Author: Mary Pat Campbell

Mantic Monday: Judging April COVID Predictions

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mantic-monday-judging-april-covid

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Excerpt:

In April 2020, I made my yearly predictions, and many of them were about the (then new) coronavirus pandemic.

Two other people on Less Wrong, Zvi and Bucky, decided to test themselves against me by trying to predict the same questions. Zvi saw my answers beforehand; Bucky didn’t. Here’s how we did (except where otherwise stated, all predictions are for 12/31/20):

Author(s): Scott Alexander

Publication Date: 22 February 2021

Publication Site: Astral Codex Ten

Covid 2/18: Vaccines Still Work

Mary Pat Campbell
Covid 2/18: Vaccines Still Work

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Excerpt:

Oh, right, you came here to learn about Covid-19 news. The short news is great. Infections and deaths are down much faster than anticipated. The vaccine news is less great. The process continues to accelerate, but that acceleration was slower than expected, and there’s still lots of FUD about what vaccinated people can and can’t ‘safely’ do and little movement yet towards saner policy in other ways, although there are signs of moving in that direction. The new strains aren’t here in force yet, but it seems likely that will happen soon.

One potentially big thing we learned is the study from infected NBA players, which suggests that the English strain causes infections to play out over a longer period of time than the classic strain, with all the implications of that.

Another was that it got even clearer than it already was that the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are highly effective after only one dose, and that First Doses First would be a vast improvement while we continue to have much less vaccine than we need.

Author(s): TheZvi

Publication Date: 18 February 2021

Publication Site: Don’t Worry About the Vase

Why Cuomo Should Be Worried About a Federal Probe

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.wsj.com/articles/why-cuomo-should-be-worried-about-a-federal-probe-11613945987

Excerpt:

What caught the Justice Department’s eye was Gov. Cuomo’s claim that New York’s nursing-home deaths were lower than many other states’ and that his March 25 order didn’t contribute to the extremely high number of New Yorkers who died from Covid. Given the virus’s disproportionate effect on the elderly, sick and frail, this seemed unlikely. On Aug. 26, Justice’s Civil Rights Division, relying on its jurisdiction to investigate government-run facilities under the federal Civil Rights of Institutionalized Persons Act, asked the Cuomo administration for data on New York’s publicly run nursing homes, which account for less than 5% of nursing homes in the state.

In September, New York produced data showing it had underreported Covid deaths in government-run nursing homes by a third. The undercounting appeared to be due to several factors. First, when a nursing-home resident who contracted Covid died after being transported to a hospital for treatment, New York didn’t count it as a “nursing-home death.” Second, New York didn’t include deaths occurring before the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services began requiring Covid reporting from nursing homes in mid-May. CMS made reporting prior Covid deaths optional, and New York apparently elected to keep the information to itself.

Author(s): John B. Daukas

Publication Date: 21 February 2021

Publication Site: Wall Street Journal

A National Disgrace

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.city-journal.org/federal-budget-process-disaster-in-waiting

Excerpt:

The Budget Control Act of 1974 is the most misnamed congressional act in American history. Far from “controlling” anything, its passage caused the federal budget process to spin out of control. In the six years preceding the act, with the Vietnam War raging, annual deficits averaged $11.3 billion. In the first six years after the Budget Control Act, with the war over, they averaged $54 billion.

What happened? The Budget Control Act cut the president out of the budget process by removing his political leverage, leaving Congress in near-total control of the budget. Congressmen have a strong incentive to bring home the bacon, both to their voters and, increasingly, to their donors. Logrolling—you vote for my project and I’ll vote for yours—is, all too often, how Congress works.

Before 1920, there was no unified budget process. Executive departments simply submitted their budget requests directly to Congress. What kept spending under control was a strong political consensus across both parties that the budget should be balanced if at all possible. That idea only began to erode in the 1960s, with a misuse of Keynesian theory.

Author(s): John Steele Gordon

Publication Date: 19 February 2021

Publication Site: City Journal

GASB Fact Sheet: Financial Reporting Model Improvements

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.gasb.org/cs/Satellite?c=Document_C&cid=1176176133242&pagename=GASB%2FDocument_C%2FDocumentPage

Executive Summary: https://www.gasb.org/cs/Satellite?c=Document_C&cid=1176176134838&pagename=GASB%2FDocument_C%2FDocumentPage

Excerpt:

Would the GASB’s proposal treat borrowing as revenue?

No. In fact, the proceeds of bond sales, bank loans, and other forms of borrowing are not reported as revenue in the governmental funds under the existing standards. Under the proposal, those proceeds increase fund balance in the governmental funds but are reported as inflows (not revenues) in the resource flows statement. The governmental funds
statements are intended to report inflows and outflows of short-term financial resources, not revenues and expenses; that is the purpose of the government-wide financial statements. In the government-wide financial statements, the borrowing proceeds are recorded as an increase in cash and an increase in long-term debt.

Fund balance is the difference between assets and liabilities in the governmental funds. The portion of fund balance that comes from borrowing should not be mistaken for resources that can be used by a government for any purpose, such as paying bills or employee
salaries—that would be assigned fund balance and unassigned fund balance. Unspent borrowing proceeds are reported in accounts such as fund balance restricted for capital projects; in other words, in this example, those resources can be used only for investment in roads, buildings, equipment, and other capital assets.

Date Accessed: 22 February 2021

Publication Site: GASB

Sources of Tax Revenue: U.S. vs. OECD

Mary Pat Campbell
Sources of Tax Revenue: U.S. vs. OECD

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Excerpt:

Compared to the OECD average, the United States relies significantly more on individual income taxes and property taxes. While OECD countries on average raised 24 percent of total tax revenue from individual income taxes, the share in the United States was 41.5 percent, a difference of 17.5 percentage points. This is partially because more than half of business income in the United States is reported on individual tax returns. OECD countries on average raised 5.6 percent of total tax revenue from property taxes, compared to 12.1 percent in the United States.

The United States relies much less on consumption taxes than other OECD countries. Taxes on goods and services accounted for only 17.6 percent of total tax revenue in the United States, compared to 32.3 percent in the OECD. This is because all OECD countries, except the United States, levy value-added taxes (VAT) at relatively high rates. State and local sales tax rates in the United States are relatively low by comparison.

Author(s): Cristina Enache

Publication Date: 17 February 2021

Publication Site: Tax Foundation

State closes COVID recovery facilities as nursing home cases continue to fall

Mary Pat Campbell
State closes COVID recovery facilities as nursing home cases continue to fall

Excerpt:

The state is closing the two COVID-19 recovery centers for nursing home residents in Meriden and Torrington because the number of infections has fallen to the point that they are no longer necessary.

“Athena Health Care Systems was pleased to partner with the state of Connecticut to operate COVID recovery centers in Meriden and Torrington to help some of our most vulnerable patients recover as well as keep our nursing home residents safe,” Athena Director of Marketing Timothy Brown said.

“We are pleased to say that we are now able to close both recovery centers. It really is positive news — it means that things are going in the right direction when it comes to this pandemic and that the recovery center model has worked.”

Author(s): DAVE ALTIMARI

Publication Date: 18 February 2021

Publication Site: CT Mirror

Robinhood, Citadel CEOs Grilled by Lawmakers in Wake of GameStop Saga

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.wsj.com/articles/robinhood-citadel-others-prepare-for-the-gamestop-spotlight-in-washington-11613655854?mod=djemwhatsnews

Excerpt:

Robinhood Markets Inc. Chief Executive Officer Vlad Tenev offered an apology for the company’s decision to temporarily curb trading in some stocks, including GameStop Corp. , on Jan. 28 amid extraordinary volatility.

“Despite the unprecedented market conditions in January, at the end of the day, what happened is unacceptable to us,” Mr. Tenev said after being questioned at a congressional hearing Thursday.

His apology came after House Financial Services Committee Chairwoman Maxine Waters (D., Calif.) interrupted the Robinhood CEO during his opening remarks. Her request was unusual as witnesses are allowed to make opening statements before taking questions from lawmakers.

Author(s): Paul Kiernan and Peter Rudegeair

Publication Date: 18 February 2021

Publication Site: Wall Street Journal

Covid-19 Was Spreading in China Before First Confirmed Cases, Fresh Evidence Suggests

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19-was-spreading-in-china-before-first-confirmed-cases-fresh-evidence-suggests-11613730600?mod=djemwhatsnews

Excerpt:

New evidence from China is affirming what epidemiologists have long suspected: The coronavirus likely began spreading unnoticed around the Wuhan area in November 2019, before it exploded in multiple different locations throughout the city in December.

Chinese authorities have identified 174 confirmed Covid-19 cases around the city from December 2019, said World Health Organization researchers, enough to suggest there were many more mild, asymptomatic or otherwise undetected cases than previously thought.

Many of the 174 cases had no known connection to the market that was initially considered the source of the outbreak, according to information gathered by WHO investigators during the four-week mission to China to examine the origins of the virus. Chinese authorities declined to give the WHO team raw data on these cases and potential earlier ones, team members said.

Author(s): Betsy McKay in New York, Drew Hinshaw in Warsaw and Jeremy Page in Beijing

Publication Date: 19 February 2021

Publication Site: Wall Street Journal

New Jersey Governor to Propose Full Pension Payment for First Time Since 1996

Mary Pat Campbell

Link: https://www.wsj.com/articles/new-jersey-governor-to-propose-first-full-pension-payment-since-1996-11614028204

Excerpt:

New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy is expected to propose making a full payment to the state’s chronically underfunded pension system for the first time since 1996, a sign that the blow from the pandemic to all states’ finances isn’t as brutal as officials originally feared.

Mr. Murphy, a Democrat, will call for a $6.4 billion payment to the pension system in his budget address Tuesday, senior members of his administration said. The Murphy administration has been ramping up pension payments and originally intended on making a payment of $5.76 billion for the fiscal year that begins in July.

In New Jersey, as in many other states, tax revenues have outperformed earlier projections. When the pandemic hit, states projected revenue would drop off significantly. State revenues ended up falling 1.6% in fiscal year 2020 and were 3.4% lower than projected before the pandemic, according to the National Association of State Budget Officers. While states expect revenues to fall 4.4% in fiscal 2021, which ends on June 30 for most, 18 states are seeing revenues come in above forecasts.

Author(s): Joseph De Avila

Publication Date: 22 February 2021

Publication Site: Wall Street Journal

NJ To Make “Full” Pension Payment

Mary Pat Campbell
NJ To Make “Full” Pension Payment

Excerpt:

That $6.4 billion is what the actuaries hired by New Jersey for the specific purpose of providing absurdly low contribution amounts came out with for the 7/1/21 to 6/30/22 plan year. It includes a massive amortization portion to make up for decades of absurdly low contribution amounts (some of which were not even deposited). 

Author(s): John Bury

Publication Date: 22 February 2021

Publication Site: Burypensions