How Pandemic-Driven Revenue Shortfalls Could Affect State Pension Contributions



As states respond to the Covid-19 pandemic, many also face severe revenue shortfalls because of the economic downturn. These gaps between resources and planned spending pose immediate challenges for policymakers, who must balance budgets while addressing increased demand for public health and other essential services. Some states have already tried to cut costs by reducing or delaying contributions to public pension plans, and others may consider doing so if federal aid to states does not materialize.

The pandemic’s effect on state budgets has been significant. Fiscal year 2020 marked the first time that state general fund revenues declined since the Great Recession, with preliminary projections issued since March showing that states expected fiscal 2021 revenues to fall below initial estimates by about 10%, on average. More recent estimates indicate that state revenue shortfalls could total more than $300 billion cumulatively over fiscal years 2020-22.

Author(s): David Draine & Stephanie Connolly

Publication Date: 13 January 2021

Publication Site: Pew Trusts