Mortality with Meep – Excess Deaths through September 2021 – Winter is Coming

Video description:

A look at the pattern of weekly deaths, all causes, for the entire United States through the beginning of September 2021, as well as: California Texas New York (minus NYC) New York City Pennsylvania Illinois CDC excess mortality dashboard: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/co…

Publication Date: 17 Sept 2021

Author: Mary Pat Campbell

Publication Site: Meep’s Math Matters at Youtube

Mortality Nuggets: NYT Misleads, COVID Deaths Down, and Car Crash Fatalities Up

Link: https://marypatcampbell.substack.com/p/mortality-nuggets-nyt-misleads-covid

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Excerpt:

I want you to notice something — the blue bars are the “with COVID” portion of deaths, and the chartreuse bars are the ones “without COVID”. The bars are weekly counts of deaths when they occurred. Ignore the most recent weeks because they don’t have full data reported yet.

The red pluses indicate excess mortality, defined as exceeding the 95th percentile for expected mortality for that week (so it includes seaonality). You can see the excess mortality from the 2017-2018 flu season, which was bad for a flu season.

The non-COVID mortality has been in excessive mortality range for almost all 2020 after March. But since the beginning of 2021, it has dropped off…. and COVID mortality has also dropped off.

I think we may be almost in “normal” range soon. We shall see!

Author(s): Mary Pat Campbell

Publication Date: 13 June 2021

Publication Site: STUMP at substack

Positivity with Paul: Episode 5 | Mary Pat Campbell

Video description:

Welcome to another episode of Positivity with Paul, where I find Fellow Actuaries – pun intended – for a conversational Q&A on their life.  The focus is on their journey along the actuarial exam path and beyond, some of the challenges they faced, and how those challenges helped shape them to become who they are today.   

To give some brief context on becoming an Actuary, there’s a number of actuarial exams that one has to go through.  These exams are very rigorous and typically, only the top 40% pass at each sitting, They cover complex mathematical topics like statistics and financial modelling but also insurance, investments, regulatory and accounting.  Candidates can study up to 5 months per sitting and they will take 7 to 10 years on average to earn their Fellowship degree. To that end, I launched this series of podcasts because I was curious about what drove my guests to surmount trials and tribulations to get to the end goal of becoming an Actuary.    

My guest in this interview is Mary Pat Campbell. Mary Pat is an actuary working in Connecticut, investigating life insurance and annuity industry trends. She has been interested in exploring mortality trends, public finance and public pensions as an avocation. Some of these explorations can be found at her blog: stump.marypat.org. Mary Pat is a fellow of the Society of Actuaries and a member of the American Academy of Actuaries. She has been working in the life/annuity industry since 2003. She holds a master’s degree in math from New York University and undergraduate degrees in math and physics from North Carolina State University. In this podcast, Mary Pat discusses similarities in concepts between physics and actuarial science, the current low interest rate environment and lessons learnt in the insurance sector from the financial crisis in 2008-2009. Hope you enjoy this all-inclusive interview! Paul Kandola

Author(s): Paul Kandola

Publication Date: 11 June 2021

Publication Site: Integral Actuarial at YouTube

St. Francis Dam Disaster – Frank Black and the Catholics

Description:

It’s not just a song, it’s a history lesson!

St. Francis Dam Disaster by Frank Black and the Catholics off of the album Dog in the Sand (2001 Cooking Vinyl)

Many of the pictures were culled from https://scvhistory.com/scvhistory/stfrancis.htm

They have a lot of info on the St. Francis Dam disaster and it’s worth checking out if you want to see more.

Image:

Author(s): Skippy .Bob

Publication Date: 1 December 2013

Publication Site: YouTube

Mortality with Meep – U.S. Mortality Preliminary 2020 Experience

Description:

Reviewing the recent Society of Actuaries report on preliminary mortality results in U.S. population, with a focus on increased mortality from non-COVID causes. U.S. Population Mortality

Observations, Preview of 2020 Experience Society of Actuaries research:

https://www.soa.org/resources/research-reports/2021/us-population-observations-preview/

https://www.soa.org/globalassets/assets/files/resources/research-report/2021/us-population-observations-preview.pdf

Author(s): Mary Pat Campbell

Publication Date: 21 May 2021

Publication Site: Meep’s Math Matters on YouTube

ACLI Webinar Series: Navigating Credit Trends and Market Challenges

Video:

ACLI learning link: https://learning.acli.com/product?p=acli-webinar-series-navigating-credit-trends-and-market-challenges

Description:

It seems that not a week goes by without an announcement of another merger/acquisition transaction in the life insurance industry. With an overlay of persistent capital market volatility and a sharply increased focus on ESG risk factors, life insurance executives will have their plates full of challenges for the balance of 2021. Whether large national carriers or smaller regional players, virtually every life company will experience changes in their operating environment. Our panelists will share their perspectives on how these trends will shape the insurance markets and discuss the implications for credit and risk management.

Author(s): Peter Giacone, KBRA; Celeste Guth, Erinn King, David Marcinek

Publication Date: 13 May 2021

Publication Site: ACLI on Vimeo

Ask the Experts Ep.12: Biden’s infrastructure plan and America’s largest cities

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Description:

Watch a recording of Truth in Accounting’s virtual event with special guest Steve Malanga, senior editor at City Journal. In this episode, we discussed the financial troubles of America’s largest cities and the effects of Biden’s infrastructure plan.

Author(s): Bill Bergman, Sheila Weinberg, Steve Malanga

Publication Date: 14 May 2021

Publication Site: Truth in Accounting at YouTube

Testimonies for full accrual based accounting during GASB public hearings

Description:

This video contains 15 testimonies before the Governmental Accounting Standards Board (GASB) in March and April of 2021 by citizens, elected officials, think tank leaders, and more. All of whom argued against GASB’s proposals to continue cash-basis-like accounting for governmental funds statements. Cash-basis accounting supports bad government budgeting practices like counting borrowing proceeds as revenue, and underfunding pension funding requirements, in order to “balance budgets.” On the other hand, full accrual accounting shows expenses as they are incurred, especially when a government makes a promise to pay in the future.

Publication Date: 6 May 2021

Publication Site: Truth in Accounting channel at YouTube

Morning with Meep – ASOP 56 – Modeling

Description:

I take a look at the Actuarial Standard of Practice 56: Modeling — in effect as of October 2020.

Links: Keep Up With the Standards: On ASOP 56, Modeling

https://www.soa.org/sections/modeling/modeling-newsletter/2021/april/mp-2021-04-campbell/

ASOP 56: Modeling

http://www.actuarialstandardsboard.org/asops/modeling-3/

Author(s): Mary Pat Campbell

Publication Date: 3 May 2021

Publication Site: Meep’s Math Matters at Youtube