Author: Mary Pat Campbell

NJ Actuarial Reports – The Believable Numbers 6/30/22

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://burypensions.wordpress.com/2023/04/03/nj-actuarial-reports-the-believable-numbers-6-30-22/

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Excerpt:

The June 30, 2022 actuarial reports for the New Jersey Retirement System are now all out and there are a few numbers therein that can be taken seriously (none involving liabilities or even the market value of assets considering all those self-valued alternative investments). The main purpose of these official actuarial reports is to determine the ‘required’ contributions which practically all parties have a vested interest in understating so we get a bunch of fanciful numbers where possible. However, these numbers you can’t pretty up:

Author(s): John Bury

Publication Date: 3 April 2023

Publication Site: burypensions

Obesity in Asia

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.genre.com/knowledge/publications/2023/april/ri23-1-en

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Excerpt:

Figure 2 shows the incidence of cardiovascular disease and stroke in the male population.

This was derived from Gen Re’s Dread Disease experience study covering the period 2012–2015 and 2015–2019 for Hong Kong, Singapore and Malaysia. As per the analysis from the leading insurance companies of the respective market, 43% of men in Singapore, 40% of men in Malaysia and 26% of men in Hong Kong had critical illness claims due to cardiovascular disease and stroke between 2015 and 2019. When compared with the 2012–2015 analysis, it was noted that there is an increase in claims by 3% in Singapore, 10% in Malaysia and 1% points in Hong Kong, which may be associated with overweight and obesity or simply an older portfolio.

Due to increases in body weight and medical complications, insurance companies may be confronted with increasing claims which will impact their profitability. To mitigate this cost, insurance companies may have to increase the premium so as to commensurate with this rising claim cost. This increase in price will impact on the healthy population.

Health insurance premium has doubled in the past 10 years, but it is unclear how much of this premium is sufficient to cover the financial burden of the obesity pandemic. The evaluation of existing and developing new health coverages related to obesity-related conditions is an important consideration for the profitability of the health insurance providers.14

Author(s): Bharath UP

Publication Date: 12 April 2023

Publication Site: Gen Re

ILLINOIS CASINO REVENUE DOWN $200M SINCE 2012, AS CHICAGO BETS ON CASINO

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.illinoispolicy.org/illinois-casino-revenue-down-200m-since-2012-as-chicago-bets-on-casino/

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Chicago is in line for casino gaming soon, but its success is dwindling as video gaming machines and sports betting rise.

The casino industry for decades has been a significant contributor to the Illinois economy, but from 2012 to 2022 its seen a $200 million decline, according to data from the Illinois Gaming Board.

One of the reasons for the decline is the emergence of other forms of gaming which weren’t available to Illinoisans in 2012. Video gaming terminals, for example, have nearly doubled from $395 million in revenue during 2019 to $762 million in 2022.

They allow players to place bets on video poker and slot machines in local bars and restaurants, providing a more accessible and convenient experience than casinos.

Author(s): Dylan Sharkey

Publication Date: 11 April 2023

Publication Site: Illinois Policy Institute

Big City Pensions and the Urban Doom Loop

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://manhattan.institute/article/big-city-pensions-and-the-urban-doom-loop#new_tab

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Key Findings:

  • Pension spending increased in all of the 10 largest American cities over the last decade, with a few cities experiencing a doubling or even tripling of their expenditures in 2021 dollars.
  • Almost all cities saw an increase in pension spending per employee.
  • There is large variation in the amount per employee that American cities are spending on pensions.
  • To respond to rising pension demands, some cities have reduced employment, often in the area of public safety.
  • A worsening market environment for pension funds will necessitate increased pension expenditures by cities in 2023 and beyond, exacerbating pressures to limit or reduce employment and, thus, city services.

Author(s): Daniel DiSalvo, Jordan McGillis

Publication Date: 6 April 2023

Publication Site: Manhattan Institute

New York Common Commits $1.3 Billion to Sustainable Program

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.ai-cio.com/news/new-york-common-commits-1-3-billion-to-sustainable-program/

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The $242.3 billion New York State Common Retirement Fund has committed $1.3 billion to two funds as part of its Sustainable Investments and Climate Solutions program. It also earmarked more than $600 million to alternative investments in February.

The pension program committed $1 billion to funds tracking the MSCI World ex USA Climate Change Index, which overweights companies expected to benefit from the transition to a low-carbon economy and underweights companies facing greater climate change risks. A company’s carbon intensity, climate risk management, potential stranded assets, physical risk exposure and development of climate solution products and services are the key factors assessing these rankings.

….

Finally, within the pension fund’s emerging manager program, which invests in newer, smaller and diverse firms, $15 million was allocated to the Empire GCM RE Anchor Fund, which will focus on creating and acquiring industrial outdoor storage in the Netherlands, Germany and Sweden.

Author(s): Michael Katz

Publication Date: 10 April 2023

Publication Site: ai-CIO

Covid National Emergency Ends

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://kelleyk.substack.com/p/covid-national-emergency-ends

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Biden signed H.J.Res. 7, which ended the national emergency for Covid. Both the text of the bill, and the corresponding press release from the White House are short and sweet. The White House recently said Biden “strongly opposes HJ Res 7,” but that he would sign the bill if it passed. It passed with bipartisan support in both the House.

One thing that is tied to the national emergency is an extension of COBRA deadlines for people who are out of work. These deadlines are extended during the “outbreak period” which ends 60 days after the end of the national emergency.

The DHS rules for vaccine mandates for foreign travelers at land border crossings from Canada and Mexico rely on the national emergency as their legal basis, so theoretically they will end with the national emergency. But there has been no official actions to lift those rules, and I suspect the White House expects this vaccine mandate to continue for at least another month. (See section on travel vaccine mandates further down for more details.)

Author(s): Kelly K

Publication Date: 11 April 2023

Publication Site: Check Your Work

State Pensioners Can Learn Lots From Rhode Island And Ohio Teachers

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://pensionwarriorsdwardsiedle.substack.com/p/state-pensioners-can-learn-lots-from

Excerpt:

Finally, and most important, this month there is an election for one active, or contributing member seat on the STRS board—the outcome of which will be determined in early May. If the reform coalition candidate wins this seat, it’s likely control of the board will shift. Then the concerns of the state auditor and reform-minded members will be addressed regarding the need to restore transparency, lower investment fees paid to Wall Street, improve investment performance and move toward restoring benefits previously promised. If so, STRS Ohio’s participant-driven reforms may serve as a template for all of the nation’s public pensions. (On the other hand, if our request for public records is granted by the Ohio Supreme Court later this year—and court-ordered transparency ensues—there may be little need for board action because any mismanagement or wrongdoing will have been exposed to the public.)

But here’s the big picture: Since all public pensions in America have moved like a herd, pouring over $1 trillion into many of the same high-cost, high-risk secretive alternative investments, if any single state pension—such as Rhode Island, or Ohio STRS—restores full transparency and releases alternative investment information to the public revealing widespread industry abuses and violations of law, all participants in public pensions which have also invested in these funds, as well as taxpayers, will benefit. One obscure pension fund board vote in Ohio could ultimately force the transparency and accountability Wall Street has successfully resisted for decades.

Author(s): Edward Siedle

Publication Date: 11 April 2023

Publication Site: Pension Warriors on substack

The Sustainability of State & Local Pensions: A Public Finance Approach

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://crr.bc.edu/briefs-state-local-pensions/the-sustainability-of-state-local-pensions-a-public-finance-approach/

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Key findings:

  • Many experts favor full prefunding of state and local pensions to maintain fiscal sustainability, which means big contribution hikes.
  • This analysis explores an alternative: stabilizing pension debt as a share of GDP.
  • Under current contribution rates, baseline projections show no sign of a major crisis in the next two decades even if asset returns are low.
  • Yet, many plans will be at risk over the long term of exhausting their assets, so action will be needed.
  • Plans can reach a sustainable footing by stabilizing their debt-to-GDP ratio, with much smaller contribution hikes than under full funding.

Author(s): Louise Sheiner

Publication Date: 11 April 2023

Publication Site: Center for Retirement Research at Boston College

The Impact of Rising Rates on U.S. Insurer Investments

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://content.naic.org/sites/default/files/capital-markets-special-reports-impact-of-rising-rates.pdf

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As corporate bonds are mainly fixed rate, their relative value will decrease as floating rate investments
become more attractive with higher benchmark rates. That is, bond prices will fall as yields rise to make
them more attractive, given that their fixed-rate coupons will be lower. About half of insurer bond
investments are corporate bonds, and the vast majority of U.S. insurer corporate bond investments are
investment grade credit quality. From January 2022 to January 2023, the ICE Bank of America (BofA)
Investment Grade Corporate Bond Index, which measures the performance of investment grade
corporate debt, was down by about 14%.


Corporate bond yields have increased significantly since the beginning of 2022 with rising interest rates
and widening credit spreads. As of year-end 2022, investment grade and high-yield corporate bond
yields averaged 5.5% and 8.9%, respectively (refer to Table 1). Investment grade yields increased by
approximately 270 bps during 2022, while speculative-grade yields increased by about 370 bps.

Author(s): Jennifer Johnson and Michele Wong

Publication Date: 23 Feb 2023

Publication Site: NAIC Capital Markets Special Report