Mantic Monday: Judging April COVID Predictions




In April 2020, I made my yearly predictions, and many of them were about the (then new) coronavirus pandemic.

Two other people on Less WrongZvi and Bucky, decided to test themselves against me by trying to predict the same questions. Zvi saw my answers beforehand; Bucky didn’t. Here’s how we did (except where otherwise stated, all predictions are for 12/31/20):

Author(s): Scott Alexander

Publication Date: 22 February 2021

Publication Site: Astral Codex Ten