Author: Mary Pat Campbell

Credit Default Swaps Imply a Two Percent Chance the US Defaults

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://mishtalk.com/economics/credit-default-swaps-imply-a-two-percent-chance-the-us-defaults

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The implied odds are two percent but contract trading is very thin. And some of the protection is mandatory.  If regulators raise risk flags, some banks feel compelled to buy insurance. 

So most likely the true odds of default are much lower.

There is also a three day grace period. We could have a default, but if it is rectified within three days, those betting on a default will be technically correct yet receive no payout.

I believe the odds of a payout on these contracts is essentially zero. But yeah, if there is a default for a couple of days, there will be “chaos” as several people on Twitter have commented. 

Author(s): Mike Shedlock

Publication Date: 21 Apr 2023

Publication Site: Mish Talk

GUN VIOLENCE ARCHIVE

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.gunviolencearchive.org/

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PUBLISHED DATE: April 20, 2023

Gun violence  and crime incidents are collected/validated from 7,500 sources daily – Incident Reports and their source data are found at the gunviolencearchive.org website.

Footnotes

  1. Number of source verified deaths and injuries
  2. Number of INCIDENTS reported and verified
  3. Calculation based on CDC Suicide Data
  4. Actual total of all non-suicide deaths plus daily calculated suicide deaths

All numbers are subject to change or incidents recategorized as new evidence is established and verified.

METHODOLOGY & DEFINITIONS AVAILABLE AT:
https://www.gunviolencearchive.org/methodology

www.gunviolencearchive.org
www.facebook.com/gunviolencearchive
On Twitter @gundeaths

Publication Date: accessed 20 April 2023

Publication Site: Gun Violence Archive

APPENDIX 1: MAJOR HURRICANES IN TEXAS AND THE U.S. —A HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://comptroller.texas.gov/economy/fiscal-notes/2018/special-edition/history.php

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In a typical year, about 100 storms and tropical disturbances develop in the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico. Some of these turn into tropical storms, and on average, two each year become hurricanes that make landfall in the U.S.40 Between 1851 and 2016, 289 hurricanes affected the continental U.S. Of these, 63 made landfall in Texas.41

….

Of course, hurricanes and other major storms affect the entire country, not just the Gulf Coast. Exhibit 6 lists the most destructive storms affecting the U.S. in the last half-century.

Hurricane Katrina, which caused $161.3 billion in damages, still ranks as the costliest storm in American history; Hurricane Harvey is expected to rank second, with total estimated damages of about $125 billion.45

Publication Date: February 2018, accessed April 2023

Publication Site: Fiscal Notes, Comptroller of Texas

What’s behind the US baby bust? Americans are prioritizing careers and leisure activities over having a family

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-11628235/Whats-baby-bust.html

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Fertility in the US has long been falling. A half-century ago in 1970, the average woman was having 2.39 children over her entire life-span. 

In 1920 – a full century ago – the rate was at 3.17. Earliest available data from 1800 puts the rate at 7.04. 

The Census Bureau predicts there will be 94.7million Americans over the age of 65 by 2060, accounting for 23 percent of the nation’s population. In 2020, the most recent Census, 56million Americans were over 65 – accounting for just 17 percent of the population.

A half-century ago in 1970, seniors made up around 10 percent of the US population.

This puts an excess burden on social programs like Medicare and Social Security, as this portion of the population pulls away its resources but does not pay into them.

Author(s): MANSUR SHAHEEN DEPUTY HEALTH EDITOR FOR DAILYMAIL.COM

Publication Date: 16 January 2023

Publication Site: Daily Mail UK

Pension reform in France: Which countries have the lowest and highest retirement ages in Europe?

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.euronews.com/next/2023/04/06/pension-reform-in-france-which-countries-have-the-lowest-and-highest-retirement-ages-in-eu

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The gap between women and men in expected years of retirement varies from 2.0 years in Ireland to 7.5 years in Cyprus. 

By 2020, European women typically can expect to live 4.3 years more than men after they exit the labour market. 

While the EU average is 4.6 years, in France, the gender gap stands in favour of women by a total of 3.6 years.

Interestingly, life expectancy in retirement for both highly varies across Europe. For men, it ranges from 14 years in Latvia to 24 years in Luxembourg.

For women, it varies from 18.9 years in Latvia to 28.4 years in Greece. Women are expected to have 26 years or more to spend while retired in Belgium, France, Greece, Italy, Luxembourg and Spain.

Author(s): Servet Yanatma

Publication Date: 6 Apr 2023

Publication Site: euronews

China Is Facing a Moment of Truth About Its Low Retirement Age

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-is-facing-a-moment-of-truth-about-its-low-retirement-age-5ed9b57f

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China has one of the lowest retirement ages among major economies. Under a policy unchanged since the 1950s, it allows women to retire as early as at age 50 and men at 60. Now, local governments are running out of money just as a wave of retirees hits. That is leaving Beijing with little choice but to ask people to work longer—a move economists say is long overdue but one still likely to meet with resistance.

China’s version of “baby boomers”—those born after China emerged from devastating starvation in the early 1960s—are retiring in droves. Even with government subsidies, by 2035 China’s state-led urban pension fund will run out of money accumulated over the previous two decades, leaving it to rely entirely on new workers’ contributions, according to projections made in 2019 by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, a government think tank. 

Former central bank Gov. Zhou Xiaochuan warned in a February speech that China must address its pension shortfall and communicate that many Chinese may need to rely on private pension savings

Author(s): Livan Qi

Publication Date: 11 April 2023

Publication Site: Wall Street Journal

Riots erupt across France as Constitutional Council validates Macron’s pension cuts

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2023/04/15/mwio-a15.html

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https://twitter.com/ClementAgostini/status/1646927984928907278?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1646927984928907278%7Ctwgr%5E75aaeb79c11e244c2303bd011418b6ddb22ac1c8%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.wsws.org%2Fen%2Farticles%2F2023%2F04%2F15%2Fmwio-a15.html

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At 6 p.m. yesterday, France’s Constitutional Council ruled that President Emmanuel Macron’s pension cuts are constitutional, removing the last legal obstacle to their adoption as law. The Elysée presidential palace announced 15 minutes later that Macron will promulgate the pension cuts as law within 48 hours.

The Council’s predictable approval of a law opposed by 80 percent of the French people, which Macron rammed through without even a vote in parliament, again tears the “democratic” mask off the capitalist state. It imposes the diktat of the banks, which plan amid the NATO-Russia war in Ukraine to massively divert social spending into strengthening the military-police machine. The struggle against the pension cuts can only be waged as a political struggle directed against the entire capitalist state machine.

The Council’s decision also exposes the forces in the union bureaucracy and the pseudo-left parties who, warning of “violence” by protesters, told workers to place their hopes in trade union “mediation” with Macron. Everyone involved, including masses of workers and youth, knew very well that Macron would ignore the “mediation.” On the other hand, two-thirds of the French people supported a general strike to block the economy and bring down Macron.

Author(s): Alex Lantier

Publication Date: 14 April 2023

Publication Site: World Socialist Web Site

Social Security is Running Out of Time and Money, What Do Biden and Trump Propose?

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://mishtalk.com/economics/social-security-is-running-out-of-time-and-money-what-do-biden-and-trump-propose

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Please consider the Biden-Trump Plan to Cut Social Security

  • Joe Biden: “I guarantee you I will protect Social Security and Medicare without any change. Guaranteed,” the president said in March. 
  • Donald Trump: “I will do everything within my power not to touch Social Security, to leave it the way it is.” A pro-Trump super PAC launched an ad attacking Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis for his efforts as a member of Congress to restructure benefits.

While Trump promised to not touch SS, Biden said he would protect SS “without any change“.

Biden’s “guarantee” is impossible, by existing law. 

The pledge to not change a thing means automatic benefit cuts starting in 2033 according to the bipartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO). 

Author(s): Mike Shedlock

Publication Date: 15 April 2023

Publication Site: Mish Talk