In April 2020, I made my yearly predictions, and many of them were about the (then new) coronavirus pandemic.
Two other people on Less Wrong, Zvi and Bucky, decided to test themselves against me by trying to predict the same questions. Zvi saw my answers beforehand; Bucky didn’t. Here’s how we did (except where otherwise stated, all predictions are for 12/31/20):
Author(s): Scott Alexander
Publication Date: 22 February 2021
Publication Site: Astral Codex Ten