, which was measured on an
additive basis. See examples in the full survey questions in Appendix A for additional detail.

Authors: Mike Bergerson, FSA, MAAA, Principal and Consulting Actuary
Andrew Dalton, FSA, MAAA, Principal and Consulting Actuary
Robert Eaton, FSA, MAAA, Principal and Consulting Actuary
James Stoltzfus, FSA, MAAA, Principal and Consulting Actuary

Milliman

Publication Date: March 2021

Publication Site: Society of Actuaries

Ethics and use of Data Sources for Underwriting ft. Neil Raden and Kevin Pledge -NSNA(Ep.4)

Video:

Description:

The video features Neil Raden who is the author of ethical use of AI for Actuaries. Alongside him , it features Kevin Pledge who is CEO of Acceptiv , FSA,FIA and chair of Innovation and Research Committee of SOA. We discuss about the issue of ethics and about the use of new data sources in the recent Emerging issues in Underwriting Survey Report by IfOA.

Authors: Harsh Jaitak, Kevin Pledge, Neil Raden

Publication Date: 17 March 2021

Publication Site: TBD Actuarial at YouTube

First COVID-19 Wave Hit Preferred Insureds Hard: Work Group

Link: https://www.thinkadvisor.com/2021/03/12/first-covid-19-wave-hit-preferred-insureds-hard-work-group/

Excerpt:

The team found that deaths attributed to COVID-19 accounted for 5.1% of the individual life insurance death claims participating insurers received in the first half of 2020.

About 2% of all of claims for all causes were for people younger than 45. That was about the same percentage as in 2019.

About 1% of the COVID-19-related claims submitted in the first half of 2020 were for people under 45.

The overall increase in the odds of dying from any cause was highest for insureds in their 70s.

Author(s): Allison Bell

Publication Date: 12 March 2021

Publication Site: Think Advisor

U.S. Individual Life COVID-19 Mortality Claims Analysis

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The first quarter of 2020 all-cause individual life death counts were in the range of 93% to 99% for
the first quarter in the previous five years, similar to the CDC’s estimated actual to expected all-cause deaths for the population.

The second quarter of 2020 all-cause individual life death counts were in the range of 110% to
113% for the second quarter in the previous five years. This was lower than the CDC’s second-quarter estimate of 118% to 123% for the population.

The average attained age at death of the individual life COVID claims is 0.6 years older than the
average age of non-COVID claims. The U.S. population had a much larger difference of 3.0 years
between the average attained age of COVID and non-COVID deaths.

Author(s): Individual Life COVID-19 Project Work Group

Publication Date: March 2021

Publication Site: Society of Actuaries

14th Annual Survey of Emerging Risks Key Findings

Link: https://www.soa.org/resources/research-reports/2021/14th-annual-survey/

Description:

The Casualty Actuarial Society, Canadian Institute of Actuaries, and the Society of Actuaries are pleased to make available results from the 2020 Emerging Risks Survey, the fourteenth in the series. Conducted by Max J. Rudolph of Rudolph Financial Consulting LLC, the survey incorporated a set of Emerging Risks defined by the World Economic Forum as the basis for several of the questions.  The survey also included questions related to current risk management topics.

Now available is a report presenting the major findings from the study. The full report will be released later in the year.

Author: Max J. Rudolph, FSA, CFA, CERA, MAAA

Rudolph Financial Consulting, LLC

Publication Date: January 2021

Publication Site: Society of Actuaries

Visualizations of COVID-19 Case and Death Counts

Link: https://www.soa.org/resources/research-reports/2020/visualizations-of-covid-19/

Sublinks: [Tableau dashboards]

https://tableau.soa.org/t/soa-public/views/COVID_Countries/1MapColors?:origin=card_share_link&:embed=y&:isGuestRedirectFromVizportal=y

https://tableau.soa.org/t/soa-public/views/COVID_US_States/1Map?:origin=card_share_link&:embed=y&:isGuestRedirectFromVizportal=y

https://tableau.soa.org/t/soa-public/views/COVID_US_Counties/1MapRates?:origin=card_share_link&:embed=y&:isGuestRedirectFromVizportal=y

Publication Site: SOA

Society of Actuaries Group Life COVID-19 Mortality Survey

Report: https://www.soa.org/resources/experience-studies/2020/group-life-covid-mort-survey/

Description: The SOA conducted a survey, gathering a high-level view of U.S. Group Term Life Insurance mortality results during the COVID-19 pandemic, as compared to prior period baseline mortality results. The datasets for the SOA report encompass all Group Term Life claims reported to participating carriers as of August 31, 2020.

AUTHORS: Thomas J. Britt, FSA, MAAA
Paul Correia, FSA, MAAA
Mike Krohn, FSA, CERA, MAAA
Rick Leavitt, ASA, MAAA
Cynthia S. MacDonald, FSA, MAAA, SOA
Patrick Nolan, FSA, MAAA, SOA
Stacy Paris, FSA, MAAA
Steve Rulis, FSA, MAAA

SPONSOR: SOA Group Life Experience Committee

Publication Date: December 2020

Publication site: soa.org