Bond Yields Surge to Start 2022, What’s Ahead?




I find the prospect of 7 rate hikes in 2022 more than a bit amusing.  Here’s a good way of looking at things.

0 to 2 hikes: 33.8%

3 hikes: 30.2% 

4 or more hikes: 36.0%

The median projection is now a bit more than 3 hikes this year. 4 and 2 rate hikes are at nearly equal odds, but 5, 6, an 7 hikes rated a combined 13% vs 0 to 1 hike at a combined 10.8%

The change in rate hike odds today reflect the surge in yields that also happened today.

Author(s): Mike Shedlock

Publication Date: 3 Jan 2022

Publication Site: Mish Talk